Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- In 2015, it’s estimated that Blacks will spend $61 billion on groceries
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- Figure 1: Expenditures of Black households on groceries* and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- The issues
- Kids weigh in on what goes into the cart, but parents have the final say
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- Figure 2: The role kids and family members play in grocery decisions, September 2015
- Blacks are loyal to certain brands and stores; so what will it take to get others on their list?
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- Figure 3: Brand trust among Blacks – Net three for each statement, September 2015
- Walmart is the top store Blacks shop, but it’s still not strongly associated with food
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- Figure 4: Correspondence analysis – Grocery shopping location and product category, September 2015
- Blacks enjoy grocery shopping; they shop a variety of stores and often
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- Figure 5: Frequency of shopping grocery retailers – Once a month or more versus once a week or more, September 2015
- The opportunities
- Opportunity for smaller pop-up stores, fresh expansions
- Engage Blacks; give them something to remember you by
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- Figure 6: Brand loyalty drivers, September 2015
- Word of mouth is one thing; gifting favorite brands is another
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- Figure 7: Brand advocacy among Blacks, September 2015
- Smart shopping tools, experiential displays and departments set retailers apart
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- Figure 8: Impact of in-store sampling on Blacks when shopping for groceries, September 2015
- Figure 9: Impact of sales and buying in bulk for savings among Blacks when shopping for groceries, September 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Blacks spend $61 billion on groceries; food and drink make up the bulk
- Coupons, expansions, and sampling . . . Oh my!
- Things are looking up for Black consumers, retailers expected to benefit
Market Size and Forecast
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- Blacks spend $61 billion on groceries
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- Figure 10: Expenditures by Black households on groceries* and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
- Recession recovery and category changes made sales soar in 2011-12
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- Figure 11: Expenditures and forecast by Black households on groceries*, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Food and drink segment represents 69% of sales in the category
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- Figure 12: Expenditures by Black households on groceries*, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Food and drink segment has grown by 20% in the last five years
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- Figure 13: Expenditures by Black households on food and drink* and fan chart forecast of segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Tempered growth forecast for general merchandise, household supplies
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- Figure 14: Expenditures by Black households on general merchandise* and fan chart forecast of segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Health and beauty care products
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- Figure 15: Expenditures by Black households on health and beauty* and fan chart forecast of segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Perspective
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- Coupon usage is up, digital credited
- Mass merchandisers gaining momentum, but at what sacrifice?
- Store brands can stake a claim, experiences are key
Market Factors
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- Greater number of Black households means more grocery carts
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- Figure 16: Number of households in US, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, January 2015
- Consumer confidence at lowest point in a year, Blacks remain optimistic
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- Figure 17: Consumer confidence among the total US population, January 2007-September 2015
- Frequent shopping promotes impulse purchases
- Unemployment rates for Blacks near prerecession levels
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- Figure 18: Labor force participation and unemployment rates among the Black population (seasonally adjusted), January 2007-June 2015
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Brand extensions, expansions and packaging design are appealing
- Online shopping, natural grocery stores, private label struggling
- The future is sensorial, entertaining, and smarter
What’s Working?
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- Brand extensions
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- Figure 19: Examples of brand extensions, 2015
- Packaging
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- Figure 20: Examples of flexible and pouch packaging, 2015
- Store expansion
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- Figure 21: Distribution of expenditures for food for off-premise consumption among the total population – Food and drink retailing only, 2015 (est)
- Figure 22: Distribution of expenditures for food for off-premise consumption among the total population – Food and drink retailing only, 2005-15
What’s Struggling?
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- Shopping online for groceries and internet grocery retailers
- Natural grocery stores
- Store brands and private label
What’s Next?
