Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- After years of strong growth, value sales slip in 2016
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- Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
- Companies and brands
- Ella’s Kitchen pulls away from the pack
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares of sales in the UK wet and dry baby food market, by value, 2016*
- Strong performances in snacks from Organix, Kiddylicious and Bear
- Aptamil steals share from Cow & Gate in baby milk despite sales losses
- Driven by baby milk, 2016 sees a rise in launch activity
- Premiumisation, exciting flavours and positive nutrition emerge as key trends
- Adspend slumps to five-year low
- The consumer
- Homemade is preferred, but most parents use manufactured baby meals
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- Figure 3: Frequency of usage of baby food and drink, by type, February 2017
- Supermarkets are the favoured channel
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- Figure 4: Retailers from which baby/toddler food and drink is purchased, February 2017
- Contributing to babies’ five-a-day holds strong appeal
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- Figure 5: Factors which would make parents pick one baby/toddler food and drink product over another, February 2017
- On-the-go snacking presents opportunities
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- Figure 6: Interest in products and in-store solutions, February 2017
- Vegetable-based weaning is seen in a very positive light
- A third of parents prefer vegetarian baby/toddler meals
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards baby food and drink, February 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Targeting the on-the-go market can build on growth in baby snacks
- The facts
- The implications
- The health halo of plant proteins is igniting demand for these ingredients in baby food
- The facts
- The implications
- Could the discounters change the retail landscape in baby food and drink as they have done in babycare?
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- After years of strong growth, value sales slip in 2016
- Volume sales expected to benefit from rising birth rates
- Baby milk responsible for decline in 2016
- Value growth in baby food and snacks
- Birth rate edges up in 2015
- Sugar remains in the spotlight
Market Size and Forecast
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- After years of strong growth, value sales slip in 2016
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- Figure 8: Total UK retail volume and value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
- The future
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- Figure 9: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
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- Figure 10: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Baby milk falls into decline in 2016
- Value sales of baby food up 3% year on year
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- Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of baby food, drink and milk, by segment, 2013-16
- Booming sales of baby snacks
- No end to the decline in baby drinks
Market Drivers
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- Birth rate edges up in 2015
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- Figure 12: Live births in England and Wales, 2010-15
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- Figure 13: Live births in England and Wales, by area of residence of mother, 2015
- Decline predicted in number of 0-4s over 2016-21 poses a challenge
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- Figure 14: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
- Breastfeeding rates appear to be falling
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- Figure 15: Percentage of mothers initiating breastfeeding, 2008/09-2015/16
- Rise in working mothers bodes well for the market
- Health remains a focus for parents
- Sugar remains in the spotlight
- Positive nutrition appeals to parents
- Household budgets to come under pressure
- NPD looks to appeal to savvy shoppers
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Ella’s Kitchen pulls away from the pack …
- Own-label gains share, but still plays a minority role
- Strong performances in snacks from Organix, Kiddylicious and Bear
- Aptamil steals share from Cow & Gate despite sales losses
- Driven by baby milk, 2016 sees a rise in launch activity
- Premiumisation and positive nutrition emerge as key trends
- Adspend slumps to five-year low
Market Share
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- Ella’s Kitchen pulls away from the pack
- Trading up also benefited Little Dish
- Smaller brands made progress in 2016
- Mid-priced ranges are squeezed …
- … while own-label gains share, but still plays a minority role
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- Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK wet and dry baby food market, by value and volume, 2014-16
- Figure 17: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK wet and dry baby food market, by value and volume, 2014-16
- Strong performances from Organix, Kiddylicious and Bear
- Farley’s rusks fall out of favour
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- Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baby snacks market, by value and volume, 2014-16
- Figure 19: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK baby snacks market, by value and volume, 2014-16
- Aptamil steals share from Cow & Gate despite sales losses
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- Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baby milk market, by value and volume, 2014-16
- Figure 21: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK baby milk market, by value and volume, 2014-16
- Sales of Heinz baby drinks continue to tumble
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- Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baby milk market, by value and volume, 2014-16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Driven by baby milk, 2016 sees a rise in launch activity
- Launch activity in baby meals stabilises
- Premiumisation, exciting flavours and positive nutrition emerge as key trends
