Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Economic overview
- Business investment
- Business health
- Special focus: Construction
- What’s next?
Economic Overview
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- GDP growth returns in Q3
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- Figure 1: UK GDP growth rate, 2012 – Q3 2019
- Figure 2: GDP growth levels in major EU economies, September 2019 (% annual change)
- Bank rate to go up, or down?
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- Figure 3: Bank rate, by date of adjustment, 2008-18
- CPI falls below target
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- Figure 4: Consumer Price Index, 12-month rate, October 2018 – October 2019
- The value of the pound
- Weekly earnings still below pre-recession levels
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- Figure 5: Year-on-year change to average weekly earnings, August 2018 – August 2019
Business Health
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- SMEs leading turnover growth
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- Figure 6: Annual UK business turnover by business sector, % change, 2019
- Business investment and confidence suffering from uncertainty
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- Figure 7: UK business investment, £ million, Q1 2015 – Q2 2019
- Figure 8: ICAEW UK National Business ConfidenceTM index, Q4 2013 – Q4 2019
- Productivity – the UK weakness
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- Figure 9: Labour productivity, output per hour, Q1 2017-Q2 2019
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- Figure 10: Turnover per employee, by size of company, start of 2019
- Business insolvencies continue recent trend
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- Figure 11: Company insolvencies in England and Wales, seasonally adjusted, Q2 2017 – Q3 2019
Special Focus: Construction
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- Figure 12: UK GDP, new construction and R&M growth rate comparison, 2012 – Q3 2019
- Housing
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- Figure 13: UK housing completions, 1949-2018
- Private industrial construction
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- Figure 14: Private industrial construction output, 2012-19
- Private commercial construction
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- Figure 15: Private commercial construction output, 2012-19
- Public non-residential construction
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- Figure 16: Public non-residential construction output, 1992-2019
- Infrastructure
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- Figure 17: New infrastructure output, 1980-2019
- R&M
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- Figure 18: Repair and maintenance output, by sector, 2012-19
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What’s Next?
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- “Not another one”?
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- Figure 19: Growth achieved by companies, by size, start of 2019
- Weak GDP growth projected
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- Figure 20: Comparison of World, Euro-area and UK GDP forecasts, 2019-22
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- Figure 21: Forecast UK GDP growth rate, 2019-22
- A synchronized slowdown
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- Figure 22: OECD Business Confidence Index (BCI), October 2016 – October 2019
- Falling bond yields signal uncertainty over the global economy
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- Figure 23: Government bond yields in selected countries, % yield, 17 November 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Methodology
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