Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
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- Definitions
- Consumer research
- ACORN
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- Demographic influences
- Value recovery continues
- The corn sector struggles
- Top three manufacturers dominate
- Heavily promoted category
- Distribution
- Consumer behaviour
- Future trends
Market Drivers
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- Shifting demographics
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- Figure 1: Trends and projections in total UK population, by age group, 1998-2007
- Fewer children a concern
- An ageing market a positive sign
- Young adults as snackers?
- More people living alone
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- Figure 2: Number of households, by household size, 1998-2007
- Skipping breakfast
- Health concerns and trends
- Nutrition focus – a double-edged sword?
- Advertising to children – the debate continues
- Organic
Market Size and Trends
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- Slow, steady growth characterises market
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- Figure 3: UK retail volume and value sales of breakfast cereal, 1998-2003
- Market has found growth avenue in hot cereal
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- Figure 4: UK retail volume and value sales of breakfast cereal, by type, 2001 and 2003
- Hot eating leaps forward
Market Segmentation
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- Value growth for RTE
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- Figure 5: UK retail volume and value sales of RTE cereal, 1998-2003
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- Figure 6: UK retail value sales of RTE cereal, by type and value, 2001 and 2003
- Children’s goes from strength to strength
- Wheat is still strong
- Corn is struggling
- Bran and health cereals – differing success
- Muesli – small but strong
- Strong growth in hot eating cereals
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- Figure 7: UK retail volume and value sales of hot cereal, 1998-2003
- Figure 8: UK retail volume sales of hot cereal, by type, 2001 and 2003
The Supply Structure
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- Market supply
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- Figure 9: Total breakfast cereal market, by manufacturer shares, 2001 and 2003
- The top four continue to grow
- A mixed fortune for smaller manufacturers
- RTE top-selling brands
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- Figure 10: The top-selling ready-to-eat breakfast cereals in the UK, by estimated brand shares, 2003
- Weetabix is number one
- Kellogg has six in the top ten
- Nestlé’ strong in the children’s sector
- Hot cereal brands
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- Figure 11: Hot breakfast cereal, brand shares, 2001 and 2003
- Companies and brands
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- Figure 12: Brand map of the UK breakfast cereal market, by major companies, January 2004
- Cereal Partners
- NPD
- Jordans
- NPD
- Kellogg
- NPD
- Quaker
- NPD
- Weetabix
- NPD
- Retailer brand (own-label)
- Dailycer
- Morning Foods
- NPD
- Other companies and smaller brands
- Organic
- New product briefs
- February 2004
- January 2004
- November 2003
- October 2003
- September 2003
- August 2003
Advertising and Promotion
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- Above the line
- Advertising presents a barrier to entry
- Expenditure reflects size and scale of the market
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- Figure 13: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, 1998-2003
- Figure 14: Annual percentage change – total media spending and total sales, 1999-2003
- Spend on hot eating produced results
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- Figure 15: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by breakfast type, 1998-2003
- RTE cereals
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- Figure 16: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on RTE breakfast cereals, by selected brands, 2001 and 2003
- Kellogg
- Cereal Partners
- Weetabix
- Quaker
- Other
- Hot cereal
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- Figure 17: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on hot breakfast cereals, by manufacturer and brand, 2001 and 2003
- Quaker
- Weetabix
- Below-the-line activity
- Price-related promotions boost volumes
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- Figure 18: Price-related promotions in the breakfast cereal market, February 2002-January 2004
- In-pack promotions generate appeal
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- Figure 19: In-pack promotions in the breakfast cereal market, February 2002-January 2004
- On-pack promotions dominate
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- Figure 20: On-pack promotions in the breakfast cereal market, February 2002-January 2004
Distribution
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- Multiple grocers span into convenience
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- Figure 21: UK retail distribution of breakfast cereal, 2001 and 2003
- A change of focus
- Other channels pose no threat to multiple dominance
The Consumer
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- Pan-European comparison
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- Figure 22: Consumption of breakfast cereals, by country, 2003
- Overall cereal consumption in GB
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- Figure 23: Consumption of breakfast cereals in GB, by age and gender, 2003
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- Figure 24: Consumption of breakfast cereals in GB, by income and working status, 2003
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- Figure 25: Consumption of breakfast cereals in GB, by region, 2003
- Children’s market makes impact
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- Figure 26: Consumption of breakfast cereals in GB, by presence of children and household size, 2003
- Weight of usage
- Frequency of consumption of cold breakfast cereal
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- Figure 27: Frequency of consuming cold breakfast cereals, 2003
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- Figure 28: Frequency of consuming cold breakfast cereals, by age and gender, 2003
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- Figure 29: Frequency of consuming cold breakfast cereals, by yearly income group and working status, 2003
- Urbanites skip on breakfast cereal
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- Figure 30: Frequency of consuming cold breakfast cereals, by region, 2003
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- Figure 31: Frequency of consuming cold breakfast cereals, by presence of children and household size, 2003
- Frequency of consuming hot breakfast cereals
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- Figure 32: Frequency of consuming hot breakfast cereals, by gender and age, 2003
- Age weighs in heavily across other groups
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- Figure 33: Frequency of consuming hot breakfast cereals, by yearly income group and working status, 2003
- Figure 34: Frequency of consuming hot breakfast cereal, by region, 2003
- A market polarisation in household types
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- Figure 35: Frequency of consuming hot breakfast cereals, by presence of children and household size, 2003
- Children – breakfast habits and breakfast cereal
- Competition from other breakfast foods
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- Figure 36: Food regularly eaten for breakfast amongst children aged 7-10, 2003
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- Figure 37: Food regularly eaten for breakfast amongst youths aged 11-14, 2003
- Trending away from cereal
- A wider repertoire
- How much cereal for kids?
