Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- Flat category in 2014
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Cake/pie mixes lead segments; most segments decline
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- Figure 2: MULO sales of baking and dessert mixes at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2014
- Key players
- The consumer
- Respondents most apt to use pancake, cake, and brownie mix once a month or more
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- Figure 3: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, June 2014
- Respondents very likely to be baking from scratch, using RTE items the same amount or more than last year
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- Figure 4: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – any same amount or more often, June 2014
- Most use mixes for taste and convenience
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- Figure 5: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
- Most say preferred brand is important; premium, BFY attributes also important
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- Figure 6: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What consumer groups are most likely to use baking/dessert mixes?
- Insight: Brands must target specific demographics
- Can mix brands overcome perceptions of unhealthiness?
- Insight: BFY versions will help overcome unhealthy perceptions
- How can mix brands compete with RTE, packaged brands?
- Insight: Mix brands should focus on freshness, flavor
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Minimize Me
- Trend: Non-Standard Society
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
- Flat sales as consumers bake at home less
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Health considerations limit usage
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- Figure 10: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, June 2014
- Obesity epidemic likely factors into declining sales
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- Figure 11: Percentage of men aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08, 2009-12
- Figure 12: Percentage of women aged 20 or older who are obese, 2001-04, 2005-08, 2009-12
- Recovering consumer confidence spurs more dining out, packaged purchases
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- Figure 13: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2004-14
- Figure 14: U.S. unemployment rate, 2004-14
- Presence of children drives usage; parents prefer natural, low sugar/fat
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- Figure 15: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by presence of children in household, June 2014
- Moms likely do most of the household baking
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- Figure 16: Household usage of store-bought dry pancake and waffle, cake (not cake flour), brownie, and other mixes (including bread mixes), by moms with children in household, January 2013-March 2014
Competitive Context
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- Packaged pudding, gelatin, baked goods pose a threat for mix brands
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- Figure 17: Household consumption of packaged pudding; flavored gelatin desserts; snack cakes (ready-to-eat); and frozen dessert cakes, muffins, pastries, and pies, by age, January 2013-March 2014
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- Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of prepared cakes and pies, at current prices, 2009-19
- Less-affluent respondents most likely to eat RTE snack cakes and frozen baked goods
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- Figure 19: Household consumption of snack cakes (ready-to-eat), by household income, January 2013-March 2014
- Packaged vs. mix product household consumption frequency
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- Figure 20: Number of individual servings of snacks cakes (ready-to-eat) eaten in household last 30 days, January 2013-March 2014
- In-store bakeries take sales away from mix brands
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- Figure 21: Total US sales and forecast of in-store bakery items, at current prices, 2009-19
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Most segments decline
- Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment
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- Figure 22: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Sales and forecast of cake/pie mixes
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- Figure 23: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake/pie mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of pudding/gelatin mixes
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- Figure 24: Total US retail sales and forecast of pudding/gelatin mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes
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- Figure 25: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of bread/muffin mixes
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- Figure 26: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread/muffin mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of brownie mixes
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- Figure 27: Total US retail sales and forecast of brownie mixes, at current prices, 2009-19
- Sales and forecast of other mixes
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- Figure 28: Total US retail sales and forecast of other mixes*, at current prices, 2009-19
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Supermarkets comprise 67% share of baking/dessert mix sales
- Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel
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- Figure 29: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
- Supermarkets lead but decline as mass merchandisers offer better value
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- Figure 30: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-14
- Other channels register solid growth between 2011 and 2014
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- Figure 31: U.S. other channel sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2009-14
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Three leading companies all decline through MULO channels in 2014
- Manufacturer sales of baking and dessert mixes
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of baking and dessert mixes at retail, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks, 2013 and 2014
Brand Share – Cake/Pie Mixes
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- Key points
- Betty Crocker, Pillsbury decline; Duncan Hines increases 3.6%
- Manufacturer sales of cake/pie mixes
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- Figure 33: MULO sales of cake/pie mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014
- Brand loyalty highest for Betty Crocker, but private label rivals all brands
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- Figure 34: Key purchase measures for top cake/cupcake/pie mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Brand Share – Pudding/Gelatin Mixes
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- Key points
- JELL-O leads segment by a wide margin but declines more than 3%
- Manufacturer sales of pudding/gelatin mixes
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- Figure 35: MULO sales of pudding/gelatin mixes, 2013 and 2014
- JELL-O has most brand loyalty but private label loyalty also high
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- Figure 36: Key purchase measures for top pudding/pie filling/mousse mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Brand Share – Pancake/Waffle/French Toast Mixes
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- Key points
- Krusteaz, Hungry Jack grow as other brands flatline or decline
- Manufacturer sales of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes
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- Figure 37: MULO sales of pancake/waffle/French toast mixes, 2013 and 2014
Brand Share – Brownie Mixes
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- Key points
- All leading MULO brands decline
- Manufacturer sales of brownie mixes
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- Figure 38: MULO sales of brownie mixes, 2013 and 2014
