Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Economic overview
- Business health
- Special focus: services
- What’s next?
Economic Overview
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- GDP contracts for the first time since 2012
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- Figure 1: UK GDP growth rate, 2012 – Q2 2019
- Bank rate remains at 0.75% as the BoE exercises caution
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- Figure 2: Bank rate, by date of adjustment, 2008-18
- Currency-driven inflation subsides to leave CPI on target
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- Figure 3: Consumer Price Index, 12-month rate, July 2018-July 2019
- Weekly earnings close to recovering ground lost since 2008
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- Figure 4: Year-on-year change to average weekly earnings, June 2018-June 2019
Business Health
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- Future turnover performance threatened by economic uncertainty
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- Figure 5: Annual UK business turnover by business sector, % change, 2018
- Business investment and confidence recover slightly but prospects remain negative
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- Figure 6: UK business investment, £ million, Q1 2015-Q2 2019
- Figure 7: ICAEW UK National Business ConfidenceTM index, Q3 2013-Q3 2019
- Business insolvencies stay within recent trends
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- Figure 8: Company insolvencies in England and Wales, seasonally adjusted, Q1 2017-Q2 2019
Special Focus: B2B Services
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- Figure 9: EU most favoured nation tariffs on selected product groups and their share in EU imports
- Effects of a no-deal Brexit on UK services
- Legal services
- Estate agents
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- Figure 10: Percentage change in UK residential house prices by selected regions, all types of property, September 2015-June 2019
- Figure 11: UK residential home sales volumes by selected regions, all types of property, 000s (left and right axis), October 2015-April 2019
- Courier and express delivery
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What’s Next?
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- GDP growth faces the risk of recession in 2019
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- Figure 12: UK GDP growth rate, 2012-Q2 2019
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- Figure 13: Forecasted UK GDP growth rate, 2019-22
- Economic uncertainty will continue to hold back growth and investment
- Global economy faces headwinds from political and economic uncertainty
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- Figure 14: OECD Business Confidence Index (BCI), June 2016-June 2019
- Falling bond yields signal uncertainty over the global economy
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- Figure 15: Government bond yields in selected countries, % yield, 22 August 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Methodology
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