Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
- Still wines
- Sparkling wines
- Fortified wines
- Excluded from the Report
Executive Summary
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- Sales expected to dip in 2016
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of wine, 2011-21
- Companies and brands
- Hardys maintains still wine lead, despite sales dip
- Adspend falls in 2015
- Innovation looks to fruit flavours, alcohol content and craft cues
- The consumer
- Still wines remain the most popular but sparkling sees significant growth
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- Figure 2: Purchase of wines, by type, July 2015 and August 2016
- Favourite brand and grape are top factors
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- Figure 3: Factors influencing choice of wine, August 2016
- Cutting back on wine is seen as an easy way to save
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- Figure 4: Attitudes towards wine, August 2016
- Just 35% feel knowledgeable about wine
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- Figure 5: Further attitudes towards wine, August 2016
- Still wine seen to offer greatest versatility
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- Figure 6: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of alcoholic drinks, August 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Lower/no-alcohol and smaller bottles offer a way to appeal to health-conscious wine drinkers
- The facts
- The implications
- Wine should do more to leverage the wealth of inherent craft cues
- The facts
- The implications
- Marketing wine as more ‘fun’ would help to deconstruct traditional notions of the category
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales expected to dip in 2016
- Still wine sees a sluggish performance
- Success of sparkling wine is set to continue; albeit at a slower rate
- Champagne sees return to volume growth
- Fortified wine sees limited growth
- The off-trade continues to outperform the on-trade
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales expected to dip in 2016
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- Figure 7: Total value and volume sales of wine, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- The future
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- Figure 8: Forecast of UK value sales of wine, 2011-21
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- Figure 9: Forecast of UK volume sales of wine, 2011-21
- The impact of the EU referendum vote
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- Figure 10: Alternative scenarios for the wine market, 2016-21
- Figure 11: Alternative scenarios for the wine market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Brexit vote has limited impact on consumers’ finances
- Rising prices are imminent
- The market in 2008-09
- Savvy habits are already established
Market Segmentation
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- Still wine sees a sluggish performance
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- Figure 12: Total value and volume sales of still wine, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of still wine, 2011-21
- Success of sparkling wine is set to continue; albeit at a slower rate
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- Figure 14: Total value and volume sales of sparkling wine, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of sparkling wine, 2011-21
- Champagne sees return to volume growth
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- Figure 16: Total value and volume sales of Champagne, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 17: Forecast of UK value sales of Champagne, 2011-21
- Fortified wine sees limited growth
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- Figure 18: Total value and volume sales of fortified wine, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
- Figure 19: Forecast of UK value sales of fortified wine, 2011-21
Channels to Market
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- The off-trade continues to outperform the on-trade
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- Figure 20: UK value and volume sales of wine in the on- and off-trade, by type, 2014-16
Market Drivers
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- Wine duty rises slightly
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- Figure 21: UK excise duty rates for wines, 2006-16
- Brexit to push up prices for imports
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- Figure 22: Consumer price indices for all items, wine, beer and spirits (2006=100), 2006-16
- Consumer caution could hit discretionary spending
- New guidelines put the spotlight on alcohol consumption
- New opportunities for lower/no-alcohol drinks
- Demographic changes impact the market
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Hardys maintains still wine lead, despite sales dip
- Prosecco brands dominate sparkling wine
- LVMH leads Champagne, outpacing growth in the market
- Buckfast holds onto lead in fortified wine
- Adspend falls in 2015
- Innovation looks to fruit flavours, alcohol content and craft cues
Market Share
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- Hardys maintains lead in still wine, despite a dip in sales
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- Figure 23: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading still wine brands, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Barefoot and Casillero del Diablo perform strongly
- Prosecco brands dominate sparkling wine
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- Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading sparkling wine brands, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- LVMH leads Champagne, outpacing growth in the market
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- Figure 25: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading Champagne brands, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Buckfast holds onto lead in fortified wine
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- Figure 26: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading fortified wine brands, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- E&J Gallo launches a Prosecco
- Fruit-flavoured trend continues in still wines
- Brands expand lower/no-alcohol wine ranges
- New colours appeal to drinkers’ senses
- Over-ice trend gains in popularity among consumers
- Retailers look to exclusivity to drive premiumisation
- Retailer exclusives
- Aldi channels craft trend with craft wine launch
- Retailers look to new channels
- Pop-ups provide another route to market
