Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Decline in red meat consumption benefits poultry sales
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- Figure 1: Choice beef values and spreads and the all-fresh retail value, quarterly averages
- Natural chicken brands see growth
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- Figure 2: Important factors - Any rank, by types purchased, chicken, June 2015
- Turkey also enjoys growth
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- Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of turkey, at current prices, 2010-20
- The opportunities
- Millennials offer chance to grow store brand poultry
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- Figure 4: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
- Premium poultry is an unmet need
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- Figure 5: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, June 2015
- Poultry brands can benefit by being more transparent
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- Figure 6: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Red meat decline, lower poultry prices help drive poultry sales
- Avian flu has mixed effects on chicken, turkey
- Convenience factor leads to greater sales of chicken parts
Market Size and Forecast
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- Lower prices, declining red meat consumption continue poultry’s boost
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Convenience and more cooking options to grow chicken parts sales
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken parts, at current prices, 2010-20
- Whole chickens see smallest sales rise
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole chickens, at current prices, 2010-20
- Other poultry sees largest growth thanks to turkey
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2010-20
Market Factors
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- Increased red meat prices to boost poultry sales
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- Figure 12: Choice beef values and spreads and the all-fresh retail value, quarterly averages
- Concerns about red meat and health helps poultry
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- Figure 13: Age-adjusted geometric mean triglyceride and mean LDL cholesterol levels by sex and race/ethnicity among adults aged 20 years or older, 1988-2010
- Avian flu drives down broiler costs
- While avian flu negatively impacts turkey supply
Key Players
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- Tyson, private label hold largest shares in poultry
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- Figure 14: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Tyson suffers chicken losses, while GNP sees increases
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- Figure 15: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Hormel, Cargill enjoy turkey sales growth
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- Figure 16: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated turkey, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
- Tyson dominates other poultry with Cornish hens
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- Figure 17: MULO sales of frozen and refrigerated other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Chicken brands winning with natural products
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- Figure 18: Harvestland frozen/refrigerated chicken
- Versatility message boosts turkey sales
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- Figure 19: Jennie-O Taco Ride commercial
- Figure 20: Butterball Turketarian commercial
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- Figure 21: Butterball Everyday turkey products
What’s Next?
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- More chicken to go antibiotic-free, turkey to follow
- Turkey brands to continue growth through Millennials
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Chicken seen as an everyday protein; turkey a red meat substitute
- Millennials willing to pay more for value-added poultry
- Poultry transparency important to Millennials, Hispanics
- Millennial parents more likely to purchase natural, organic poultry
The Chicken Buyer
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- Chicken seen as an everyday protein
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- Figure 22: Types purchased, chicken, June 2015
- Chicken seen as a versatile, creative option
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- Figure 23: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
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- Figure 24: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, June 2015
- Chicken preferred as value-priced, healthy option
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- Figure 25: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
- Brand is most important factor in chicken purchase; natural/free-from also key
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- Figure 26: Important factors - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
The Turkey Buyer
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- Turkey seen as special occasion meat, chicken alternative
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- Figure 27: Types purchased, turkey, June 2015
- Turkey’s versatility inspires creativity
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- Figure 28: Poultry purchasing reasons - Any rank, by types purchased, June 2015
- Poultry safety, transparency is important; buyers willing to pay more for turkey “upgrades”
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- Figure 29: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, any agree, June 2015
The Other Poultry Buyer
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- Other poultry is a specialty purchase
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- Figure 30: Types Purchased, other poultry, June 2015
- Other poultry seen as premium indulgence
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- Figure 31: Poultry attitudes, by types purchased, any agree, June 2015
Millennials and Poultry
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- Millennials more likely than Boomers to purchase turkey
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- Figure 32: Important factors - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
- Millennials want safe, transparent poultry
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- Figure 33: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
- Store brand poultry appeals to Millennials
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- Figure 34: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
- Older Millennials most likely to pay more for BFY, premium poultry
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- Figure 35: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
- Convenient packaging a plus with Millennials
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- Figure 36: Important factors - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
Hispanics and Poultry
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- Hispanic Millennials more likely to purchase turkey
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- Figure 37: Any purchase of turkey (fresh or frozen), by demographics, June 2015
- Hispanic Millennials particularly want to learn more about their poultry
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- Figure 38: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
- Hispanic Millennials willing to pay for BFY, premium poultry
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- Figure 39: Poultry attitudes, by demographics, any agree, June 2015
- Hispanics enjoy poultry variety
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- Figure 40: Reasons for purchasing poultry - Any rank, by demographics, June 2015
Parents and Poultry
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- Millennial parents want natural, organic poultry
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- Figure 41: Desirable characteristics, by demographics, June 2015
Baby Boomers and Poultry
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- Low price important to Boomers purchasing poultry
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- Figure 42: Desirable characteristics, by demographics, June 2015
- Boomers purchase poultry for variety, versatility reasons
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- Figure 43: Reasons for eating less red meat, by demographics, December 2014
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 44: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 45: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken parts, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole chickens, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 49: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Figure 50: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks July 2013-July 2015
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- Figure 51: Natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry, by type, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/14/13 and 7/12/15
- Figure 52: Share of natural supermarket sales of frozen and refrigerated poultry making specific label claims, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/14/13 and 7/12/15
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 53: Household usage, by type – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, used in the last 6 months, January 2007-December 2014
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- Figure 54: Household usage, by type – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, used in the last 7 days, January 2007-December 2014
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- Figure 55: Household usage, by type, by demographic – Fresh chicken, frozen chicken, fresh turkey, frozen turkey, fresh/frozen Cornish game hen used in the last 7 days, November 2013-December 2014
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