Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Hot cereal gains can’t offset cold struggles
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Category penetration remains high while portions consumed drops
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- Figure 2: Breakfast cereals cold and hot – portions eaten in the last 7 days
- Everyday consumption is lacking
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- Figure 3: Cereal consumption frequency – Any cereal, by myself or any other adults, August 2018
- Consumers unreceptive to healthy initiatives
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- Figure 4: Cereal features interest, August 2018
- The opportunities
- Young adults, parents are the means to occasion expansion
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- Figure 5: Cereal behaviors, by age and parental status, August 2018
- Diverse category offers something for everyone, every mood
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- Figure 6: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Breakfast food associations, August 2018
- Convenience of cereal outweighs any negatives for parents
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- Figure 7: Cereal attitudes, August 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Cereal sales plagued by cold segment
- Hot cereal a bright spot
- Breakfast space continues to grow crowded
- Extending snacking
- Kids essential to success of cereal
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category on a consistent decline
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Cold cereal woes overshadow hot cereal gains
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- Figure 10: Total US market share of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2018
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Perspective
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- Breakfast space continues to get more crowded
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- Figure 12: Breakfast foods consumed, by segmentation, April 2018
- Consumers look for fresh foods on store perimeter
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- Figure 13: Grocery department associations – Healthy, authentic, fresh, tasty, time-saving, and a good value, October 2016
- Consumers cutting back on cereal
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- Figure 14: Breakfast cereals cold and hot – Portions eaten in the last 7 days
- Protein lands high on list of important breakfast features
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- Figure 15: Breakfast attributes, April 2018
Market Factors
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- The importance of snacking
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- Figure 16: Snacking frequency, March 2017
- Sugar concerns for some
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- Figure 17: Reasons for limiting sugar consumption, September 2016
- Households with children forecast to rebound
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- Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2007-17
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Big four dominate the category
- Despite sugar “revolt” sweetened cold cereals continue gains
- Hot cereals leverage all the right things
- Health positioning doesn’t resonate with cold cereals
- Trending overnight oats go commercial
Company and Brand Sales of Hot and Cold Cereal
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- Category is top heavy
- Kellogg sales slide
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- Figure 19: Special K TV advertisement: “Special K Powering You – Stomach Whirlwind”
- Figure 20: Kashi online video: “Awesome Together”
- General Mills maximizes indulgence for gains
- PepsiCo rebound
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- Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Working?
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- Sweet sales for sugary cereals
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- Figure 22: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by select heavily sweetened brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 23: Cinnamon Toast Crunch online video: “Fruit and Cinnamon Snack Mix”
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- Figure 24: Purchase intent of select new heavily sweetened cold cereal brands
- Free-from claims boost inherently healthy reputation
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- Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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- Figure 26: Healthy and natural scores, by hot and cold cereal, January 2017-August 2018
- Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by select brands with health-focused products, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Packaging shifts up the convenience ante for hot cereals
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- Figure 28: Launches of hot cereal, by convenience claims, September 2015-August 2018
- Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by select brands with convenience-focused products, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Struggling?
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- Lightly sweetened, BFY cold cereals
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- Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by select lightly sweetened and BFY brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Value doesn’t boost private labels
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- Figure 32: Purchase intent of select private label hot and cold cereal brands
- Figure 33: Multi-outlet sales of hot and cold cereal, by private label brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Next?
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- Overnight oats
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- Figure 34: Quaker online video: “How to Make Quaker Overnight Oats”
- Premiumization of granola
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- Figure 35: Launches of granola, by small batch, gourmet, and handcrafted claims, September 2015-August 2018
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Widespread consumption, ties to breakfast don’t lead to daily consumption
- Frequency is disproportionate among cereal types
- Retain presence in breakfast, capitalize on snacking
- Cereal is a permissible treat
- Duality of the category requires nuanced approaches
Cereal Consumption and Frequency
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- Cereal remains a pantry staple
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- Figure 36: Cereal consumption, August 2018
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- Figure 37: Cereal household consumption, August 2018
- iGens especially engaged with cold cereal
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- Figure 38: Cereal consumption, August 2018
- Parents, larger households have broader repertoires of cereals
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- Figure 39: Cereal consumption, by parental status, August 2018
- Figure 40: Cereal consumption, by household size, August 2018
- Despite strong breakfast consumption, few consumers eat cereal daily
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- Figure 41: Cereal consumption frequency – At least once a week, by myself or any other adults, August 2018
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- Figure 42: Cereal consumption frequency – At least once a week, by children aged 17 or younger, August 2018
Changes in Cereal Consumption
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- Cereal consumption frequency remains mostly unchanged
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- Figure 43: Cereal consumption changes, August 2018
- Breakfast still a catalyst for growth
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- Figure 44: Reasons for increased consumption, August 2018
- Parents increasing cereal engagement though snacking, dessert, and nostalgia
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- Figure 45: Reasons for increased consumption, by parental status, August 2018
- Category attrition triggered by BFY options
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- Figure 46: Reasons for decreased consumption, August 2018
Cereal Behaviors
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- Breakfast drives consumption
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- Figure 47: Cereal behaviors, August 2018
- Younger adults, parents use cereals for broader range of occasions
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- Figure 48: Cereal behaviors, by age and parental status, August 2018
- More than half of Hispanic consumers snack on cereal
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- Figure 49: Cereal behaviors – Eat cereal as a snack, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2018
Cereal Attitudes
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- Consumers emphasize familiarity, taste in cereal choices
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- Figure 50: Cereal attitudes, August 2018
- Experimental younger consumers are key targets for trial
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- Figure 51: Cereal attitudes – Nostalgia and try new brands and flavors, by age, August 2018
- Convenience outweighs health concerns for most parents
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- Figure 52: Cereal attitudes, August 2018
Breakfast Food Associations
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- Hot and cold cereal contrasts brings diverse strengths to category
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- Figure 53: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Breakfast food associations, August 2018
- Figure 54: Breakfast food associations, August 2018
- Satiety, health of hot cereal stands out to older consumers
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- Figure 55: Breakfast food associations – Hot cereal, nutritious, filling, and convenient, by age, August 2018
- Moms value taste and convenience of cold cereal
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- Figure 56: Breakfast food associations – Hot cereal, nutritious and filling, by age, August 2018
Cereal Features Interest
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- Protein, low-sugar can encourage trial
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- Figure 57: Cereal features interest, August 2018
- Mix of variety, healthy ingredients equal the strongest reach
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- Figure 58: TURF analysis – Cereal features interest, August 2018
- Even those consumers eating cereal as a treat seek a balance
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- Figure 59: Cereal attitudes – Healthy cereals and cereals as a treat, by cereal features interest, August 2018
- Mix of soft claims appeal more to younger consumers
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- Figure 60: Cereal features interest, August 2018
- Parents interested in broader variety of features
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- Figure 61: Cereal features interest, August 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- TURF Methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of cold cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of hot cereal, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2013-18
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- Figure 70: Total US retail sales of hot and cold cereal, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 71: US supermarket sales of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2013-18
- Figure 72: US drugstore sales of hot and cold cereal, at current prices, 2013-18
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- Figure 73: US sales of hot and cold cereal through other retail channels, at current prices, 2013-18
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of cold cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of hot cereal, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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