- Aldi looks to the online channel
- Vinomofo eyes UK launch
- Smaller formats appeal
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertisers cut back in 2015
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- Figure 27: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on still, sparkling and fortified wine, 2012-16
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- Figure 28: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on still, sparkling and fortified wine, by category, 2012-16
- Lidl leads advertiser spend
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- Figure 29: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on still, sparkling and fortified wine, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Brands look to alternative marketing support
- Sponsorship provides an outlet
- Festivals and experiential campaigns
- Veuve Clicquot pays homage to founder through art exhibitions
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Still wines remain the most popular but sparkling sees significant growth
- Only a fifth of people drink just one glass of wine per occasion
- Favourite brand and grape are top factors
- Cutting back on wine is seen as an easy way to save
- Just 35% feel knowledgeable about wine
- Still wine seen to offer greatest versatility and value for money
Purchase of Wines
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- Still wines remain the most popular but sparkling sees significant growth
- Newer formats gain in popularity
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- Figure 30: Purchase of wines, by type, July 2015 and August 2016
- Still wine buying peaks among over-65s; sparkling wine among under-45s
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- Figure 31: Purchase of still and sparkling wines, by age, August 2016
- In-home bias apparent for all wines
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- Figure 32: Purchase of wines, by type and location, August 2016
Volumes of Wine Consumed
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- Only a fifth of people drink just one glass of wine per occasion
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- Figure 33: Volumes of wine consumed on a typical occasion, August 2016
- Over-55s limit their intake to 250ml or less
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- Figure 34: Volumes of wine consumed on a typical occasion, by age, August 2016
Factors Influencing Choice of Wine
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- Favourite brand and grape are top factors
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- Figure 35: Factors influencing choice of wine, August 2016
- Potential for unique and intense flavours
Attitudes towards Wine
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- Cutting back on wine is seen as an easy way to save
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- Figure 36: Attitudes towards wine, August 2016
- Coloured wine appeals particularly to younger drinkers
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- Figure 37: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in orange wine (ie white wine where the grape skins are left in for a time during fermentation, giving an orange colour and extra aromas and flavours)’, by age, August 2016
- On-tap wine is well placed to grow
Further Attitudes towards Wine
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- Just 35% feel knowledgeable about wine
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- Figure 38: Further attitudes towards wine, August 2016
- Consumers opt for convenience, preferring screw caps to corks
- Young sparkling wine buyers are most open to smaller formats
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- Figure 39: Still, sparkling and fortified Wine – CHAID – Tree output, August 2016
- Uncertainty over natural wine
Qualities Associated with Alcoholic Drinks
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- Still wine seen to offer greatest versatility and value for money
- Champagne fails to deliver value for money
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- Figure 40: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of alcoholic drinks, August 2016
- Figure 41: Qualities associated with different types of alcoholic drinks, August 2016
- Sparkling varieties are seen to be most ‘fun’
- Methodology
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Forecast Methodology
- Consumer research methodology
- CHAID – Methodology
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- Figure 42: Still, sparkling and fortified wine – CHAID – Table output, August 2016
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total wine market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total wine market, by volume, 2016-21
- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the still wine market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the still wine market, by volume, 2016-21
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- Figure 47: Forecast of UK volume sales of still wine, 2011-21
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the sparkling wine market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the sparkling wine market, by volume, 2016-21
- Figure 50: Forecast of UK volume sales of sparkling wine, 2011-21
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- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Champagne market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the Champagne market, by volume, 2016-21
- Figure 53: Forecast of UK volume sales of Champagne, 2011-21
- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the fortified wine market, by value, 2016-21
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- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the fortified wine market, by volume, 2016-21
- Figure 56: Forecast of UK volume sales of fortified wine, 2011-21
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Appendix – Market Drivers
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- Figure 57: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 58: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading still winemakers, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Figure 59: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading sparkling winemakers, 2014/15 and 2015/16
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- Figure 59: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading Champagne makers, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Figure 60: UK retail value and volume sales of the leading fortified winemakers, 2014/15 and 2015/16
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