Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Overall penetration has room for growth
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- Figure 1: Bakery purchase, November 2018
- Strong ties to special occasions overshadow everyday ones
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- Figure 2: Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2013-23
- ISBs are just not top-of-mind with non-users
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- Figure 3: Reasons for not purchasing from an in-store bakery, November 2018
- The opportunities
- Nudge loyalists and non-users into everyday occasions
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- Figure 4: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, November 2018
- Establish ISBs as a destination with product promotion…
- …and activate tech to connect with shoppers
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, November 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales growth to continue for in-store bakeries
- Sweet successes
- Packaged baked options face challenges
- Economic factors suggest increased spending
Market Size and Forecast
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- ISBs to continue steady growth
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Desserts enjoy sweet success
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- Figure 8: Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2013-23
- Figure 8: Sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, 2013-23
Market Perspective
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- Can in-store bakeries tap into the snack trend?
Market Factors
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- Consumer confidence, rising disposable income bodes well for indulgent purchasing
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- Figure 9: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2018
- Figure 10: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2017-October 2018
- Smaller households equals fewer special-occasion needs
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- Figure 11: Households with own children under age 18, 1960-2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- In-store bakery goods step away from no additives/preservatives claim
- Instead, ISBs turn to free-froms
- Smart signals
What’s Working?
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- Free-from options
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- Figure 12: GNPD fresh bakery launches, by free-from claim, 2014-18
What’s Struggling?
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- Price matters strongly
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- Figure 13: Fresh bakery launches with no additives/preservatives, 2018
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- Figure 14: Key attribute ratings for SE Grocers Bakery Small Croissants
- Claims gone wrong: no additives/preservatives mitigates freshness
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- Figure 15: GNPD fresh bakery launches, by natural/healthy claim, 2014-18
What’s Next?
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- Getting smart to drive connections
- Package deals
- International expansion
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- In-store bakeries resonating with parents
- Same day fresh appeal
- Still room to drive awareness
- BFY indulgences?
- Local news
Bakery Item Purchase
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- Half of consumers utilize in-store bakeries
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- Figure 16: Bakery purchase, November 2018
- Popularity surges among parents
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- Figure 17: Bakery purchase, by presence and age of children, November 2018
- Room for growth among Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 18: Bakery purchase, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2018
Frequency of In-store Bakery Purchase
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- Loyalists and non-users need a nudge into everyday occasions
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- Figure 19: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, November 2018
- Parents are the low-hanging everyday opportunity
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- Figure 20: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, by presence and age of children, November 2018
Reasons for Purchasing from an In-store Bakery
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- Freshness and a little creativity drive purchase
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- Figure 21: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, November 2018
- Consider smaller households
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- Figure 22: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, by age, November 2018
- Broadly engaged younger families suggest positive future growth
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- Figure 23: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, by presence and age of children, November 2018
Why In-store Bakeries Are Not Used
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- ISBs are just not top-of-mind with non-users
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- Figure 24: Reasons for not purchasing from an in-store bakery, November 2018
Claim Interest among Baked Goods
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- Natural, healthy appeal
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- Figure 25: Claims of interest in baked goods, November 2018
- Low-sugar, grains hold interest with older consumers
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- Figure 26: Claims of interest in baked goods, by generation, November 2018
- Stacking up claims: in-store versus stand-alone bakery
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- Figure 27: Ingredient claims of interest in baked goods, by baked good purchase, November 2018
- Merging indulgence with healthy
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- Figure 28: TURF analysis – Ingredient claims of interest in baked goods, November 2018
Smaller-size Options from In-store Bakeries
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- Getting small
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- Figure 29: Interest in smaller-sized options from in-store bakeries, November 2018
- Mini desserts resonate
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- Figure 30: Interest in smaller-sized options from in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
Multipack Interest in In-store Bakeries
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- ISB patrons buy for volume in multipacks
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- Figure 31: Interest in multipacks from in-store bakeries, November 2018
Special Occasion Usage from In-store Bakeries
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- #Special-occasion cakes have room to grow
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- Figure 32: Special occasion usage from in-store bakeries, November 2018
- Growing ISB usage as households shrink
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- Figure 33: Special occasion usage from in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
Seasonal/unique Option Interest from In-store Bakeries
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- Non-dessert baked goods
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- Figure 34: Seasonal/unique option interest from in-store bakeries, November 2018
- Artisan breads appeal to older and younger consumers
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- Figure 35: Seasonal/unique option interest from in-store bakeries, by age, November 2018
- Authentic concepts to appeal to older Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 36: Seasonal/unique option interest from in-store bakeries, by Hispanic origin, by generation, November 2018
Opportunities for In-store Bakeries
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- Leveraging local
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- Figure 37: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, November 2018
- Healthy role for baked goods
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- Figure 38: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, by age, November 2018
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- Figure 39: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
- Local’s role in drawing in consumers to in-store bakeries
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- Figure 40: TURF analysis – Opportunities for in-store bakeries, November 2018
Attitudes toward In-store Bakeries
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- ISBs as a destination
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- Figure 41: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, November 2018
- Potential for kits with parents
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, by presence and age of children, November 2018
Food and Drink Consumer Segmentation
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- Figure 43: Bakery purchase, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
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- Figure 44: Frequency of in-store bakery purchase, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
- Freshness resonates with Alyssa and Karen
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- Figure 45: Reasons for in-store bakery purchase, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
- Leveraging convenience
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- Figure 46: Opportunities for in-store bakeries, by consumer segmentation, November 2018
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations
- Mintel Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales of in-store bakeries, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery desserts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breads and rolls, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery breakfast, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other in-store bakery products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
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TURF Analysis – Methodology
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- Figure 58: TURF analysis – Ingredient claims of interest in baked goods, November 2018
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TURF Analysis – Methodology
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- Figure 59: Table – TURF analysis – Areas of interest from in-store bakeries, November 2018
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