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- Figure 38: Cereal helpings in a normal week amongst youths aged 7-14, 2003
The Consumer –Attitudes and Behaviour
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- Critical consumer findings
- Occasions for eating breakfast cereal
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- Figure 39: Occasions for eating breakfast cereal, November 2003
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- Figure 40: Occasions for eating breakfast cereal (nets), November 2003
- Snacking may be taking off
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- Figure 41: Occasions for eating RTE cereal, by gender, age and socio-economic status, November 2003
- A burgeoning base of loyalty
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- Figure 42: Occasions for eating RTE cereal, by presence of children, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, November 2003
- Widespread snacking
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- Figure 43: Occasions for eating RTE cereal, by marital status, working status and household size, November 2003
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- Figure 44: Occasions for eating RTE cereal, by region and ACORN categories, November 2003
- Assessing enthusiasm for breakfast cereals
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- Figure 45: Number of occasions breakfast cereal eaten, November 2003
- Single-occasion snackers could present opportunities
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- Figure 46: Single-occasion breakfast cereal eaters, November 2003
- Cross-promotion opportunities?
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- Figure 47: Number of occasions breakfast cereal eaten, by gender, age and socio-economic status, November 2003
- Using health messages and CRM could prove fruitful
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- Figure 48: Number of occasions breakfast cereal eaten, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, November 2003
- Diversity with the retired and part-time workers
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- Figure 49: Number of occasions breakfast cereal eaten, by working status and household size, November 2003
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- Figure 50: Number of occasions breakfast cereal eaten, by region and ACORN categories, November 2003
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- Figure 51: Number of occasions breakfast cereal eaten, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarkets used, November 2003
- Breakfast cereal attitudes and purchasing behaviour
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- Figure 52: Attitudes towards and purchasing habits for RTE cereals, November 2003
- Conservative repertoires for older adults
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- Figure 53: Attitudes towards and purchasing habits for RTE cereals, by gender, age and socio-economic status, November 2003
- Families would turn to multibuy offers
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- Figure 54: Attitudes towards and purchasing habits for RTE cereals, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, November 2003
- One-person households stick to their habits
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- Figure 55: Attitudes towards and purchasing habits for RTE cereals, by working status and household size, November 2003
- Expanding ACORN group and expanding selection
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- Figure 56: Attitudes towards and purchasing habits for RTE cereals, by region and ACORN categories, November 2003
- Targeting breakfast cereal occasions
- Breakfast routine or variety
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- Figure 57: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, by eating occasions, November 2003
- Snacking drives repertoires
- Identifying targets
- Overview
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- Figure 58: Identifying targets: breakfast cereal consumer groups, by gender, age and socio-economic status, November 2003
- Brands resonate with older respondents
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- Figure 59: Identifying targets: breakfast cereal consumer groups, by lifestage, presence of children and Mintel’s Special Groups, November 2003
- Figure 60: Identifying targets: breakfast cereal consumer groups, by working status and household size, November 2003
- Healthy habits in the South and Scotland
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- Figure 61: Identifying targets: breakfast cereal consumer groups, by region and ACORN categories, November 2003
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- Figure 62: Identifying targets: Breakfast cereal consumer groups, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarkets used, November 2003
- Healthy cereal swappers look for product and time variety
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- Figure 63: Number of breakfast cereal eating occasions, by breakfast cereal consumer groups, November 2003
The Future
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- Children will dominate
- Healthy older adults
- Snacking needs more development
- Redefinition of ‘health’
- Carbohydrate and Atkins?
- Lobbying groups will make themselves heard
- Indulgence will continue
- Smaller packages
Forecast
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- Reaching a mature market
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- Figure 64: Forecast of UK volume and value sales of cereal, at current prices, 2003-07
- Figure 65: Forecast of UK retail sales of cereal, at constant 2003 prices, 2003-07
- Value-adding the name of the game
- Slowdown in evidence even in value terms
- Convenience products a must
- The bad news – falling numbers of children
- The good news – growing affluence helps trading up
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