Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Dollar sales hold as volume sales decline
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
- 22% of frozen treat buyers are buying less
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- Figure 2: Frozen treat statements – Change in consumption, April 2016
- Frozen yogurt brands are experiencing a meltdown
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- Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- The opportunities
- A focus on quality can appeal to both the taste and health interests of key consumers
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- Figure 4: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by generation, April 2016
- Smaller formats appeal to target consumers
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- Figure 5: Frozen treat types – Format, by generation April 2016
- Variety can boost engagement
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- Figure 6: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by generation, April 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Volume sales decline by 5% 2011-15, little dollar sales change
- Ice cream makes up half of category sales
- Frozen yogurt brands are experiencing a meltdown
- Foodservice offerings have higher perception of premium
Market Size and Forecast
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- Volume sales decline by 5% 2011-15, little dollar sales change
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 10: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, 2011-15
Market Breakdown
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- Ice cream makes up half of category sales
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2016
- Gelato continues to grow, but strong growth patterns may soon thaw
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- Figure 12: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 13: Frozen treat launches, by gelato, 2012-16
- Sherbet segment sees overall declines
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen treats, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Volume sales decline in all segments at MULO
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- Figure 15: MULO volume sales of frozen treats, by segment, 2011-15
Market Perspective
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- Store purchase outpaces foodservice
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- Figure 16: Purchase location, April 2016
- Ice cream shops lead perception of premium
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- Figure 17: Perceptions of premium, April 2016
- 22% of frozen treat buyers are buying less
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- Figure 18: Frozen treat statements – Change in purchase, April 2016
- Half of consumers who are buying less are doing so for health reasons
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- Figure 19: Frozen treat statements – Change in purchase, by purchasing less, April 2016
- Health categories make a play for indulgence
Market Factors
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- Health concerns remain top of mind with consumers
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- Figure 20: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
- Most adults believe it’s better to eat well than use diet products
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- Figure 21: Agreement that well-rounded diet is better than diet products, current diet status, July 2015
- FDA reveals updated nutrition facts panel
- Safety concerns creep in among key consumer groups
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- Figure 22: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by generation, April 2016
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- Figure 23: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by generation and Hispanic origin, April 2016
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- Figure 24: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by parental status, April 2016
- Non-dairy may be one solution to easing fears
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- Figure 25: Frozen treat statements – Safety, by non-dairy purchase, April 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Unilever maintains the top spot in MULO sales of frozen treats
- Blue Bell disappears from the leader board
- Indulgence performs well in novelties
- Sorbet to the rescue
Company Sales of Frozen Treats
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- Unilever maintains the top spot
- Nestlé also sees sales gains
- Blue Bell disappears from the leader board
- Dean Foods boosts ice cream investment
- Company sales of frozen treats
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- Figure 26: Company sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
- Leading companies strengthen their lead
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- Figure 27: Company sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
What’s Working?
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- Unilever brands continue to gain steam
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- Figure 28: “Häagen-Dazs, ‘äah Vanilla,’” online video, April 2016
- Figure 29: “Tweets to the Dairy – ‘She looks like a tub of Mint Chocolate Chip,’” online video, April 2016
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- Figure 30: “‘It's Complicated’ – Turkey Hill makes life simpler for complicated Facebook users,” online video, October 2015
- Figure 31: MULO sales of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Indulgence performs well in frozen novelties segment
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Organic comes close to surpassing nonorganic in natural channels
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- Figure 33: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
- Figure 34: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
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- Figure 35: Ice cream consumption, by type, 2011-15
- Figure 36: Frozen yogurt consumption, by type, 2011-15
What’s Struggling?
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- Sherbet, sorbet, ices segment declines; sorbet to the rescue
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- Figure 37: MULO sales of sherbet, sorbets, and ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Flavor innovation may also help the segment
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- Figure 38: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading flavors, 2016*
- Frozen yogurt brands experience a meltdown, non-dairy could put the freeze on losses
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- Figure 39: MULO sales of frozen yogurt and non-dairy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Frozen dairy desserts decline
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- Figure 40: Total retail sales of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, by type, at current prices, 2011-16
- Non-dairy makes up more than a quarter of natural channel sales
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- Figure 41: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending April 17, 2016
What’s Next?