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- Seeing is believing; sensorial packaging
- More smart grocery tools
- Grocery shopping as a social outing
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Women often make decisions alone, but they aim to please
- One-stop shopping is attractive, but old habits die hard
- Low prices are fine, but more is needed to attract Blacks
- Understanding what’s in their cart gives a glimpse of who they are
Grocery Shopping Stakeholders
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- Women more likely than men to make decisions on grocery shopping
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- Figure 23: Who is responsible for purchasing groceries in Black households, by gender, September 2015
- Married couples value their spouse’s opinion on what to buy
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- Figure 24: Who is responsible for purchasing groceries in Black households, by marital status, September 2015
- Special request welcomed in some Black households
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- Figure 25: Family influence in grocery shopping decisions, September 2015
- Kids’ preferences influence what goes into the cart
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- Figure 26: Children’s influence in grocery shopping decisions, September 2015
Grocery Shopping Destinations
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- Mass merchandisers more associated with nonfood items than food
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- Figure 27: Correspondence analysis – Grocery shopping location, September 2015
- Walmart is the leader among mass merchandisers, competing with grocers
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- Figure 28: Grocery shopping location, by category, September 2015
Frequency of Shopping by Location
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- Blacks shop supermarkets more frequently than any other store
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- Figure 29: Frequency of shopping for groceries at supermarkets, September 2015
- Internet grocery retailers struggle among Blacks
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- Figure 30: Frequency of shopping for groceries at nontraditional or specialty stores, September 2015
- Significant differences in where Blacks shop each week by region
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- Figure 31: Frequency of shopping for groceries – Once a week or more, by location, by region, September 2015
- Demographics impact frequency of visits on a monthly basis
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- Figure 32: Frequency of shopping for groceries – Once a month or more, by select locations, by gender, September 2015
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- Figure 33: Frequency of shopping for groceries – Once a month or more, by select locations, by age, September 2015
Grocery Chain Leaders by Region
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- Club stores among the top five stores Blacks shop for groceries
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- Figure 34: Top five stores Blacks shop at for groceries, by region, April 2014-June 2015
- Value-priced stores give Walmart a run for the money, especially among Blacks
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- Figure 35: Top five stores Blacks shop at for groceries – Index to total, by region, April 2014-June 2015
Impact of Promotions
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- Promotions draw Blacks, sampling works for some
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- Figure 36: Impact of in-store sampling and promotions on Blacks when shopping for groceries, September 2015
- Sales influence some, buying in bulk is where the real savings are
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- Figure 37: Impact of in-store sampling and promotions on Blacks when shopping for groceries, September 2015
- Demographic impact perception of marketing influences
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- Figure 38: Influence of coupons and bulk sizes when shopping for groceries – Net three for each statement, by key demographics, September 2015
- Price doesn’t trump brand names, will shop around for best deal
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- Figure 39: Impact of price on driving Blacks to purchase – Index to total, February 2014-March 2015
Grocery Shopping Engagement
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- Blacks love to grocery shop; they shop often, alone, and at many stores
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- Figure 40: Grocery shopping patterns and behaviors, September 2015
- Blacks take their time and shop as an escape, for inspiration, and to jog memory
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- Figure 41: Shopping engagement and enjoyment – Index to total, February 2014-March 2015
- Blacks go above and beyond to promote brands they love
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- Figure 42: Brand advocacy among Blacks, September 2015
Attitudes toward Food and Nutrition
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- Blacks quick to try products, but still struggle with proper diet and nutrition
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- Figure 43: Black consumers’ attitudes toward diet and nutrition – Index to total population, February 2014-March 2015
- Blacks not drawn to natural and organic foods, taste may be barrier
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- Figure 44: Black consumers’ attitudes toward organic and natural foods – Index to total, February 2014-March 2015
What’s in Their Cart
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- Blacks more likely than others to eat margarine
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- Figure 45: Top dairy products Black households eat – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Iced tea, juice, and nondiet carbonated beverages are must-haves
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- Figure 46: Top beverages Black households drink – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Blacks love sweets, frozen desserts at top of list
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- Figure 47: Top snacks and desserts Black households eat/use – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Blacks twice as likely to buy turkey parts, a key ingredient in soul food
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- Figure 48: Top meats Black households eat – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Blacks more likely to buy frozen foods, convenience a key driver
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- Figure 49: Top frozen foods Black households eat – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Bagged salad is popular among Blacks, saves prep time
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- Figure 50: Produce, bagged/packaged salad consumption among Black households, April 2014-June 2015
- Blacks more likely to eat hot breakfast cereal; oatmeal and grits likely in cart
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- Figure 51: Leading cold cereal brands among Blacks – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 52: Consumption of bread, seasoning, and dry goods among Black households – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Pork and beans a staple on Blacks’ shelves, more so than total population
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- Figure 53: Top canned good products Black households eat – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Blacks over index on gravy and sauces compared to total population
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- Figure 54: Top sauces and condiments Black households eat – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
Brand Loyalty Drivers
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- Blacks loyal to brand names, longevity in the market gains trust
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- Figure 55: Brand trust among Blacks – Net three for each statement, September 2015
- Blacks have no problem finding brands they love, they shop around to find them
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- Figure 56: Accessibility to preferred brands, September 2015
- Good customer service, integrity, open communication gains repeat store visits
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- Figure 57: Brand loyalty drivers, September 2015
Appendix: Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Expenditure data
- Definition
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix: The Market
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- Figure 58: Expenditures by Black households on groceries*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 59: Expenditures by Black households on groceries*, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 60: Expenditures by Black households on food and drink*, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 61: Expenditures by Black households on food and drink*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 62: Expenditures by Black households on general merchandise/household supplies*, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 63: Expenditures by Black households on general merchandise/household supplies*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 64: Expenditures by Black households on health and beauty care products*, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 65: Expenditures by Black households on health and beauty care products*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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Appendix: Consumer
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- What’s in their cart
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- Figure 66: Kinds of condiments and seasonings used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 67: Kinds of baking ingredients used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 68: Kinds of dairy products used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 69: Kinds of frozen foods used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 70: Types of canned goods household uses used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 71: Types of bread and pastries used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 72: Dry goods, shelf-stable and oil used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
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- Figure 73: Fresh or refrigerated produce used – Index to total, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014-June 2015
- Attitudes toward food
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- Figure 74: Black consumers’ attitudes toward food – Index to total, April 2014-June 2015
- Attitudes toward shopping
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- Figure 75: Black consumers’ attitudes toward shopping – Index to total, February 2014 -March 2015
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