Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Soup category sales are flat
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Sodium levels are a challenge for packaged soup
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- Figure 2: Packaged soup issues, by gender and age, March 2016
- Consumers are purchasing many different soups
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- Figure 3: Repertoire analysis, types of soup purchased, March 2016
- The opportunities
- Whitespace exists in the soup category
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- Figure 4: Correspondence analysis – Soup-type association, March 2016
- Consumers are open to new soup packaging
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- Figure 5: Soup attitudes, by generation, March 2016
- Refrigerated soup is an area of growth
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2010-16 (est)
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Soups sales remain flat due to RTS wet and condensed categories
- Refrigerated soups are an area of opportunity
- Health trends affect the soup market
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of soup remains flat; performance varies by segment
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- RTS wet and condensed sales in decline; dry will soon surpass condensed
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2010-16 (est)
- Figure 11: Share of total US retail sales of soup, by category, 2014 and 2016 (est)
- Year-over-year sales declines for RTS wet and condensed soups
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Falling sales of ramen are bringing down the dry soup segment
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- Figure 14: Share of total US retail sales of dry soup 2015 and current 52-weeks ending February 2016
- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Sales of broth continue to grow
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- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at current prices, 2011-21
- Refrigerated soup makes up the lion’s share of refrigerated/frozen category
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- Figure 17: Share of total US retail sales of refrigerated/frozen soup, 2015 and current 52-weeks ending February 2016
- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Perspective
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- Restaurant competition
Market Factors
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- Changing demographics will affect the soup category
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- Figure 19: Population by generation, 2011-2021
- Cooking culture and social media
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- Figure 20: Statement agreement, “I really enjoy cooking”, fall 2010-fall 2015
- “Free-from” trends are shaping what people eat
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- Figure 21: Statement agreement, “I prefer to eat foods without artificial additives”, fall 2010-fall 2015
- “Souping” is the hot new health trend
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Cooking consumers are driving broth growth
- Organic, free-from soups are a bright spot in the RTS wet category
- Ramen sales are hurting the dry soup category
Manufacturer Sales of Soup
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- Companies see soup sales slump
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of soup (all categories), by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
- Campbell’s loses market share to General Mills in RTS wet soup category
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- Figure 23: MULO sales of ready to serve wet soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
- A cooking culture is helping the dry soup category
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- Figure 24: “Knorr #LoveAtFirstTaste”, online video, April 2016
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of dry soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
- Campbell’s maintains dominance in broth/stock category
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of wet broth/stock, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
- Refrigerated soup sees gains while frozen soup declines
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- Figure 27: MULO sales of refrigerated fresh soup/ frozen soup, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Organic, “free-from” soups resonate with consumers
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- Figure 28: Wet soup launches, by select claims, 2013-2016*
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of General Mills Inc., Annie’s Homegrown Inc. RTS wet Soup
- Figure 30: MULO sales of Campbell’s Soup Co. Campbell’s Organic RTS soup
- Home chefs are driving sales of broths/dry soups
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of select products
- Private label refrigerated soups have room to grow
What’s Struggling?
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- Despite consumer health concerns, sales of healthy soup fall
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of select RTS wet soups
- Regular ramen isn’t satisfying
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- Figure 33: MULO sales of select ramen products
- Frozen soups are failing to capture consumers
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- Figure 34: MULO sales of select frozen soup products
What’s Next?
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- Easy to use packaging may be key to growth
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- Figure 35: RTS wet soup in tubs launched in 2016
- Figure 36: Wet soup launches, by packaging, 2013-2016*
- Gazpacho offers health and convenience across dayparts
- Soups look to the world for inspiration
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Packaging innovations may revitalize the RTS wet soup category
- There are whitespaces for different soup types
- Consumers are aware of soup sodium levels
Soup Purchases
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- Soup is a staple product
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- Figure 37: Soup category purchases, March 2016
- Consumers over 45 are the core canned soup customers
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- Figure 38: Soup category purchases, by age, March 2016
- Women are key soup/broth users
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- Figure 39: Soup category purchases, by gender, March 2016
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- Figure 40: Soup category purchases, by gender and age, March 2016
- Young parents are driving purchases of soup in unique packaging
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- Figure 41: Soup category purchases, by parents (of children under 18) and age, March 2016
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- Figure 42: Soup category purchases, by parents (of children under 18) and gender, March 2016
- Soup cross-utilization
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- Figure 43: Soup category cross-utilization, March 2016
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- Figure 43: Soup category cross-utilization, March 2016 (continued)
Repertoire Analysis
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- Consumers are buying a variety of different soups
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- Figure 44: Repertoire analysis, types of soup purchased, March 2016
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- Figure 45: Repertoire analysis, by select demographics, March 2016
- Soup-type “loyalists”
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- Figure 46: Soup category purchases, by soup-type loyalists, March 2016
Soup Consumption Frequency
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- Over a quarter of consumers purchase soup at least weekly
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- Figure 47: Soup consumption frequency, March 2016
Soup Place of Purchase
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- Majority of soup is purchased at supermarkets
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- Figure 48: Typical source of packaged soup, March 2016
- Opportunity for frozen soup in club and natural stores
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- Figure 49: Typical source of packaged soup, by frozen soup users, March 2016
Soup-type Association
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- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Strengths and weaknesses within the soup category
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- Figure 50: Correspondence analysis – Soup-type association, March 2016
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- Figure 51: Soup-type association, March 2016
Soup Attitudes
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- Soup is purchased for its convenience and value
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- Figure 52: Soup attitudes, March 2016
- Men want indulgent soups while women care about health
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- Figure 53: Soup attitudes, by gender and age, March 2016
- Reach the youngest consumers through packaging innovations
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- Figure 54: Soup attitudes, by generation, March 2016
- Urbanites are most open to product innovations
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- Figure 55: Soup attitudes, by area, March 2016
Packaged Soup Issues
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- Sodium levels are a top concern
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- Figure 56: Packaged soup issues, by soup users and non-users, March 2016
- Women are most concerned with sodium levels
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- Figure 57: Packaged soup issues, by gender and age, March 2016
- Hispanics want more packaging options
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- Figure 58: Packaged soup issues, by Hispanics, March 2016
CHAID Analysis – Soup as a Snack
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- Methodology
- Young, RTE soup buyers are the target market for “soup as a snack”
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- Figure 59: Soup attitudes – CHAID – Table output, March 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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- Figure 60: Soup attitudes – CHAID – Table output, March 2016
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales of soup, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
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- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-serve wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of condensed wet soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of dry soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of wet broth/stock, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated fresh soup/frozen soup, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 75: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices 2011-16
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- Figure 76: Total US retail sales of soup, by channel, at current prices 2014 and 2016
- Figure 77: US supermarket sales of soup, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 78: US sales of soup through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 79: Statement agreement, “I really enjoy cooking”, Fall 2010-Fall 2015
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- Figure 80: Statement agreement, “I prefer to eat foods without artificial additives”, Fall 2010-Fall 2015
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