Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Overview
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2013-23
- The issues
- Lapsed consumers are out of the market for good
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- Figure 2: Increased CSD consumption motivators, January 2019
- CSD brands contend with changing preferences and demographics
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- Figure 3: CSD attitudes, by generation, January 2019
- The opportunities
- Heavy users are a loyal consumer base
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- Figure 4: CSD attitudes, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
- Keep at-risk consumers engaged with mini treats
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- Figure 5: Reasons for drinking CSDs, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
- Craft CSDs give way to mocktails and super-premium mixers
- CSD companies change with the times
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- CSD market grows on the strong performance of diet brands
- CSDs contend with trendy sparkling water
- Opportunity for brands to elevate the can
Market Size and Forecast
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- CSD sales on the upswing
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Positive growth for both regular and diet CSDs
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- Figure 8: Sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Perspective
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- Sparkling water is the biggest threat to CSDs
- Diversification is the name of the game
Market Factors
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- A series of legal wins for big pop
- Will bottled water’s packaging crisis spill over to CSDs?
- Demographic changes dampen soda’s future
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- Figure 10: Distribution of US population by age, 2018-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Brands succeed by being happy and small
- Craft CSDs underwhelm
- Cater to the alcoholic beverage drinking occasion
Company and Brand Sales of CSDs
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- Most major brands enjoy sales growth
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- Figure 11: Multi-outlet sales of regular carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Diet CSDs stage a comeback
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- Figure 12: Multi-outlet sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Coke becomes Feel Good Inc.
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- Figure 13: Average sentiment of Coca-Cola, across Instagram and Twitter, June 1, 2018-March 1, 2019
- The diet CSD story: a name change, fun flavors, and consumers’ love of aspartame
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- Figure 14: Sales of diet carbonated soft drinks, 2013-18
- Game on!
- Thinking small
What’s Struggling?
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- Restaurants are dropping CSDs
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- Figure 15: CSDs on menus, change in incidence and penetration, Q4 2015-Q4 2018
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- Figure 16: AFH CSD consumption, October 2016-January 2019
- Craft isn’t the CSD savior
- Go for fun over health
What’s Next?
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- CSDs can capitalize on falling alcohol consumption
- Botanicals are an opportunity for premium CSDs
- Using texture to provide experience
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Majority of consumers drink a variety of CSDs
- Nothing will bring lapsed consumers back
- Keep consumers engaged by embracing the treat occasion
CSD Consumption
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- Four out of five Americans drink CSDs
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- Figure 17: CSD consumption, January 2019
- CSD drinker demographic profiles
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- Figure 18: CSD drinker demographic profile, indexed against all CSD consumers, January 2019
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- Figure 19: CSD drinker demographic profile, indexed against all CSD consumers, January 2019
- Most consumers drink multiple CSD varieties
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- Figure 20: Repertoire analysis, CSD consumption, January 2019
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- Figure 21: Repertoire analysis, CSD consumption, by gender and age, drink four or more types of CSDs, January 2019
CSD Consumption Frequency
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- Diet cola is the most frequently consumed CSD
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- Figure 22: CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
- Only slight variation in heavy and infrequent CSD consumer demos
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- Figure 23: CSD demographic profile by frequency of consumption, indexed against all CSD consumers, January 2019
CSD Format Purchases
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- Opportunity to delight with fountain drinks
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- Figure 24: CSD format purchases, January 2019
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- Figure 25: CSD format purchases, any purchase, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
Reasons for Drinking CSDs
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- Consumers view CSDs as tasty, refreshing treats
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- Figure 26: Reasons for drinking CSDs, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
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- Figure 27: Reasons for drinking CSDs, January 2019
- CSDs fulfill a variety of needs for younger men
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- Figure 28: Reasons for drinking CSDs, by gender and age, January 2019
Reasons for Not Drinking CSDs
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- Sugar is a top of mind consumer concern
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- Figure 29: Reasons for not drinking CSDs, January 2019
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- Figure 30: Figure 31: Reasons for not drinking CSDs, by age, January 2019
Increased CSD Consumption Motivators
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- Say so long to lapsed consumers
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- Figure 32: Increased CSD consumption motivators, January 2019
- Natural CSDs can keep some planned reducers in the market
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- Figure 33: Increased CSD consumption motivators, by CSD attitudes, January 2019
- Flavor innovation excites heavy CSD consumers
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- Figure 34: Increased CSD consumption motivators, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
- Healthy CSD as a time saver?
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- Figure 35: Increased CSD consumption motivators, by food and drink shopper segmentation, January 2019
CSD Flavor Interest
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- Moderate interest in flavor innovation
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- Figure 36: CSD flavor interest, January 2019
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- Figure 37: CSD flavor interest, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
- Hispanic and Asian consumers drive interest in CSD flavors
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- Figure 38: CSD flavor interest, by race/ethnicity, January 2019
CSD Craving Satisfiers
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- Most lapsed consumers don’t get CSD cravings
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- Figure 39: CSD craving satisfiers, January 2019
CSD Attitudes
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- Heavy drinkers are highly brand loyal, but some may cut their CSD consumption
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- Figure 40: CSD attitudes, by CSD consumption frequency, January 2019
- Risk of iGens dropping out of the market
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- Figure 41: CSD attitudes, January 2019
- Midwesterners least concerned with CSD healthfulness
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- Figure 42: CSD attitudes, by region, January 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Purchase Intelligence
- Mintel Market Sizes
- Mintel Food and Drink shopper segmentation
- Social media methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 43: Total US sales and forecast of carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 44: Total US sales and forecast of regular carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 45: Total US sales and forecast of diet carbonated soft drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
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- Figure 47: Total US retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 48: Multi-outlet sales of carbonated soft drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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