Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
Executive Summary
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- Britain today
- GDP forecasts remain positive
- Inflation continues to outpace wage growth
- Net migration continues to fall
- Consumer confidence rises and falls on Brexit updates
- Minimum pension contribution to rise
- Concerns grow for the cost of living
- The consumer
- Savvy shopping habits keep spending levels stable
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- Figure 1: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, January 2018
- Shoppers become more focused on deal-hunting
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- Figure 2: Reasons why people spent less across all categories (netted across all sectors), February 2017 and January 2018
- Brits favour big government when it comes to social issues
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- Figure 3: People’s attitude towards who should be taking the lead role in tackling selected social issues, January 2018
- Is British identity in crisis?
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- Figure 4: Attitudes towards Britain’s reputation abroad, January 2018
- The best of British
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- Figure 5: Attitudes towards British society, January 2018
- Brits take pride in the struggling NHS
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- Figure 6: Aspects of Britain people are most proud of, January 2018
- What we think
Britain Today – What You Need to Know
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- GDP forecasts remain positive
- Housing market central to consumer confidence
- UK unemployment levels remain low …
- … but inflation continues to outpace wage growth
- Ageing population continues to drive growth
- Net migration continues to fall
- Consumer confidence rises and falls on Brexit updates
- Minimum pension contribution to rise
- Concerns grow for the cost of living
The Economy
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- GDP forecasts remain positive
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- Figure 7: Quarterly % change in UK GDP, Q1 2012-Q4 2017
- London housing market cools
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- Figure 8: Average house prices, UK, January 2012- December 2017
- UK unemployment levels remain low
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- Figure 9: Employment and unemployment, by gender, 2012-22
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- Figure 10: UK Labour productivity measures – Output per hour (seasonally adjusted), Q1 2008-Q4 2017
- Income squeeze lingers
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- Figure 11: Headline CPI inflation (12-month percentage change), vs average weekly earnings, January 2012-January 2018
The People
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- Ageing population continues to drive growth
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- Figure 12: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2012-22
- Birth rate plateaus
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- Figure 13: Trends in the number of live births, England and Wales, 2000-16
- Number of households grows
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- Figure 14: UK households, by size, 2012-22
- Net migration continues to fall
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- Figure 15: Net migration to the UK, March 2012-September 2017
Consumer Finances
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- Consumer confidence rises and falls on Brexit updates
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- Figure 16: The financial wellbeing index, December 2012-December 2017
- Consumer expectations for the coming year
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- Figure 17: Consumer financial wellbeing expectations for the coming year, June 2016 to December 2017
- Minimum pension contribution to rise
- What do the changes mean?
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- Figure 18: Changes in minimum pension contributions, January 2018
- Will people opt out of auto-enrolment?
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- Figure 19: Planned changes to enrolment in workplace pension based on contribution changes, January 2018
- Will it impact people’s spending habits?
