Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
- Particular challenges among pasta mixes
- Relatively little brand resonance
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- Figure 2: Attitudes toward pasta and noodles, February 2019
- The opportunities
- Tap into younger consumers while their tastes are diverse
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- Figure 3: Usage of pasta and noodles, by generation, February 2019
- Countering pasta’s negative health perception
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- Figure 4: Pasta/noodle innovations of interest, February 2019
- Premium indulgence
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- Figure 5: Pasta/noodle innovations of interest, February 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- No market recovery in sight
- Fresh options outpacing growth of shelf-stable varieties
- Restaurant competition leveraging quality and healthy appeal
- Dieting trends continue to vilify carbs
Market Size and Forecast
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- Growth continues to be elusive
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Consumer interest in fresh impacts shelf-stable options
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- Figure 8: Sales of pasta and noodles, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Channel sales likewise stagnant
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales of pasta and noodles, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
Market Perspective
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- Restaurants as a pasta competitor
Market Factors
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- Growing consumer confidence, DPI could lead consumers to dine out
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- Figure 10: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2017-October 2018
- Carb backlash continues...in different forms
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Little change among share leaders
- Fresh, premium appeal drives refrigerated options
- Pasta mixes in need of update
- Exploring plants
Company and Brand Sales of Pasta and Noodles
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- Market share leader improves position, despite stagnant sales
- Sales of pasta and noodles by company
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- Figure 11: Sales of pasta and noodles, by company, 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Refrigerated pasta leveraging fresh and premium appeal
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- Figure 12: Pasta introductions, by storage type, 2014-18
What’s Struggling?
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- Struggling pasta mix category needs focus
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- Figure 13: Plant-based pasta introductions, 2018
What’s Next?
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- Leveraging plant-based appeal with a cleaner label
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- Figure 14: Plant-based pasta introductions, 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Dry pasta remains a staple
- Pasta's diversity resonating with younger consumers
- Pasta's price and ease of preparation resonating
- Healthy opportunities
- Improvements for pasta
Consumption of Pasta and Noodles
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- Consumers most likely to opt for dry pasta
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- Figure 15: Consumption of pasta and noodles, February 2019
- Younger consumers embracing a diversity of pasta types
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- Figure 16: Consumption of dry pasta and noodles, by age, February 2019
- Figure 17: Consumption of non-dry pasta options, by age, February 2019
- Parents more likely to turn to dry and fresh pasta
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- Figure 18: Consumption of dry pasta options, by parental status, February 2019
- Figure 19: Consumption of non-dry options, by parental status, February 2019
Usage of Pasta and Noodles
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- Pasta’s diversity on display
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- Figure 20: Usage of pasta and noodles, February 2019
- Younger consumers use pasta in a diversity of occasions
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- Figure 21: Usage of pasta and noodles, by generation, February 2019
- Figure 22: Usage of pasta and noodles, by household income, February 2019
- Pasta’s use as a snack surges among Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 23: Usage of pasta and noodles, by Hispanic origin, February 2019
Pasta and Noodle Drivers
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- Ease, cost lead reasons for pasta/noodle usage
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- Figure 24: Pasta and noodle driver opinions, February 2019
- Dry’s appeal could resonate with refrigerated pasta fans
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- Figure 25: Correspondence analysis methodology – Qualities associated with pasta, February 2019
Innovation Potential
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- Protein, vegetables, fiber of strong interest
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- Figure 26: Pasta/noodle innovations of interest, February 2019
- Portability resonating with younger consumers
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- Figure 27: Potential pasta/noodle innovation, by generation, February 2019
- Healthy concept potential among Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 28: Healthy pasta/noodle innovation, by Hispanic origin, February 2019
- Healthy attributes form the core of pasta’s potential
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- Figure 29: TURF analysis – Potential innovations in pasta/noodles, February 2019
Repertoire Analysis
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- Half of consumers eat a wide diversity of pasta
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- Figure 30: Repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, February 2019
- Younger consumers eating a wide range of pasta
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- Figure 31: Repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, by age, February 2019
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- Figure 32: Repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, by parental status, February 2019
- Leveraging pasta’s diversity to increase appeal
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- Figure 33: Pasta usage, by repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, February 2019
- Leveraging freshness’ association with natural
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- Figure 34: Potential innovations in pasta/noodles, by repertoire of pasta/noodle consumption, February 2019
Attitudes toward Pasta and Noodles
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- Opportunities for healthy pasta
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- Figure 35: Attitudes toward pasta and noodles, February 2019
- Health, even more than price, factors into Hispanic pasta purchase
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- Figure 36: Buying habits of pasta and noodles, by Hispanic origin, February 2019
Pasta and Noodles by Consumer Segmentation
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- Food and Drink Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 37: Food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2019
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- Figure 38: Pasta consumption, by food/drink consumer segmentation, February 2019
- Adventure Eaters opt for variety of pasta types
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- Figure 39: Repertoire of dry pasta/noodle, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
- Non-dry pastas appeal to Adventure Eaters and Quality Seekers
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- Figure 40: Non-dry pasta/noodle consumption, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
- Premium’s appeal to Adventure Eaters
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- Figure 41: Potential pasta and noodle driver innovation, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
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- Figure 42: Potential healthy pasta and noodle driver innovation, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
- Quality Seekers, Adventure Eaters willing to pay a premium for healthy pasta
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward pasta and noodles, by food/drink segmentation, February 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 44: Total US sales and forecast of pasta and noodles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 45: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta and noodles, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales of pasta and noodles, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry pasta and noodles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta mixes, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of pasta mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pasta, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pasta, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated pasta, at current prices, 2013-22
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated pasta, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales of pasta and noodles, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
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- Figure 56: US supermarket sales of pasta and noodles, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 57: US sales of pasta and noodles through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 58: Multi-outlet sales of dry pasta and noodles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
- Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of pasta mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
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- Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of frozen pasta, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
- Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated pasta, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018-19
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Appendix – Correspondence Analysis – Methodology
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- Figure 62: Correspondence analysis methodology – Qualities associated with pasta, February 2019
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TURF Analysis – Methodology
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- Figure 63: Table – TURF analysis – Potential innovations in pasta/noodles, February 2019
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