Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
- Still wines
- Sparkling wines
- Fortified wines
- Excluded from the Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- The wine market is expected to return to growth in 2017
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- Figure 1: Forecast of total UK value sales of wine, 2012-22
- Still wine volumes continue to slide
- Off-trade outperforms the struggling on-trade
- Wine prices continue to rise
- Companies and brands
- Accolade Wines leads a highly fragmented market
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of the top 10 wine brands, 2016/17*
- Leading Prosecco brands enjoy dynamic growth
- Retailers focus on top-tier NPD
- Lidl continues to lead the way for wine adspend
- The consumer
- Almost two thirds of adults buy wine
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- Figure 3: Purchase of types of wines, August 2017
- Four in five wine buyers purchase from supermarkets
- 71% of still wine buyers will not exceed £10 per bottle for still wines
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- Figure 4: How much buyers are willing to spend on a bottle of still wine, sparkling wine and Champagne for drinking at home, August 2017
- Almost half of wine buyers are interested in English wines
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- Figure 5: Interest in different types of wines, August 2017
- Wine buyers struggle to navigate choice
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards wines, August 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- A role for pricing transparency to convince consumers to trade up to higher priced wines
- The facts
- The implications
- Embracing packaging formats other than bottle
- The facts
- The implications
- Exploring new regions
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- The wine market is expected to return to growth in 2017
- Growth of 12% expected by 2022
- Still wine volumes continue to slide
- Off-trade outperforms the struggling on-trade
- Wine prices continue to rise
Market Size and Forecast
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- Wine volumes dipped in 2016
- Still wine dominates, sparkling enjoys strongest growth
- Return to growth expected in 2017 with uncertainty over price trends ahead
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- Figure 7: Total value and volume sales of wine, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
- Figure 8: Forecast of total UK value sales of wine, 2012-22
- Figure 9: Forecast of total UK volume sales of wine, 2012-22
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Still wine values and volumes expected to return to growth in 2017
- Discounters help boost sales, rosé continues to fall
- On-trade still wine sales struggle
- Flat volumes predicted
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- Figure 10: Total value and volume sales of still wines, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
- Figure 11: Forecast of UK value sales of still wines, 2012-22
- Prosecco drives sparkling wine growth
- Good value image has benefited sparkling and should continue to support growth
- Finite Prosecco supply points to need to look further
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- Figure 12: Total value and volume sales of sparkling wines, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
- Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of sparkling wines, 2012-22
- Champagne sales hit by the Prosecco boom
- Rising confidence and incomes boost Champagne in 2014 and 2015
- Deep cut promotions dampen value sales
- Subdued outlook
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- Figure 14: Total value and volume sales of Champagne, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
- Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of Champagne, 2012-22
- Fortified wine sales continue to slide
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- Figure 16: Total value and volume sales of fortified wines, at current and constant prices, 2012-22
- Figure 17: Forecast of UK value sales of fortified wines, 2012-22
Channels to Market
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- Off-trade sales outperform the struggling on-trade
- Online sales on the rise to boost off-trade numbers
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- Figure 18: UK value and volume sales of wine in the on- and off-trade, by type, 2015-17
- Figure 19: Estimated share of total UK value and volume sales of wine, by type and channel, 2017
Market Drivers
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- Wine duty continues to rise
- Unseasonal weather affects Champagne and English wines
- Low-alcohol variants continue to attract lower tax
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- Figure 20: UK excise duty rates for wines, 2007-17
- Weakening of the pound has caused wine prices to increase
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- Figure 21: Annual exchange rates for Sterling, 2012-17
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- Figure 22: Trends in consumer price indices for all items, wine, beer and spirits 2006-17
- Weakening consumer confidence poses a threat to wine
- Many people are cutting back on alcohol
- The on-trade remains under pressure
- Demographic changes impact the market
- Wines remain popular among older drinkers
- Wine needs to appeal to growing C1C2s
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Accolade Wines leads a highly fragmented market
- Leading Prosecco brands enjoy dynamic growth
- Still wine innovation revolves around established trends
- Retailers focus on top-tier NPD
- Lidl continues to lead the way for wine adspend
Market Share
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- Accolade Wines leads a highly fragmented market
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- Figure 23: Estimated leading manufacturers’ shares of total wine sales in the UK off-trade, 2016/17*
- Hardys and Blossom Hill continue to see sales slide in 2016/17
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- Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading still wine brands, 2014/15-2016/17
- McGuigan and Barefoot continue to rise up the ranks
- Gallo recovers, Concha y Toro stagnates
- Several other brands also grow as wine aisles are streamlined
- Leading Prosecco brands enjoy dynamic growth
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- Figure 25: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading sparkling wine brands, 2014/15-2016/17
- Leading brands manage flat sales in falling Champagne market
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- Figure 26: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading Champagne brands, 2014/15-2016/17
- The Buckfast revival continues apace
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- Figure 27: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading fortified wine brands, 2014/15-2016/17
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Still wine
- Oxford Landing launches fist new variants in nearly 30 years
- Blossom Hill sparkling adopts Spritz label
- Sparkling wine and Champagne
- Freixenet looks to rosés
- Concha y Toro and Gallo look to millennials
- Blossom Hill and Veuve Clicquot target gifting
- Own-label NPD looks to English and hybrid sparkling
- Selected retailer initiatives
- Majestic launches next-day delivery
- Asda revamps range, Aldi looks to premium and new wines
- Waitrose looks to premiumise
- Morrisons and Aldi hope to tap into the popularity of craft
