Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- New vehicles sales expected to drop after record sales in 2016
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- Figure 1: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast of new passenger cars and new light trucks, 2012-22
- Purchase intent trending downwards since July 2016
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- Figure 2: Purchase intent, July 2016-June 2017
- Influx of off-lease vehicles will pressure new car sales
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- Figure 3: Method of acquisition, by most recently acquired vehicle, 2013-17
- The opportunities
- Major life events correlate with a high purchase intent
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- Figure 4: Purchase intent, by major life events, June 2017
- Reliability and condition most appealing attribute of a new car purchase
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- Figure 5: New car attributes, June 2017
- Younger shoppers can be won over with low monthly payments
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- Figure 6: Attitudes toward cars, by age, June 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- New car sales expected to drop for 2017
- Crossover sales nearly matches all passenger car sales
- NAFTA Renegotiations could dramatically change sales environment
Market Size and Forecast
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- Peak auto sales reached in 2016
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- Figure 7: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast of new passenger cars and new light trucks, 2012-22
- Figure 8: Total US unit sales and forecast of new passenger cars and new light trucks, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Light truck sales outperform passenger cars
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- Figure 9: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast of new passenger cars and new light trucks, by segment, 2012-22
- Figure 10: Total US unit sales of new cars, by segment, 2015 and 2017
- Crossovers accounted for more than half of entire light truck segment
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- Figure 11: Light truck sales, by segment, 2016
- Midsize cars represent the bulk of passenger car sales
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- Figure 12: Passenger car sales, by segment, 2016
Market Perspective
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- Certified pre-owned inventory will pressure new car sales
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- Figure 13: Method of acquisition, by most recently acquired vehicle, 2013-17
Market Factors
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- Purchase intent trending downwards
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- Figure 14: Purchase intent, July 2016-June 2017
- Unemployment rate remains low, a positive indicator for new car sales
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- Figure 15: Unemployment and underemployment, January 2007-June 2017
- Consumer confidence remains high
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- Figure 16: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-June 2017
- Renegotiated NAFTA terms will impact auto industry
- Low gas prices fuel SUV and crossover boom
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- Figure 17: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-June 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Ford F-Series remains staple of US auto landscape
- Nissan Rogue overtakes top brands to take top non-pickup slot
- Ford Fusion falters fantastically
- Volvo announces commitment to an all-electric/hybrid lineup by 2019
- Toyota’s cloud platform provides an enhanced driving and ownership experience
Sales by Auto Brands
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- Majority of brands see declines through July 2017
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- Figure 18: Unit sales and market share, by brand, 2016-17 through July sales
What’s Working?
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- Ford F-Series Top Selling Vehicle in US
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- Figure 19: Ford F-150 acquisition email, August 2017
- Nissan Rogue top selling non-pickup truck in US
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- Figure 20: 2017 Nissan Rogue acquisition email, August 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Sub-zero sales climate for subcompact cars
- Ford Fusion flops with falling sales
What’s Next?
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- Volvo commits to an all-electric lineup by 2019
- Big data to play a role in enhancing driving experience
- Ford bringing back the Bronco and the Ranger
- Mazda unveils plans for compression ignition gasoline engine
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Child birth and buying property correlate with high purchase intent
- Reliability is the most appealing trait of a new car purchase
- Younger shoppers more concerned about lower monthly payments
- Extra eyes for the driver are attractive features
Purchase Intent
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- Half of consumers planning on buying a car within three years
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- Figure 21: Purchase intent, June 2017
- Millennials continue to drive purchases
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- Figure 22: Purchase intent, by generation, June 2017
- Life events prompt car purchases
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- Figure 23: Purchase intent, by major life events, June 2017
Vehicle Types Considered
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- Sedans and SUVs most considered vehicle types
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- Figure 24: Vehicle types considered, June 2017
- Life events impact vehicle types considered
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- Figure 25: Vehicle types considered, by major life events, June 2016
- Pickups rule rural routes
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- Figure 26: Vehicle type, by area, June 2017
Purchase Type
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- Majority of shoppers aspire for a new vehicle purchase
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- Figure 27: Purchase type, June 2017
- Younger women exhibit fiscal prudence on their next car
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- Figure 28: Purchase type, by gender and age, June 2017
- Blacks considering used while Whites and Hispanics opt for new
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- Figure 29: Purchase type, by race and Hispanic origin, June 2017
Vehicle Use
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- Running errands tops vehicle use
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- Figure 30: Vehicle use, June 2017
- Men look to drive for ride sharing services
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- Figure 31: Vehicle use, by gender and age, June 2017
- Driving for pleasure increases with age
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- Figure 32: Vehicle use, by age, June 2017
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- Figure 33: 2018 Acura TLX acquisition email, August 2017
- Big data could make running errands more efficient
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- Figure 34: Vehicle use, by gender and age, June 2017
New Car Attributes
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- Reliability of a new vehicle most appealing attribute
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- Figure 35: New car attributes, June 2017
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- Figure 36: Hyundai’s “better than ever” sales event, direct mail, June 2017
- Problem-free new cars most appealing to women
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- Figure 37: New car attributes, by gender, June 2017
- Midwesterners like being the first owner
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- Figure 38: New car attributes, by region, June 2017
Auto Features
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- I can see clearly now, my blind-spot’s gone
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- Figure 39: Auto features, June 2017
- TURF analysis of auto features
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- Figure 40: TURF analysis – Technology and safety features, June 2017
Attitudes toward Cars
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- Dealership reputation matters
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- Figure 41: Attitudes toward cars, June 2017
- Technology breeds security issues among Millennials
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- Figure 42: Attitudes toward cars, by generation, June 2017
- Younger men have the need for speed and low monthly payments
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- Figure 43: Attitudes toward cars, by gender and age, June 2017
- Figure 44: Chevrolet Camaro online advertisement, January 2017
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- Figure 45: Chevrolet Camaro online mobile advertisement, January 2017
Cluster Analysis
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- Figure 46: New cars segments, June 2017
- Apathetic Shoppers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 47: Profile of apathetic shoppers, June 2017
- Bells and Whistles
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 48: Profile of bells and whistles, June 2017
- Life Event Drivers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 49: Profile of life event drivers, June 2017
- Practical Shoppers
- Characteristics
- Opportunities
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- Figure 50: Profile of practical shoppers, June 2017
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 51: New vehicle sales, by new passenger cars and new light trucks, 2011-16
- Figure 52: Total US new passenger car unit sales, 2012-22
- Figure 53: Total US new light trucks unit sales, 2012-22
- Figure 54: New vehicle sales market share, by segment, 2016 (total) – July 2017
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 55: Total US Unit sales, by model, through July 2017
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