Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Debt fell over the past year, regaining momentum following growth last year
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- Figure 1: Aggregated value of outstanding debt in loan books, £ billion, 2012-16
- New loan volume falls, but market retains resilience
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- Figure 2: New loans volume, £ billion, 2012-16
- Market segmentation
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- Figure 3: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million, 2016 & Y-T-D 2017
- Market factors
- Investment in UK commercial property
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- Figure 4: Investment in UK commercial property, £ billion, 2012-16
- Regional disparities
- Commercial lending rates
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- Figure 5: Average Interest rate for UK MFI new advances to PNFCs, interest rate %, at April 2013-17
- Business confidence levels regain growth for the first time since Brexit but remain subdued
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- Figure 6: UK Business Confidence Index, per half year, 2007-17
- Availability and demand for credit
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- Figure 7: Availability of Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
- Figure 8: Demand for Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
- By lender category
- UK banks and building societies continue to tighten their dominance in lending
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- Figure 9: New loans volume, allocation by lender category, 2012-16
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- Figure 10: Outstanding debt in loan books, allocation by lender category, year-end 2015 & 2016
- Commercial borrowing
- Market forecasts
- Commercial property lending may have peaked
- Ongoing structural changes to the market by lender category
- Which sectors will grow and which will decline?
- Foreign investors well positioned to benefit from next few years of uncertainty
- What we think
Key Issues
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- How has the shape of investment changed over the past decade?
- How has Brexit manifested in the marketplace over the past year?
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Methodology
- Abbreviations
- Market positioning
- The supplier
- The customer
UK Economy
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- Figure 11: Forecast GDP development, % change, 2017-21
- Figure 12: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-16
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- Figure 13: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- House prices
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- Figure 14: UK House price changes, 12 month % change, 2006-16
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
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- Figure 15: UK manufacturing, 2014-16
- Business investment
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- Figure 16: UK GFCF, £ million, 2003-16
- Imports
- Exports
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Market Factors
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- Key points
- Investment in UK commercial property
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- Figure 17: Investment in UK commercial property, £ billion, 2012-16
- Regional disparities
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- Figure 18: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million and number of transactions, 2015, 2016 & 2017 Y-T-D
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- Figure 19: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million, 2015, 2016 & 2017 Y-T-D
- Commercial lending rates
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- Figure 20: Average interest rate for UK MFI new advances to PNFCs, interest rate %, at April 2013-17
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- Figure 21: Average interest rate for UK MFI new advances to PNFCs, interest rate %, at April 2013-17
- Business confidence levels regain growth for the first time since Brexit but remain subdued
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- Figure 22: UK Business Confidence Index, per half year, 2007-17
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- Figure 23: UK Business Confidence Index, per half year, 2007-17
- Availability and demand for credit
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- Figure 24: Availability of Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
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- Figure 25: Availability of Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
- Figure 26: Demand for Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
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- Figure 27: Demand for Corporate Credit to PNFCs in the last three months, net % balance, Q2 2011-Q2 2017
Market Size
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- Key points
- Debt fell over the past year, regaining momentum following growth last year
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- Figure 28: Aggregated value of outstanding debt in loan books, £ billion, 2012-16
- New loan volume falls, but market retains resilience
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- Figure 29: New loans volume, £ billion, 2012-16
Market Segmentation
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- Key points
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- Figure 30: Value of commercial property transactions, £ million, 2016 & Y-T-D 2017
- Offices
- Retail
- Industrial
- Leisure
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- Figure 31: UK Leisure industry market value, £ million, 2012-16
Commercial Mortgages by Lender Category
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- Key points
- UK banks and building societies continue to tighten their dominance in lending
- New loan volumes by lender category
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- Figure 32: New loans volume, allocation by lender category, 2012-16
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- Figure 33: New loans volume, allocation by lender category, 2016
- Outstanding debt in loan books by lender category
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- Figure 34: Outstanding debt in loan books, allocation by lender category, year-end 2015 & 2016
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- Figure 35: Outstanding debt in loan books, allocation by lender category, year-end 2016
Commercial Borrowing
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- Key points
- Net lending in the last quarter highest in the four-year review period
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- Figure 36: UK MFI’s net loans to non-financial businesses, by size of business, £ million, Q4 2013-Q2 2017
Industry Structure
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- Key points
- Industry development
- Increasing regulation changing mortgage lending activity
- Ring-fencing
- Acquisitions and mergers
- Changes in the structure of the industry:
- Banks and building societies
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- Figure 37: Analysis of the Banks & Building societies industry structure, % change, 2012-16
- Financial leasing
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- Figure 38: Analysis of the financial leasing industry structure, % change, 2012-16
- Other credit granting
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- Figure 39: Analysis of the other credit granting industry structure, % change, 2012-16
- Structure by turnover
- Banks and building societies
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- Figure 40: Analysis of the financial structure of banks & building societies industry, 2015 & 2016
- Financial leasing
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- Figure 41: Analysis of the financial structure of the financial leasing industry, 2015 & 2016
- Other credit granting
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- Figure 42: Analysis of the financial structure of the other credit granting industry, 2015 & 2016
- Structure by employment
- Banks and building societies
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- Figure 43: Analysis of the Employment structure of banks and building societies industry, 2015 & 2016
- Financial leasing
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- Figure 44: Analysis of the employment structure of the financial leasing industry, 2015 & 2016
- Other credit granting
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- Figure 45: Analysis of the employment structure of the other credit granting industry, 2015 & 2016
Company Profiles
Aldermore Bank
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 46: Financial analysis of Aldermore Bank PLC, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
Barclays PLC
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 47: Financial analysis of Barclays PLC, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
HSBC
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 48: Financial analysis of HSBC bank, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
Lloyds Banking Group
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 49: Financial analysis of Lloyds Banking Group, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
Principality Building Society
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 50: Financial analysis of Principality Building Society, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
Royal Bank of Scotland Group
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 51: Financial analysis of RBS Group, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
Santander UK PLC
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 52: Financial analysis of Santander UK PLC, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
Shawbrook Bank
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- Recent company activity
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- Figure 53: Financial analysis of Shawbrook Bank, £ million, 2012-16
- Company strategy
Market Forecasts
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- Key points
- Commercial property lending may have peaked
- Ongoing structural changes to the market by lender category
- Which sectors will grow and which will decline?
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- Figure 54: UK commercial forecasts, % change and %, 2017-21
- Foreign investors well positioned to benefit from next few years of uncertainty
Further Sources and Contacts
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- Trade associations
- Association of Short Term Lenders
- CoStar
- The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales
- National Association of Commercial Finance Brokers
- RICS
- Trade magazines
- Bridging & Commercial
- Business Matters
- Commercial Reporter
- Loans Insider
- Mortgage Finance Gazette
- Mortgage Introducer
- Mortgage Strategy
- Trade exhibitions
- ASTL Annual Bridging Conference 2017 – Brexit and Bridging
- Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) Annual Launch
- Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) Autumn Conference
- Financial Services Expo London 2017
- The Financial Professional Show
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