Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Cookie market surpasses $7 billion with second consecutive growth year
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- Figure 1: Total U.S. retail sales of market, at current prices, 2007-12
- Cookie market forecast to grow to $8.3 billion in 2017
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- Figure 2: Total U.S. retail sales and fan chart of cookie and cookie bars market, at current prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 3: Sales of cookies and cookie bars, segmented by type, 2010 and 2012
- Market factors
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- Figure 4: Sales of market, by channel, 2010 and 2012
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- Figure 5: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2012
- The Consumer
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- Figure 6: Cookie and cookie bar consumption, by gender, December 2012
- Nearly half of respondents keep a mostly healthy diet
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- Figure 7: Buying attitudes toward cookies, by household income, December 2012
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- Figure 8: Attitudes toward cookies and cookie bars, December 2012
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- Figure 9: Attitudes toward cookies and cookie bars, December 2012
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- Figure 10: Shopping behavior, by gender, December 2012
- Branding is a powerful force in cookie market
- Private label cookie buyers looking for more options
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- Are healthy cookies really healthy?
- What are consumers looking for when leaving room for indulgences?
- When marketing health attributes of cookies, how far is too far?
Insights and Opportunities
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- Daddy bloggers surprising counterparts to mommy bloggers
- Smart coupons viable for supermarkets
- Cookies for grown-ups provide niche market
Trend Applications
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- Trend: Premiumization and Indulgence
- Trend: Extend My Brand
- Future Trend: Generation Next
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Cookie market surpasses $7 billion with second consecutive growth year
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- Figure 11: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2007-17
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- Figure 12: Total U.S. retail sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2007-17
- Fan chart forecast
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- Figure 13: Total Market sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2005-15
Market Drivers
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- Key points
- Discretionary spending under pressure as payroll tax rises
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- Figure 14: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Obesity rates related to shift toward healthier food options
- Surge in Hispanic population impacts market
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- Figure 15: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
- Rising food prices would lessen cookie demand
- Aging population indicates changing cookie tastes
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- Figure 16: Population, by age, 2007-17
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- Figure 17: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
Competitive Context
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- Other snack foods often used to provide indulgence
- Energy bars and other nutritional snacks growing quickly
- Cereal and snack bars not just for breakfast
- Girl Scout Cookies would rank third largest company in sales
- Baking at home popular due to perceptions of better taste
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Standard cookies account for more than half of overall market
- Healthy cookies now second-best selling branded segment
- Private label sales stagnant, indicating lost opportunity
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- Figure 18: Sales of cookies and cookie bars, segmented by type, 2010 and 2012
Segment Performance – Standard Cookies
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- Key points
- Sales of standard cookies reach nearly $4 billion
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- Figure 19: Sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance – Healthy Cookies
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- Key points
- Healthy cookie sales rise nearly 20% since 2010, now more than $900 million
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- Figure 20: Sales and forecast of healthy cookies, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance – Premium Cookies
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- Key points
- Premium cookies continue steady decline
- Opportunity to market premium cookies as another healthy alternative
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- Figure 21: Sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance – Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Cookie bar sales grow nearly 20% with introduction of healthier products
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- Figure 22: Sales and forecast of cookie bars, at current prices, 2007-17
Segment Performance – Private Label Cookies
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- Key points
- Private label cookie sales slowed considerably following recession
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- Figure 23: Sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2007-17
Retail Channels
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- Key points
- Majority of cookies sold in supermarkets yet share declining slightly
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- Figure 24: Sales of market, by channel, 2010 and 2012
Retail Channels – Supermarkets
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- Key points
- Cookie sales growth at supermarkets relatively flat
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- Figure 25: Supermarket sales of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels – Drug stores
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- Key points
- Cookie bars might provide drug store opportunity
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- Figure 26: Drug store sales of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, 2007-12
Retail Channels – Other Stores
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- Key points
- Other store sales of cookies pass $3 billion, 20% increase since 2007
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- Figure 27: Other store sales of cookies and cookie bars, at current prices, 2007-12
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Kraft Foods (now Mondelez) expands upon its market dominance
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share – Standard Cookies
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- Key points
- OREO’s 100th Birthday push helps Kraft Foods continue segment dominance
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of standard cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share – Healthy Cookies
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- Key points
- Newtons brand succeeds for Kraft Foods in Healthy Cookie segment
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of healthy cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share – Premium Cookies
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- Key points
- Despite sales decline, Pepperidge controls segment
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2011 and 2012
Brand Share – Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Cookie bars fastest growing segment
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of cookie bars, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2011 and 2012
Innovations and Innovators
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- Limited time and seasonal offerings strengthen brand presence
- Standard Cookies
- Healthy Cookies
- Premium Cookies
- Cookie Bars
- Private Label
Marketing Strategies
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- OREO’s 100th birthday celebrated with multifaceted campaign
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- Figure 33: OREO “Daily Twist” campaign ad examples, 2012
- “Celebrate the Kid Inside” TV ad celebrates OREO’s 100th birthday
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- Figure 34: OREO, television ad, 2012
- OREO television ad leads viewer to Instagram as part of integrated approach
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- Figure 35: OREO, television ad, 2013
- Mr. Christie’s spot personifies blueberry to showcase real fruit
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- Figure 36: Mr. Christie’s, television ad, 2013
- Little Debbie reminds consumers to smile
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- Figure 37: Little Debbie, television ad, 2013
- Girl Scout Cookie ad might remind brands the power of engaging with community
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- Figure 38: Girl Scout Cookies, television ad, 2013
Social Media – Cookies and Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Key social media metrics
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- Figure 39: Key brand metrics, cookies and cookie bar brands, February 2013
- Market overview
- Brand usage and awareness
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- Figure 40: Usage and awareness of selected cookies and cookie bar brands, January 2013
- Interaction with brands
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- Figure 41: Interaction with selected cookies and cookie bar brands, January 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 42: Percentage of consumer conversation by selected cookies and cookie bar brands, by tier, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Figure 43: Online mentions, selected cookies and cookie bar brands, by day, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Where are people talking about cookies and cookie bar brands?