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- Figure 20: People’s expectations in their spending habits following pension contribution increase, January 2018
Consumers’ Response to the EU Referendum
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- Concerns grow for the cost of living …
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- Figure 21: Expected impact of UK vote to leave the EU on wider economy and personal finances, December 2017
- … but Brits remain unconvinced by more dramatic forecasts
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- Figure 22: Guardian newspaper headline, November 2017
- Expectations prove less dramatic for other aspects of personal finance
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- Figure 23: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum on personal financial factors, December 2016-December 2017
- The potential positives for first-time buyers
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- Figure 24: Balance of consumer opinion on the impact of the EU referendum on macroeconomic factors, December 2016-December 2017
- Opinions vary widely by age
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- Figure 25: Balance of consumer opinion in regard to the expected impact of the UK vote to leave the EU on wider economy and personal finances, by age, December 2017
Consumer Expenditure – What You Need to Know
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- Consumer spending up 3%
- Outlook for the next five years
- Food shoppers tighten their belts
- Alcohol moderation trends could help sales of non-alcoholic drinks
- Premiumisation trend continues to buoy sales of alcohol …
- … and BPC products
- Fashion goes online
- Limited growth projected for technology and communications market
- ‘Experience economy’ drives leisure and entertainment market
Consumer Expenditure Overview
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- Consumer spending up 3%
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- Figure 26: Consumer expenditure, by sector (£ billion), 2017
- Outlook for the next five years
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- Figure 27: Best- and worst-case forecast total value sales, 2012-22
- Top performers in next five years
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- Figure 28: Categories set to grow at a faster rate than total consumer spending projections over the next five years, at current prices, by % growth, 2017-22
- Slower growth sectors
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- Figure 29: Consumer sectors set to grow at a below-average rate, at current prices, by % growth, 2017-22
In-home Food
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 30: UK in-home food market value, 2012-17
- Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the in-home food market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Meat-free foods
- Bread with bits
- Chilled fish/shellfish
- Crisps
- Losers
- Cooking and pasta sauces
- Sugar and gum confectionery
- Half and half bread
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 32: Changes in spending habits on in-home food in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Attitudes towards healthy eating
- Meat-free foods
- Bread
- Sugar and gum confectionery
- Ready meals and ready-to-cook foods
Foodservice
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 33: UK foodservice market value, 2012-17
- Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the foodservice market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Pub catering
- Grab-and-go
- Takeaways and home deliveries
- Losers
- High street operators
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 35: Changes in spending habits on eating out in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Menu trends
- Eating out: the decision-making process
- Eating out review
Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 36: UK non-alcoholic drinks market value, 2012-17
- Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the non-alcoholic drinks market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Bottled water
- Smoothies
- Adult carbonated soft drinks
- Losers
- Tea
- Sports drinks
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 38: Changes in spending habits on non-alcoholic drinks in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Bottled water
- Fruit juice, juice drinks and smoothies
- Carbonated soft drinks
- Tea and other hot drinks
- Coffee
- Sports and energy drinks
Alcoholic Drinks (Retail Market)
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 39: UK alcoholic drinks retail market value, 2012-17
- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the alcoholic drinks retail market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Ale/bitter
- Cider
- Gin
- RTDs
- Losers
- White rum
- Champagne
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 41: Changes in spending habits on alcoholic drinks in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Beer
- Wine
- Cider
- Spirits
- Alcoholic drinks – General
Beauty and Personal Care
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 42: UK beauty and personal care market value, 2012-17
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- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the beauty and personal care market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Women’s facial skincare
- Colour cosmetics
- Losers
- Men’s facial skincare
- Oral care
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 44: Changes in spending habits on beauty products and toiletries in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Colour cosmetics
- Women’s facial skincare
- Men’s facial skincare
- Oral care
OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 45: UK OTC and pharmaceuticals market value, 2012-17
- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the OTC and pharmaceuticals market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Gastrointestinal remedies
- Cough, cold and flu
- Sexual health
- Losers
- Children’s OTC
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 47: Changes in spending habits on healthcare products in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Analgesics
- Children’s OTC
- Feminine hygiene and sanitary protection products
- Vitamins and supplements
Fashion
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 48: UK clothing and accessories market value, 2012-17
- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the clothing and accessories market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Online fashion
- Handbags
- Childrenswear
- Losers
- Womenswear
- Costume jewellery
- Department stores
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 50: Changes in spending habits on clothing and accessories in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Fashion online
- Fashion accessories
- Clothing retailing
- Sports fashion
Household Care
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 51: UK household care market value, 2012-17
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the household care market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Air care
- Stain removers and whiteners
- Losers
- Dishwashing products
- Laundry detergents
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 53: Changes in spending habits on household care products in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Air care
