Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Sales decline in 2014
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- Figure 1: Market size and forecast of the dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by value, 2009-19
- The consumer
- Chilled cow’s milk dominates the market
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- Figure 2: Types of milk/milk drinks used in the last three months, February 2015
- Cold cereal is the most popular use for milk
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- Figure 3: Milk/milk drinks usage occasions in the last three months, February 2015
- Cream is most popular as a dessert/cake accompaniment
- 51% of consumers would pay more than £1 for a four-pint bottle of milk
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- Figure 4: How much milk users would pay for a four-pint bottle of milk, February 2015
- Fortified milks popular with one in four milk users
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- Figure 5: Interest in selected milk/milk drink and cream product concepts, February 2015
- Filtered milk fails to resonate with consumers
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- Figure 6: Agreement with selected attitudes towards milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2015
- Companies, Brands and Innovation
- White milk market dominated by own-label
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- Figure 7: Leading manufacturers’ shares of the UK white milk market^ by value, 2014/15*
- Dairy alternatives and lactose-free milks in fast growth
- Arla launches Big Milk aimed at kids
Issues and Insights
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- Time to launch a ‘fair pay’ standard for British milk?
- The facts
- The implications
- Placing standard white milk under retailers’ economy ranges could help them build category value
- The facts
- The implications
- Flavoured milks must combat health concerns to stem decline
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Milk price wars continue to erode fresh white milk value
- Total market value forecast to continue its decline
- Whole milk sees best volume performance
- Cow’s milk alternatives buoy fresh white milk volumes
- Farmgate milk prices fall in 2014
- EU milk production quotas abolished from spring 2015
- Products which milk is used with, such as breakfast cereals, see sales declines
Market Size and Forecast
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- White milk falls back into value decline following grocer price cuts
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- Figure 8: UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by value, by main segment, 2009-19
- Figure 9: UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by volume, by main segment, 2009-19
- Flat white milk volumes
- Total market volume forecast to climb against falling value
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- Figure 10: UK retail sales and forecast of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by value, 2009-19
- Figure 11: UK retail sales and forecast of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by volume, 2009-19
Segment Performance
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- White milk
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- Figure 12: Retail sales of white milk (fresh and long-life), by type, by value and volume, 2013 and 2014
- Whole milk sees greatest increase in volume
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- Figure 13: Retail sales of fresh white milk, by type, by value and volume, 2013 and 2014
- Flavoured milk
- Cream
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- Figure 14: Retail sales of cream, by type, by value and volume, 2013 and 2014
Market Drivers
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- Farmgate milk prices fall sharply in 2014
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- Figure 15: UK farmgate milk prices, 2010-14
- Uncertainty over impact of abolition of EU milk quotas on UK milk market
- Little growth from products typically eaten/drunk with milk
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Own-label accounts for three quarters of white milk market value
- Müller Wiseman set to acquire Dairy Crest’s Dairies division
- FRijj launches lower-sugar variants
- Own-label accounts for 70% of cream market value
- Adspend on milk, milk drinks and cream up 40% year-on-year
- Booths rebrands its own-label milk ‘Fair Milk’
- Global launches include milk-based energy drinks and ‘ultra-filtered’ milk
- Lighter cream and cream alternative launches continue apace
Market Share
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- Cream
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- Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales in the UK cream market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Figure 17: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK cream market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Flavoured milk
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- Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales in the UK flavoured milk market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Figure 19: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK flavoured milk market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- FRijj remains market leader in flavoured milk
- Müller set to re-enter UK flavoured milk market through purchase of FRijj
- All change for Arla in flavoured milk
- White milk
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- Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales in the UK white milk^ market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Figure 21: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the UK white milk^ market, by value, 2013/14 and 2014/15
- Dairy Crest sells its liquid milk business to Müller Wiseman…
- …as Graham’s The Family Dairy becomes a more sizeable competitor
- Alpro sees sales surge after wave of NPD
- Cravendale struggles
- But increased Morrisons supply and the launch of Big Milk should boost Arla’s milk sales
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- 2014 adspend up 40% year on year
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- Figure 22: Share of adspend on milk, milk, drinks and cream, by category, 2011-14
- Arla is the biggest spender on ad space in the market in 2014
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- Figure 23: Top 10 advertisers in the dairy drinks, milk and cream market, 2011-14