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- Implying health without restriction
- Fresh
- Clean
- Taking the focus off of sugar
- Function
- Sense of place
- Doubling down on indulgence
- Buttermilk mentions are on the rise
- Encouraging trial through new flavors and formats
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Category experiences high consumer penetration
- Premium positioning is more likely to imply good taste than health
- The majority of frozen treat buyers are doing so in half-gallon sizes
- Flavor dominates purchase drivers
- Health plays a role for 19% of frozen treat buyers
Frozen Treat Purchase
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- Category experiences high consumer penetration
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- Figure 42: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location – Nets, April 2016
- Ice cream leads purchase, some change in participation seen
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- Figure 43: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, April 2016
- Younger adults are key targets
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- Figure 44: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by generation, April 2016
- Hispanics are more likely than non-Hispanics to purchase all products
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- Figure 45: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Gelato appears most cost prohibitive
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- Figure 46: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by HH income, April 2016
- Parents are significantly more likely to purchase frozen treats
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- Figure 47: Frozen treat purchase – Any purchase location, by parental status, April 2016
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- Figure 48: Frozen treat consumption – Kids (aged 6-11), 2011-15
- Figure 49: Frozen treat consumption – Teens (aged 12-17), 2011-15
Frozen Treat Types
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- Close to a third of frozen treat buyers purchase store brands
- Low-/no- claims falling out of favor
- Non-dairy purchase small, but growing
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- Figure 50: Frozen treat types, April 2016
- Millennials appear most likely to accept store brands as premium
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- Figure 51: Frozen treat types, by generation, April 2016
- Health-focused options retain strength among Hispanics
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- Figure 52: Frozen treat types, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Premium positioning is more likely to imply good taste than health
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- Figure 53: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, April 2016
- …but key consumers are more likely to associate premium with health
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- Figure 54: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by generation, April 2016
- Figure 55: Frozen treat statements – Premium – Agree, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Key driver analysis: Premium purchase
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- Figure 56: Key drivers of premium/luxury frozen treat purchase format, April 2016
Frozen Treat Flavor
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- The majority of frozen treat buyers purchase single flavors
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- Figure 57: Frozen treat types – Flavor, April 2016
- Consumers are open to variety
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- Figure 58: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, April 2016
- Variety particularly appeals to Millennials
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- Figure 59: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by generation, April 2016
- Hispanics are ripe for frozen treat introductions
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- Figure 60: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Lower-income earners stick with what they know
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- Figure 61: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by HH income, April 2016
- Snackers are open to variety
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- Figure 62: Frozen treat statements – Flavor – Agree, by occasion, April 2016
Frozen Treat Format
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- The majority of frozen treat buyers are doing so in half-gallon sizes
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- Figure 63: Frozen treat types – Format, April 2016
- Smaller formats appeal to younger shoppers
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- Figure 64: Frozen treat types – Format, by generation April 2016
- Pints don’t have strong appeal among Hispanics
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- Figure 65: Frozen treat types – Format, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Small sizes particularly appeal to premium shoppers
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- Figure 66: Frozen treat types – Format, by presence of children, April 2016
- Variety appeals to parents
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- Figure 67: Frozen treat types – Format, by presence of children, April 2016
- Small formats give consumers a helping hand
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- Figure 68: Frozen treat statements – Small format, April 2016
Frozen Treat Purchase Drivers
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- Flavor dominates purchase decision, indulgence outperforms health
- Rethinking health
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- Figure 69: Frozen treat purchase drivers, April 2016
- Flavor is of particular appeal to older shoppers
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- Figure 70: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by generation, April 2016
- Hispanics are less influenced by price, more interested in natural
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- Figure 71: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Interest in premium directly correlates with income
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- Figure 72: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by HH income, April 2016
- Parents prioritize quality over price
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- Figure 73: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by presence of children, April 2016
- Store brand buyers are price conscious
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- Figure 74: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by type, April 2016
- A third of frozen treat buyers are willing to pay more for natural
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- Figure 75: Frozen treat statements – Natural, April 2016
- …even more so among Millennials and Hispanics
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- Figure 76: Frozen treat statements – Natural, by generation, April 2016
- Figure 77: Frozen treat statements – Natural, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Natural products appeal to those with safety concerns
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- Figure 78: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by safety statements, April 2016
