Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this report
Executive Summary
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- Smoking cessation sector bounces back
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- Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
- E-cigarette growth slows down
- Advertising spend sees steady rise in smoking cessation sector
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- Figure 2: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
- E-cigarette advertising sees limitations
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- Figure 3: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
- Smokers are in the minority
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- Figure 4: Smoking status, October 2016
- Rate of vaping has not changed
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- Figure 5: Vaping status, November 2014 and October 2016
- Stress-related vaping
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- Figure 6: Vaping occasions, October 2016
- Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular format
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- Figure 7: Purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2016
- Flavour is the biggest driver
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- Figure 8: Factors influencing the choice of E-cigarettes, October 2016
- Desire to quit smoking is high
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- Figure 9: Quit smoking status, October 2016
- Use of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
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- Figure 10: Methods used to quit smoking, November 2014 and October 2016
- NHS regulation is welcome
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Lack of E-cigarette brands in the smoking cessation sector
- The facts
- The implications
- NRT can be used in conjunction with E-cigarettes
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Value of the smoking cessation sector shows recovery
- Savvy shoppers buy at discounters
- Healthier lifestyles may drive alternatives to smoking
- Rising cost of tobacco
- Legislation is limiting E-cigarettes
Market Size and Forecast
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- Smoking cessation sector bounces back
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- Figure 12: UK value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
- E-cigarette growth slows down
- Long-term growth in smoking cessation predicted
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- Figure 13: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2011-21
- The impact of the EU referendum vote
- Smoking cessation has shown growth in the past
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- Figure 14: Alternative market scenarios for the post-Brexit smoking cessation market, at current prices, 2016-21
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- Figure 15: Detailed Post-Brexit scenarios for the smoking cessation market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Legislation changes may impact the sector
- Consumers are already shopping savvily
- Forecast methodology
Channels to Market
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- Discounters and online channels fare well
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- Figure 16: UK retail sales of smoking cessation aids, by outlet type and value, 2015 and 2016
- Specialist stores cater to E-cigarette market
Market Drivers
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- Rise in young people could impact smoking
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- Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
- Focus on healthy lifestyles
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- Figure 18: Trial and interest in healthy living trends, August 2016
- Tobacco: a growing expense
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- Figure 19: Indices of tobacco price, retail prices and affordability of tobacco, 1980-2016
- Decline in NRT prescriptions…
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- Figure 20: Prescription items of pharmacotherapies prescribed in primary care to help people quit smoking, by type of pharmacotherapy received, 2009/10-2014/15
- …however, death from smoking stays the same
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- Figure 21: Percentage of registered deaths among adults aged 35 and over, and deaths from diseases which can be caused by smoking, 2010-14
- E-cigarette media scares
- E-cigarettes should be a smoking cessation method…
- …however, licensing may be too expensive
- TPD and Brexit
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- NiQuitin sees biggest rise in market share
- Renewed NPD in smoking cessation sector
- E-cigarettes continue to see innovation
- Next-generation cigarettes likely to impact the sector
- Advertising spend is steadily on the rise
- E-cigarette advertising impacted by TPD
Market Share
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- Advertising contributes to sales in smoking cessation
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- Figure 22: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation products, years ending October, 2015 and 2016
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Smoking cessation saw renewed NPD in 2016
- Impact of TPD on E-cigarettes innovation
- NPD in E-cigarettes
- Next-generation cigarettes
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Cinema spend sees a rise
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- Figure 23: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
- New regulations impact E-cigarette advertising
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- Figure 24: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2013-October 2016
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Smokers are in the minority
- Non-smokers are unlikely to vape
- Vaping rates stay the same
- Work breaks trigger vaping usage
- Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular format
- Flavour is the biggest driver for E-cigarettes
- Interest in quitting smoking is high
- Use of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
- Vaping is trendy
Smoking and Vaping Status
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- Smokers are in the minority
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- Figure 25: Smoking status, October 2016
- Profile of vapers reflects the profile of smokers
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- Figure 26: Smokers and vapers, by age, October 2016
- Vaping is not on the rise
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- Figure 27: Vaping status, November 2014 and October 2016
- Vaping appeals to younger people
- Socio-economic gap in vapers
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- Figure 28: Vapers, by socio-economic group, November 2014 and October 2016
Vaping Occasions
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- Creatures of habit
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- Figure 29: Vaping occasions, October 2016
- Stress-related vaping
- Social vaping
Purchase of E-cigarettes
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- Value for money may drive purchase
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- Figure 30: Purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2016
- Convenience drives disposables
- Flavour is the most important factor
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- Figure 31: Factors influencing the choice of E-cigarettes, October 2016
- Price is important
- Recommendations are a lower driver
Quit Smoking Status
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- Interest in quitting smoking is lower in non-parents
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- Figure 32: Quit smoking status, October 2016
- Vaping has no impact on quitting status
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- Figure 33: Quit smoking status amongst vapers, October 2016
- E-cigarettes become lifestyle choice
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- Figure 34: Status of those who have already quit, October 2016
Methods Used to Quit Smoking
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- Usage of E-cigarettes as a smoking cessation method declines
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- Figure 35: Methods used to quit smoking, November 2014 and October 2016
- Usage of multiple methods
- E-cigarettes are effective
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- Figure 36: Usage of smoking cessation methods, by status of those who have already quit smoking, October 2016
Attitudes towards E-cigarettes
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- Vaping is a nuisance
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- Figure 37: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2016
- Vaping is trendy
- E-cigarette addiction
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- Figure 38: Agreement with selected statements amongst vapers, October 2016
- E-cigarette regulation is welcome
- Older people more likely to want more information
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- Figure 39: Any agreement with ‘There is not enough information on how E-cigarettes work’, by age, October 2016
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
- Forecast methodology
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