- Lower-alcohol wine launches on the up
- Lidl and Tesco explore new wine regions
- The Co-op ramps up its wine innovation with pouches, Fairtrade and Member Voice
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertisers increase spend slightly in 2016
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- Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on wine, 2013-2017*
- Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on wine, by quarterly share of annual total, 2013-16
- Lidl continues to lead the way for wine adspend
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- Figure 30: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on still, sparkling and fortified wine, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by total spend over period), 2013-17*
- Selected campaigns and activity in still wine
- McGuigan and Trivento look to food tie-ups
- Brancott Estate highlights innovative winemaking
- Isla Negra and TWE link with leisure activities
- Selected campaigns and activity in sparkling wine and Champagne
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Almost two thirds of adults buy wine
- Four in five wine buyers have purchased from supermarkets
- 15% of still wine buyers will exceed £10 per bottle
- Almost half of wine buyers are interested in English wines
- Wine buyers struggle to navigate choice
Purchase of Wines
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- Almost two thirds of adults buy wine
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- Figure 31: Profile of still and sparkling wine buyers, by age, August 2017
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- Figure 32: Repertoire of types of wines bought, August 2017
- Still white and red remain the most popular types of wine
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- Figure 33: Purchase of wine by type, August 2017
- Rosé struggles to keep pace
- Wine boxes/pouches remains rare
- A quarter of adults now buy Prosecco
- Prosecco’s success takes its toll on other sparkling wines
Locations for Buying Wine
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- Four in five buyers purchase wine from supermarkets
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- Figure 34: Locations for buying wines, August 2017
- Discount supermarkets steal a march …
- … despite under-indexing on wine
- Convenience stores are an important off-trade channel
- The specialists manage only a niche following
- Stagnating sales in the on-trade
- Wine lags in pubs/bars
- Online provides opportunities for the wine industry
Spending on Wines
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- Few still wine buyers expect to spend under £5 per bottle
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- Figure 35: How much buyers are willing to spend on a bottle of still wine for drinking at home, August 2017 vs July 2015
- Nearly two in three still wine buyers would spend £5 to £10
- Communication is key to encouraging higher spend
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- Figure 36: Estimated proportion of costs of the price of a bottle of wine in the UK at selected prices, September 2017
- Sparkling wine at risk of commoditisation
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- Figure 37: How much buyers are willing to spend on a bottle of sparkling wine for drinking at home, August 2017 vs July 2015
- Over-45s and women least willing to spend over £10
- Under-35s are willing to spend most in sparkling wine
- 43% of Champagne buyers are prepared to exceed £20 per bottle
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- Figure 38: How much buyers are willing to spend on a bottle of Champagne for drinking at home, August 2017 vs July 2015
- Willingness to spend £20+ on Champagne falls
Interest in Different Types of Wines
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- Almost half of wine buyers are interested in English wines
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- Figure 39: Interest in different types of wines, August 2017
- New regions and spirit barrel ageing interest more than one in five
- Interest in wines from new regions is welcome news for the trade
- Spirit barrel ageing can tap into interest in unique flavours
- Wine on tap interests core pub/bar patrons
- Wine pouches appeal to one in four 25-34s, falling to one in five for cans
- Sparkling wine cocktails’ appeal to under-35s should support margins
- Interest in non-grape wines is much higher than uptake
- Lower-alcohol sparkling appeals to the young
Attitudes towards Wines
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- Wine buyers look for help navigating choice
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards buying wines in supermarkets, August 2017
- Grape trumps region for one in three
- Over half of wine buyers want clearer guidance on calorie content
- Minority of wine buyers are more interested in learning about other drinks
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards calories and packaging of wines, August 2017
- Opportunities for English wines …
- … and premium wines
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- Figure 42: Attitudes towards premium and English wines, August 2017
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
- Best and worst-case forecast data
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- Figure 43: Total UK value sales of wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 44: Total UK volume sales of wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Still wines
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- Figure 45: Total UK value sales of still wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 46: Total UK volume sales of still wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 47: Forecast of UK volume sales of still wines, 2012-22
- Sparkling wines
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- Figure 48: Total UK value sales of sparkling wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 49: Total UK volume sales of sparkling wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 50: Forecast of UK volume sales of sparkling wines, 2012-22
- Champagne
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- Figure 51: Total UK value sales of Champagne, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 52: Total UK volume sales of Champagne, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 53: Forecast of UK volume sales of Champagne, 2012-22
- Fortified wines
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- Figure 54: Total UK value sales of fortified wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 55: Total UK volume sales of fortified wines, best- and worst-case forecast, 2017-22
- Figure 56: Forecast of UK volume sales of fortified wines, 2012-22
Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 57: UK retail volume sales of the leading sparkling wine, Champagne and fortified wine brands, 2014/15-2016/17
- Figure 58: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading still wine manufacturers, 2014/15-2016/17
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- Figure 59: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading sparkling wine manufacturers, 2014/15-2016/17
- Figure 60: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading Champagne manufacturers, 2014/15-2016/17
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- Figure 61: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading fortified wine manufacturers, 2014/15-2016/17
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