- Local lacks a strong draw
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- Figure 79: Frozen treat statements – Local, April 2016
Frozen Treat Consumption
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- 40% of frozen treat buyers eat the products weekly
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- Figure 80: Frozen treat statements – Agree – Weekly consumption, April 2016
- Variety ties to consumption frequency
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- Figure 81: Frozen treat format – Any purchase, by consumption frequency, April 2016
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- Figure 82: Frozen treat statements, by consumption frequency, April 2016
- Dessert leads consumption occasion, snack consumption grows
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- Figure 83: Frozen treat consumption occasion, April 2016
- Figure 84: Frozen treat format – Any purchase, by consumption occasion, April 2016
- Dessert seekers want indulgence and natural products
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- Figure 85: Frozen treat purchase drivers, by consumption occasion, April 2016
Role of Health
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- Health plays a role for 19% of frozen treat buyers
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- Figure 86: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, April 2016
- Millennials are most likely to say health factors into purchase decision
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- Figure 87: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by generation, April 2016
- Health plays a role for nearly a third of Hispanics
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- Figure 88: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Health plays a stronger role in the purchase decision of higher earners
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- Figure 89: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by HH income, April 2016
- A quarter of parents consider health in frozen treat purchase
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- Figure 90: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by parental status, April 2016
- Hispanic parents are twice as likely to consider health in their purchase
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- Figure 91: Frozen treat statements – Role of health, by Hispanic origin and parental status, April 2016
Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Key Driver Analysis
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- Figure 92: Key drivers of premium/luxury frozen treat purchase format – Key driver output, April 2016
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations
Appendix: Market
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- Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 94: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream/frozen dairy dessert, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 96: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 97: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 98: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 99: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 100: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 101: MULO volume sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, 2011-15
- Figure 102: MULO volume sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, 2011-15
- Figure 103: MULO volume sales frozen novelties, 2011-15
- Figure 104: MULO volume sales frozen yogurt/non-dairy, 2011-15
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- Figure 105: MULO volume sales sherbet/sorbet/ices, 2011-15
- Figure 106: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 107: US convenience store sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 108: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
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- Figure 109: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
- Figure 110: Natural supermarket sales of organic ice cream, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
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- Figure 111: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
- Figure 112: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by gluten-free labeling/certification, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
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- Figure 113: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by GMO ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
- Figure 114: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by “natural” labeling or perception, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
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- Figure 115: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
- Figure 116: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
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Appendix: Key Players
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- Figure 117: Manufacturer sales of frozen treats, 52-weeks ending March 20, 2016
- Figure 118: Total retail sales of gelato and gelato-based novelties, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 119: Frozen treat launches, by gelato, 2012-16
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- Figure 120: Ice cream launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
- Figure 121: Ice cream launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
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- Figure 122: Frozen novelty launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
- Figure 123: Frozen novelty launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
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- Figure 124: Frozen yogurt launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
- Figure 125: Frozen yogurt launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
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- Figure 126: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading claims, 2012-16
- Figure 127: Sherbet, sorbet, ices launches, by leading flavors, 2012-16
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- Figure 128: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
- Figure 129: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
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- Figure 130: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by fat content, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
- Figure 131: Natural supermarket sales of ice cream, by lactose-free labeling, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks April 20, 2014-April 17, 2016
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- Figure 132: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 133: Ice cream consumption, by type, 2011-15
- Figure 134: Frozen yogurt consumption, by type, 2011-15
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Appendix: Consumer
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- Figure 135: Mean quarts of ice cream/sherbet consumed, 2011-15
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- Figure 136: Frozen treat consumption – Teens (aged 12-17), 2011-15
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- Figure 137: Frozen treat consumption – Kids (aged 6-11), 2011-15
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