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- Figure 23: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food, drink and milk market, by sub-category, 2012-16
- Little Dish storms up the NPD ranks
- Piccolo looks to NPD to build on its early success
- Annabel Karmel ventures into the frozen aisle
- Aldi branches out into baby food, drink and milk
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- Figure 24: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food, drink and milk market, by brands vs own-label, 2013-16
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- Figure 25: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food, drink and milk market, by company, 2012-16
- Superfood ingredients are a focus of NPD in snacks
- Kiddylicious and Little Dish look to plant proteins
- Heinz makes its first foray into biscuits
- Jump in L/N/R innovation in 2016
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- Figure 26: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food market, by selected nutritional claims, 2012-17*
- A big rise in the five-a-day claim in 2016
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- Figure 27: Share of new product launches within the UK baby food market which contribute to at least one portion of babies’ recommended five-a-day, by sub-category, 2012-16
- Launches of baby formula/milk products rocket in 2016
- Kendamil brings newness to the baby milk category
- Hipp Organic launches first specialist milk
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend slumps to five-year low
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- Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on baby food and drink, 2012-16
- Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on baby food and drink, by category, 2012-16
- Danone grows its share of adspend
- Cow & Gate supports visibility of its Baby Club
- Aptamil pushes follow-on milk and Profutura range
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- Figure 30: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on baby food and drink, by advertiser, (sorted by total in 2016), 2012-16
- Ella’s Kitchen promotes weaning with veg
- Petits Filous uses social media to crowdsource new flavour ideas
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Homemade is preferred, but most parents use manufactured baby meals
- Supermarkets are the favoured channel
- Contributing to babies’ five-a-day holds strong appeal
- On-the-go snacking presents opportunities
- Vegetable-based weaning is seen in a very positive light
- A third of parents prefer vegetarian baby/toddler meals
Usage of Baby Food and Drink
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- Homemade baby food is a daily staple for the majority …
- … yet still over half of parents use manufactured baby food
- Young and wealthy parents are key users of bought baby food
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- Figure 31: Usage of baby food and drink, by type, December 2015 and February 2017
- Growing user base for baby snacks
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- Figure 32: Frequency of usage of baby food and drink, by type, February 2017
- Usage of baby milk geared towards men and young parents
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- Figure 33: Repertoire of different types of baby food and drink used, February 2017
Where Baby Food and Drink is Purchased
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- Supermarkets remain the favoured channel …
- … but baby food and drink ranges may be squeezed
- A third of parents buy baby food/drink from discounters
- Aldi and Lidl develop their private label offering
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- Figure 34: Retailers from which baby/toddler food and drink is purchased, February 2017
- Figure 35: Retailers from which baby/toddler food and drink is purchased, by product type, February 2017
- Purchasing at convenience stores peaks at 43% of Londoners
- The convenience channel offers growth potential
Choice Factors
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- Contributing to babies’ five-a-day holds strong appeal
- Strong interest from parents…
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- Figure 36: Factors which would make parents pick one baby/toddler food and drink product over another, February 2017
- …and from brands
- Untapped opportunities in snacks
- Cold-pressed can give differentiation
- Providing help in achieving the five-a-day
- Non-digital solutions can appeal
- Superfoods hold most sway among young parents and ABs
- Overall interest in superfoods fuels interest in baby food
- Superfoods must cut through the hype
- Scope to put the focus on good fats
- Being approved by nutritionists provides a mark that elicits trust
Interest in Products and In-store Solutions
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- On-the-go snacking presents opportunities
- Grab-and-go sections
- Single-portion packs
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- Figure 37: Interest in products and in-store solutions, February 2017
- Snacks for older children appeal to a third of parents
- Image of toddler snacks as healthy fuels interest
- ‘Green’ products are a good fit for baby food/drink
- Debate over pouches
- Offsetting environmental impact
Attitudes towards Baby Food and Drink
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- Vegetable-based weaning is seen in a very positive light …
- Lifestyle positioning can build trust
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- Figure 38: Attitudes towards baby food and drink, February 2017
- … as are savoury snacks
- A third of parents prefer vegetarian baby/toddler meals
- Plant protein can leverage green, safe and health credentials in baby food
- A third of savoury baby meals feature vegetarian claim
- The perceived benefits of spices are two-fold
- ‘Foodie’ trend drives interest in adventurous baby food
- Herbs and spices have a place in sweet as well as savoury dishes
- Brands can build loyalty by supporting flavour exploration
- Consumers are switched onto the health-boosting potential of spices
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Forecast Methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2016-21
- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of baby food, drink and milk, 2016-21
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