- Despite not being a leading brand, Ghirardelli maintains most brand loyalty
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- Figure 39: Key purchase measures for top brownie mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Brand Share – Bread/Muffin Mixes
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- Key points
- Flat to declining sales for most brands
- Manufacturer sales of bread/muffin mixes
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- Figure 40: MULO sales of bread/muffin mixes, 2013 and 2014
- Jiffy experiences highest level of brand loyalty
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- Figure 41: Key purchase measures for top bread/muffin mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Brand Share – Other Mixes
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- Key points
- Betty Crocker comprises more than half of the segment but declines 5%
- Manufacturer sales of other mixes
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- Figure 42: MULO sales of other mixes, 2013 and 2014
- Buyers most loyal to Betty Crocker baking mixes
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- Figure 43: Key purchase measures for top other mix brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
Innovations and Innovators
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- Environmentally friendly packaging, ease of use, lead claims
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- Figure 44: Top 10 baking ingredients and mixes claims, by percentage of total claims, 2009-13
- Ease of use likely to attract consumers looking for convenience
- Premium ingredients important to a majority of buyers
- Gluten-free claims increase significantly between 2012 and 2013
Marketing Strategies
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- Overview of the brand landscape
- Theme: Brands use social media to foster community of home bakers
- Brand example: Betty Crocker
- Brand example: Duncan Hines
- Brand example: Pillsbury
Types of Baking and Dessert Mixes Used
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- Key points
- Most use pancake mix frequently
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- Figure 45: Types of baking/dessert mixes used, June 2014
- 25-34 most likely to use monthly or more; monthly usage declines with age
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- Figure 46: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by age, June 2014
- Less than $25K report least likelihood to use monthly or more
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- Figure 47: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – Once a month or more, by household income, June 2014
Usage and Purchases of Baked Goods/Mixes Compared to a Year Ago
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- Key points
- Respondents most likely to be baking from scratch more than a year ago
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- Figure 48: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago, June 2014
- 18-44 most likely to report more/same usage compared to a year ago
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- Figure 49: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by age, June 2014
- Presence of children means more baking, baked good usage
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- Figure 50: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Reasons for Using Baking/Dessert Mixes
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- Key points
- Flavor, convenience leading reasons for using baking/dessert mixes
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- Figure 51: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by gender, June 2014
- 55+ most focused on convenience
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- Figure 52: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
- Households with kids most likely to use mixes because they like to bake
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- Figure 53: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Reasons for Buying Baking/Dessert Mixes
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- Key points
- Respondents most likely to buy favorite flavor, preferred brand
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- Figure 54: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
- Households with kids most likely to buy for special occasions
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- Figure 55: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Important Factors in Buying Baking/Dessert Mixes
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- Key points
- Preferred brand, occasion suitability most important purchase factors
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- Figure 56: Important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, June 2014
- 25-34 most likely to cite healthy attributes as important
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- Figure 57: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
- Households with kids most likely to cite numerous attributes as important
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- Figure 58: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by presence of children in household, June 2014
Reasons for Not Using Baking/Dessert Mixes or Using Them Less Frequently
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- Key points
- Three in 10 are cutting back on baked goods/desserts
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- Figure 59: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, by age, June 2014
Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Blacks, Asians, Hispanics most likely to use mixes monthly or more
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- Figure 60: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Hispanics most likely to be using same amount/more competing products
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- Figure 61: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
- Blacks, Hispanics most apt to say premium ingredients are important
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- Figure 62: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
Appendix – Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Types of baking and dessert mixes used
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- Figure 63: Types of baking/dessert mixes used – once a month or more, by gender, June 2014
- Brands used
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- Figure 64: Brands of dry pancake and waffle mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
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- Figure 65: Brands of dry cake mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
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- Figure 66: Brands of dry brownie mixes used in household, January 2013-March 2014
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- Figure 67: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household, January 2013-March 2014
- Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago
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- Figure 68: Usage and purchases of baked goods/mixes compared to a year ago – same amount or more often, by household income, June 2014
- Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes
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- Figure 69: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by age, June 2014
- Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes
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- Figure 70: Reasons for buying baking/dessert mixes, by household income, June 2014
- Important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes
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- Figure 71: Any important factors in buying baking/dessert mixes, by household income, June 2014
- Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using them less frequently
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- Figure 72: Reasons for not using baking/dessert mixes or using less frequently, by gender, June 2014
- Race/Hispanic origin
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- Figure 73: Reasons for using baking/dessert mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, June 2014
Appendix – Information Resources Inc. Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix – Trade Associations
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