- Cleaning for the family
- Fabric care
- Household cleaning equipment
Technology and Communications
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 54: UK technology and communications market value, 2012-17
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- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the technology and communications market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Bundled communications services
- The connected home
- Losers
- Consoles and games
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 56: Changes in spending habits on technology and communications in 2017. January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Wearable technology
- Mobile phones
- Mobile device apps
- Magazines
- Televisions
- Virtual reality
Leisure and Entertainment
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 57: UK leisure and entertainment market value, 2012-17
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- Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the leisure and entertainment market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Gambling
- Tenpin bowling
- Music concerts and festivals
- Health and fitness clubs
- Losers
- Nightclubs
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 59: Changes in spending habits on leisure and entertainment in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Gambling
- Tenpin bowling
- Music concerts and festivals
- Nightclubs
Home and Garden
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 60: UK home and garden market value, 2012-17
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- Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the home and garden market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Home accessories
- Garden products
- Major domestic appliances
- Losers
- Kitchens and kitchen furniture
- Bathrooms and bathroom accessories
- Furniture
- Small kitchen appliances
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 62: Changes in spending habits on home and garden products in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Furniture
- Small kitchen appliances
- Gardens
- Tableware and cookware
Transport
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 63: UK transport market value, 2012-17
- Figure 64: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the transport market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- Used cars
- Motorcycles
- Low-cost airlines
- Losers
- New cars
- Diesel cars
- Key consumer findings
- Cars
- Motorcycles
- Airlines
Holidays
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 65: UK holidays market value, 2012-17
- Figure 66: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the holidays market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- North Africa
- Beach holidays
- Holidays to the US and Dollar-pegged nations
- Losers
- Overseas short breaks
- Changing consumer habits
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- Figure 67: Changes in spending habits on holidays in 2017, January 2018
- Key consumer findings
- Domestic tourism
- Holiday finance
- Airlines
Personal Finance
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 68: UK personal finance market value, 2012-17
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- Figure 69: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the personal finance market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Mintel predictions
- Winners
- New entrants
- Pensions
- Losers
- Cash-based savings
- Consumer credit
- Changing consumer habits
- Key consumer findings
- Consumer attitudes towards debt
- Consumers and retail banking
- Consumers, saving and investing
Housing
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 70: UK housing market value, 2012-17
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- Figure 71: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the housing market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Changing consumer habits
- Key consumer findings
- Mortgages
- Consumer attitudes towards property ownership
- Mortgage advice
Newsagents’ Goods
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 72: UK newsagents’ goods market value, 2012-17
- Figure 73: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the newsagents’ goods market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Key consumer findings
- Greetings cards
- Cigarettes
Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- What we think
- Market – Past, present, future
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- Figure 74: UK miscellaneous expenditure market value, 2012-17
- Figure 75: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of the miscellaneous expenditure market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Winners
- Private healthcare
- Optical goods
- Toys and games
- Pet food
- Losers
- Disposable nappies and wipes
- Key consumer findings
- Private healthcare services
- Disposable nappies and wipes
- Pet food
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Savvy shopping habits keep spending levels stable …
- … but price promotions become less readily available in supermarkets
- Inflation drives consumer spending on food
- Brits favour big government when it comes to social issues
- Millennials take responsibility for change
- Addressing gender equality
- A revamp for Brand Britain
- Celebrating diversity in the UK
- A world of opportunity outside of London
- The best of British
- Brits take pride in the struggling NHS
Changes in Spending Habits
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- Savvy shopping habits keep spending levels stable
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- Figure 76: Changes in spending habits in the last 12 months, January 2018
- Inflation drives consumer spending on food
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- Figure 77: Agreement with the statement “I buy premium own-label products”, March 2016-December 2017
- Consumers lessen spending on eating out
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- Figure 78: Difference between proportions of people spending more and less, January 2018 and February 2017
- Young men invest in their appearance
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- Figure 79: Proportion of adults spending more on beauty product s and toiletries, by gender and age, January 2018 and February 2017
- Figure 80: Proportion of adults spending more on clothing and accessories (including footwear), by gender and age, January 2018 and February 2017
Reasons Why People Spent Less
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- Shoppers become more focused on deal hunting …
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- Figure 81: Reasons why people spent less across all categories (netted across all sectors), February 2017 and January 2018
- … but price promotions become less readily available in supermarkets
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- Figure 82: Reasons why people spent less in 2017, by category, January 2018
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- Figure 83: Changes in the proportion of shoppers who agree they spent less by switching product/brand/store, February 2017 and January 2018
Tackling Social Issues: Whose Responsibility Is It?
