Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Growth expected to continue at slow pace
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
- More consumers report purchasing less bread
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- Figure 2: Purchase behaviors, change in bread consumption, May 2016
- Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
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- Figure 3: Frequency of eating different types of bread, May 2016
- The opportunities
- Align bread with Millennials’ more purposeful snacking
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- Figure 4: Use occasions, by age, May 2016
- Cater to the different health needs of different age groups
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- Figure 5: Purchase considerations, by age, May 2016
- Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
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- Figure 6: Attitudes toward bread, by changes in bread purchase, May 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Only slow growth for large, mature category
- Sales growth stagnates for fresh loaf bread as consumption declines
- Among other types, tortillas lead growth
Market Size and Forecast
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- Growth expected to continue at slow pace
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of packaged bread, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Sales growth stagnates for fresh loaf bread as consumption declines
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- Figure 9: Sales of packaged bread, by segment, 2016 (est)
- Among other types, tortillas lead growth
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- Figure 10: Total US sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2011-16
Market Factors
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- Core user groups growing
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- Figure 11: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
- Figure 12: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
- Obesity on the rise
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- Figure 13: Percentage of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2003-06 to 2011-14
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Top two competitors market extensive brand portfolios
- Smaller competitors more focused on individual brands or segments
- Gluten-free trend continues to drive growth for targeted brands
- Organic brands gain traction, and attention from major competitor
- Free-from and clean-label claims grow more prominent
- New launches incorporate ancient grains
Company Sales of Packaged Bread
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- Top two competitors market extensive brand portfolios
- Smaller competitors more focused on individual brands or segments
- Company sales of packaged bread
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- Figure 14: MULO sales of packaged bread, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Gluten-free trend continues to drive growth for targeted brands
- Organic brands gain traction and attention from major competitor
- Cobblestone focuses on creative cooking and sandwich making
- King’s Hawaiian rolls out on taste and indulgence
- Wonder Bread rises again
What’s Struggling?
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- Frozen
- Private label
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- Figure 15: Bread product launches by branded vs private label, 2011-16*
What’s Next?
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- Free-from and clean-label claims grow more prominent
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- Figure 16: Bread product launches by top claims, 2011-16*
- New launches incorporate ancient grains
- Packaging extends shelf life
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
- Whole grain an increasingly common health priority
- Sandwich the most common way to eat bread, other uses slip
- More consumers report purchasing less bread
- Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
Bread Consumption Frequency
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- Regular loaf bread by far the most widely and frequently eaten
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- Figure 17: Frequency of eating different types of bread, May 2016
- Greater variety of bread types in larger households
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- Figure 18: Frequency of eating different types of bread, any weekly eaten, by household size, May 2016
- Hispanic bread eaters enjoy variety
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- Figure 19: Frequency of eating different types of bread, any weekly eaten, by household size, May 2016
- Young adults more likely to eat a variety of specialty breads
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- Figure 20: Consumption of nontraditional/ethnic breads, May 2016
Bread Purchase Considerations
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- Whole grain an increasingly common health priority
- Clean labels increasingly important
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- Figure 21: Purchase considerations, May 2016
- Different health needs for different age groups
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- Figure 22: Purchase considerations, by age, May 2016
Use Occasions
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- Sandwich the most common way to eat bread, other uses slip
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- Figure 23: Use occasions, May 2016
- Opportunity to align bread with Millennials’ more purposeful snacking
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- Figure 24: Use occasions, by age, May 2016
- New use ideas could boost consumption among bread lovers
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- Figure 25: Use occasions, purchase behavior groups, May 2016
Purchase Behaviors
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- More consumers report purchasing less bread
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- Figure 26: Purchase behaviors, change in bread consumption, May 2016
- Young adults more likely to report purchasing more bread
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- Figure 27: purchase behaviors, by age, May 2016
Attitudes toward Bread
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- Health – Whole grain and weight
- Convert enjoyment of new bread to purchase
- Keep it fresh
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- Figure 28: Attitudes toward bread, May 2016
- Refocus on the enjoyment of bread
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- Figure 29: Attitudes toward bread, by changes in bread purchase, May 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 30: Total US sales and forecast of bread products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 31: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 32: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh loaf bread, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of rolls/buns/croissants, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 34: Total US retail sales and forecast of bagels/bialys/English muffins/pita bread, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 35: Total US retail sales and forecast of tortillas, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 36: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen/refrigerated bread products, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 37: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store bakery bread products, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 38: MULO dollar sales of packaged bread, by segment and subsegment, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 39: MULO volume sales of packaged bread, by segment and subsegment, in pounds, 2011-16
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- Figure 40: Total US retail sales of packaged bread, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 41: MULO sales of fresh loaf bread by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 42: MULO sales of rolls/buns/croissants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 43: MULO sales of bagels/bialys/english muffins/pita bread by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 44: MULO sales of tortillas, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 45: MULO sales of refrigerated/frozen bread products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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