- Arla asks consumers to support farmers by buying its products
- Retailers move to promote the ‘fairness’ of their milk procurement in 2015
- Weetabix spends big on launch campaign
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- Figure 24: Top 10 brands, by adspend in the dairy drinks, milk and cream market, 2011-14
- Alpro more than doubles adspend in 2014
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- White milk accounts for just a third of new launches in the market
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- Figure 25: New product launches within the UK dairy drinks and milk market, by sub-category, 2011-14
- Arla leads new launches in 2014
- Kids get new milk drinks with added convenience
- Growth in allergen claims reflects strong growth in dairy alternatives
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- Figure 26: New product launches within the UK dairy drinks and milk and market, by top 10 claims, 2011-14
- Coca-Cola launches new premium milk in US
- Booths rebrands its own-label milk as Fair Milk
- Healthier creams and cream alternative launches continue apace
- Retailers use flavoured creams as a differentiator during seasonal events
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Penetration of milk and milk drinks stands at 94%
- Cold cereal is the most popular use for milk
- Usage of cream/buttermilk stands at 60%
- Half of standard milk users willing to pay over £1 for a four pint bottle
- Fortified milks spark interest amongst a significant minority of users
- Flavoured milk with a hint of flavour could help combat sugar concerns
- Most consumers don’t see filtered milk’s main selling point
- Cream faces competition from yogurt
Usage of Milk/Milk Drinks and Cream
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- Usage of milk/milk drinks
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- Figure 27: Types of milk/milk drinks used in the last three months, February 2015
- More than nine in 10 Brits drink milk
- Semi-skimmed milk is most widely used milk type
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- Figure 28: Types of milk/milk drinks used in the last three months, February 2015
- Usage of cream and buttermilk
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- Figure 29: Usage of cream and buttermilk in the last three months, February 2015
Usage Occasions for Milk/Milk Drinks and Cream
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- With cold cereal is most popular usage occasion for milk/milk drinks
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- Figure 30: Milk/milk drinks usage occasions in the last three months, February 2015
- Mixed fortunes of hot drinks could impact milk usage in different ways
- Cream is most popular as a dessert/cake accompaniment
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- Figure 31: Cream usage occasions in the last three months, February 2015
How Much Consumers are Prepared to Pay for Milk
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- Figure 32: How much milk users would pay for a four-pint bottle of milk, February 2015
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Interest in Milk/Milk Drink and Cream Product Concepts
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- Figure 33: Interest in selected milk/milk drink and cream product concepts, February 2015
- High interest in functional milks/milk drinks
- One in four interested in milk from cows fed only on grass and hay
- Scope for chocolate confectionery brands to extend into fresh creams
- Milk with a hint of flavour appeals to one in five
- Milk with cream sitting on top appeals to one in six
- Scope for alcohol brands to extend into milk category
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Attitudes towards Milk/Milk Drinks and Cream
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- Figure 34: Agreement with selected attitudes towards milk, milk drinks and cream, February 2015
- Two thirds of consumers see yogurt as healthier than cream
- Filtered milk brands must do more to educate consumers
- 49% of consumers agree supermarkets should sell economy fresh milk
- Milk could learn from single-variety teas and wines
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 35: New product launches within the UK dairy drinks and milk market, by branded/own-label share, 2011-14
- Figure 36: New product launches within the UK dairy drinks and milk and market, by top 10 ultimate owner companies, 2011-14
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Total market
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- Figure 37: UK retail sales of dairy drinks, milk and cream, by value and volume, 2009-19
- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by value, 2014-19
- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK dairy drinks, milk and cream market, by volume, 2014-19
- White milk
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- Figure 40: UK retail sales of white milk (fresh and long-life), by value and volume, 2009-19
- Figure 41: UK retail sales and forecast of white milk (fresh and long-life), by value, 2009-19
- Figure 42: UK retail sales and forecast of white milk (fresh and long-life), by volume, 2009-19
- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK white milk (fresh and long-life) market, by value, 2014-19
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- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK white milk (fresh and long-life) market, by volume, 2014-19
- Flavoured milk
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- Figure 45: UK retail sales of flavoured milk, by value and volume, 2009-19
- Figure 46: UK retail sales and forecast of flavoured milk, by value, 2009-19
- Figure 47: UK retail sales and forecast of flavoured milk, by volume, 2009-19
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK flavoured milk market, by value, 2014-19
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- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK flavoured milk market, by volume, 2014-19
- Cream
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- Figure 50: UK retail sales of cream, by value and volume, 2009-19
- Figure 51: UK retail sales and forecast of cream, by value, 2009-19
- Figure 52: UK retail sales and forecast of cream, by volume, 2009-19
- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK cream market, by value, 2014-19
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- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK cream market, by volume, 2014-19
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