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- Brits favour big government when it comes to social issues
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- Figure 84: People’s attitude towards who should be taking the lead role in tackling selected social issues January 2018
- Putting the consumer before profits
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- Figure 85: Heineken’s ‘Moderate drinkers wanted’ campaign, January 2016
- Addressing gender equality in the workplace …
- … and in advertising
- Millennials take responsibility for change
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- Figure 86: People’s attitude towards who should be taking the lead role in tackling selected social issues, NETs, by generation, January 2018
Attitudes towards Britain’s Place on the World Stage
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- Is British identity in crisis...?
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- Figure 87: Attitudes towards Britain’s reputation abroad, January 2018
- … and what does this mean for brand Britain?
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- Figure 88: Burberry Rainbow canvas, February 2018
- Celebrating diversity in the UK
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- Figure 89: Debenhams’ “#YouShall Find Your Fairytale Christmas” campaign, December 2017
- Brits doubt UK’s environmental credentials
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- Figure 90: Levels of agreement with statements on UK’s ethical and environmental reputation, by age, January 2018
Forgotten Britain
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- A world of opportunity outside of London
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- Figure 91: Attitudes towards British society, January 2018
- The best of British
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- Figure 92: Jigsaw’s “Heart Immigration” campaign, October 2017
- Rousing community spirit
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- Figure 93: Agreement with the statement “Britain has lost its sense of community”, by age, January 2018
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- Figure 94: Waitrose’s “Community Matters” initiative, March 2018
Proud to be British
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- Brits take pride in the struggling NHS
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- Figure 95: Aspects of Britain people are most proud of, January 2018
- A boost for Britain’s physical fitness
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- Figure 96: Sky Sports’ “Living for Sport” initiative, August 2017
- Young adults proud of British culture
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- Figure 97: Aspects of Britain people are most proud of, by age, January 2018
- A Royal boost for the economy
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- Figure 98: Prince Harry and Meghan Markle announce their engagement, January 2018
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Forecast methodology
Appendix – In-home Food
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- Figure 99: UK retail value sales of in-home food, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Foodservice
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- Figure 100: UK retail value sales of foodservice, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Non-alcoholic Drinks
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- Figure 101: UK retail value sales of non-alcoholic drinks, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Alcoholic Drinks (Retail Market)
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- Figure 102: UK retail value sales of alcoholic drinks (for in-home consumption), at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Beauty and Personal Care
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- Figure 103: UK retail value sales of beauty and personal care products, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – OTC and Pharmaceuticals
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- Figure 104: UK retail value sales of OTC and pharmaceuticals, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Fashion
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- Figure 105: UK retail value sales of clothing and accessories, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Household Care
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- Figure 106: UK retail value sales of household care products, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Technology and Communication
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- Figure 107: UK retail value sales of technology and communication products, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Leisure and Entertainment
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- Figure 108: UK holidays market, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Home and Garden
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- Figure 109: UK retail value sales for home and garden products, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Transport
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- Figure 110: UK transport market, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Holidays
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- Figure 111: UK holidays market, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Personal Finance
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- Figure 112: UK retail value sales of personal finance products, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Housing
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- Figure 113: UK housing market, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Newsagents’ Goods
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- Figure 114: UK retail value sales of newsagents’ goods, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Miscellaneous Expenditure
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- Figure 115: Miscellaneous expenditure, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
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