Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- New car market to slow briefly before resuming growth
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- Figure 1: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast of total newly purchased light vehicles, 2011-21
- Cheap gas helps fuel the light truck boom and dampen small car demand
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- Figure 2: All grades all formulations retail gasoline prices, dollars per gallon, January 2007-May 2016
- Recalls and scandals impact consumer perceptions and buying behavior
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- Figure 3: Volkswagen Automotive Group sales through July 2015 and 2016
- The opportunities
- Millennials looking to buy new over used
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- Figure 4: Type of purchase, by generation, July 2016
- Consumers receptive to preventative safety technology
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- Figure 5: Type of features desired, July 2016
- Integrating technology attractive to consumers
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- Figure 6: Safety and technology interest, infotainment system, by generation, July 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- New car sales expected to slow but still grow
- SUVs and crossovers dominate market
- Ford F-Series still the top-selling model
Market Size and Forecast
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- Slower growth for new vehicle sales, but growth nonetheless
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- Figure 7: Total US unit sales and fan chart forecast of total newly purchased light vehicles, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US unit sales and forecast of new cars, in thousands, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- SUVs and crossovers find success
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales of new cars, by segment, in units, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 10: Vehicle sales by segment, YTD July 2016
Market Factors
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- Gas prices still remain low
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- Figure 11: All grades all formulations retail gasoline prices, dollars per gallon, January 2007-May 2016
- Interest rates remain historically low
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- Figure 12: Average loan rates, Q1 2015 & Q1 2016
- Figure 13: Ford email advertisement, August 2016
- Millennials buying new
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- Figure 14: Share of US population by generation, 2011-21
- Figure 15: Type of vehicle purchase, by generation, July 2016
- Average age of vehicles remains high
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- Figure 16: Average age of vehicles, 1995-2015
- Americans driving more miles than ever
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- Figure 17: US miles traveled, all roads and streets, 1990-2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- General Motors offers wide selection of SUVs and crossovers
- Volkswagen struggles post Diesel-gate
- Tesla – Driving through electric avenue
- Jeep brand towing Fiat Chrysler US to relevancy
Manufacturer Sales of Pickups
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- Ford dominates pickup segment with F-Series
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- Figure 18: Manufacturer sales of pickup trucks, YTD through July 2016
Manufacturer Sales of SUVs/Crossovers
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- Domestic vs import
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- Figure 19: Percentage of SUV/crossover sales by origin of manufacturer, YTD through July 2016
- Japanese signature crossovers have widespread appeal
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- Figure 20: Top 10 SUV/crossover models 2016
What’s Working?
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- Midsized SUVs and crossovers
- Are minivans making a comeback?
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- Figure 21: Minivan sales YTD through July, 2015 and 2016
What’s Struggling?
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- Smaller cars losing share
- Volkswagen recovering from Diesel-gate
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- Figure 22: Volkswagen Automotive Group sales YTD through July 2015 and 2016
What’s Next?
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- Aluminum-body vehicles
- Ride-sharing drivers need new cars
- “I’m sorry Dave, I’m afraid I can’t let you change lanes”
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Safety remains top concern
- Women fueling SUV/crossover boom
- Older Millennials ready to upgrade to a new car
- High-income households put cars on cards
Purchase Intent and Vehicles Considered
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- More than one third of consumers plan to buy a car in the next year; three quarters plan to buy new
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- Figure 23: Car purchase intent, July 2016
- Figure 24: Type of purchase considered, July 2016
- Millennials most likely to buy new
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- Figure 25: Type of purchase considered, by generation, July 2016
- Sedans and SUVs lead vehicle types considered
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- Figure 26: Type of vehicle considered, July 2016
- Women drive SUV/crossover growth
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- Figure 27: Interest in SUV/crossovers, by gender and age, July 2016
Desired Features
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- Consumers seek longevity in their new car purchase
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- Figure 28: Type of features desired, July 2016
- Safety package will attract most interest
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- Figure 29: TURF analysis – Technology and safety features consumers are willing to pay for, July 2016
- Blacks and Hispanics more interested in roadside assistance
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- Figure 30: Safety and technology features – Roadside assistance, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2016
- Intentional deception from Volkswagen breeds distrust with consumers
- Parents want room for their kids and their kids’ friends
Price Perceptions and Payment Method
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- Consumer pricing expectations not in line with reality
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- Figure 31: New cars – Optimal price, July 2016
- Wealthier consumers using cash and cards for cars
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- Figure 32: Payment method, by household income, July 2016
Main Use of Intended Vehicle
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- Consumers ready to buy may opt into e-hail services
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- Figure 33: Main use of intended vehicle, by purchase intent, July 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 34: Total US retail sales and forecast of new cars, by segment, in units, 2011-21
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 35: Total market manufacturer shares, 2014 and 2015
- Figure 36: Total manufacturer shares – New passenger cars, 2014 and 2015
- Figure 37: Total manufacturer shares – New light trucks, 2014 and 2015
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