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- Figure 44: Mentions by page type, selected cookies and cookie bar brands, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- What are people talking about?
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- Figure 45: Mentions by type of conversation, selected cookies and cookie bar brands, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
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- Figure 46: Major areas of discussion surrounding cookies and cookie bar brands, by day, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Figure 47: Major areas of discussion surrounding cookies and cookie bar brands, by page type, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Brand analysis
- OREO
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- Figure 48: OREO key social media metrics, February 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Keebler
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- Figure 49: Keebler key social media metrics, February 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Chips Ahoy!
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- Figure 50: Chips Ahoy! key social media metrics, February 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Pepperidge Farm
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- Figure 51: Pepperidge Farm key social media metrics, February 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Nilla Wafers
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- Figure 52: Nilla Wafers key social media metrics, February 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- SnackWell’s
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- Figure 53: SnackWell’s key social media metrics, February 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
- Nonni’s Biscotti
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- Figure 54: Nonni’s Biscotti key social media metrics, February 2013
- Key online campaigns
- What we think
Cookie and Cookie Bar Consumption and Frequency
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- Key points
- Sandwich most popular variety, bite-sized and fruit-filled growing
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- Figure 55: Household usage of cookies, by type, July 2007-August 2012
- Nabisco is most popular brand, more affluent households over index
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- Figure 56: Household usage of cookies, by brands, by household income, August 2011-August 2012
- Nabisco holds strong position among families
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- Figure 57: Household usage of cookies, by brands, by presence of children in household, August 2011-August 2012
- Teens eat cookies most frequently
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- Figure 58: Household frequency usage of cookies in the past 30 days, by age, August 2011-August 2012
- Men more likely to eat healthy cookies
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- Figure 59: Cookie and cookie bar consumption, by gender, December 2012
Eating Occasions
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- Key points
- Women eating cookies after meals
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- Figure 60: Eating occasions for cookies and cookie bars, by gender, December 2012
- Young consumers eat cookies when bored
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- Figure 61: Eating occasions for cookies and cookie bars, by age, December 2012
- Parents serving cookies when they host
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- Figure 62: Eating occasions for cookies and cookie bars, by presence of children in household, December 2012
Eating and Baking Habits
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- Key points
- Near-majority of respondents keep a mostly healthy diet
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- Figure 63: Eating habits, by gender, December 2012
- More affluent consumers may be interested in natural ingredients
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- Figure 64: Eating habits, by household income, December 2012
- Premium brands attractive to health-conscious consumers
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- Figure 65: Eating habits, by cookie and cookie bar, December 2012
- One-third of respondents bake cookies at home
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- Figure 66: Eating habits, by gender, December 2012
Attitudes toward Cookies and Cookie Bars
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- Key points
- Taste is dominant reason why respondents eat cookies
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- Figure 67: Attitudes toward cookies and cookie bars, December 2012
- Less affluent households don’t think healthy cookies worth the cost
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- Figure 68: Buying attitudes toward cookies, by household income, December 2012
- Parents both budget-minded and understanding of certain costs
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- Figure 69: Buying attitudes toward cookies, by presence of children in household, December 2012
- Young consumers want sugar, less interested in healthier options
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward cookies, by age, December 2012
- Parents buying healthier options despite disliking the taste
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- Figure 71: Attitudes toward cookies, by presence of children in household, December 2012
Shopping Habits and Behaviors
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- Key points
- Parents more likely to read nutritional labels
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- Figure 72: Nutritional label reading habits, by cookies and cookie bars, December 2012
- Coupons and sale price cookies appeal to women
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- Figure 73: Shopping behavior, by gender, December 2012
- Brand names hold influence over cookie buyers
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- Figure 74: Brand buying habits, by age, December 2012
- Private label cookies appeal to consumers looking for value
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- Figure 75: Brand buying habits, by household income, December 2012
- Private label cookie buyers looking for more options
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- Figure 76: Attitudes toward cookies and cookie bars, by shopping habits and behaviors, December 2012
Health-related Attributes
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- Key points
- Opportunity for marketing healthy cookies, natural ingredients
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- Figure 77: Health-related attributes that characterize products purchased, by age, December 2012
- Less affluent consumers buying low-fat, low-sugar cookies
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- Figure 78: Health-related attributes that characterize cookies purchased, by household income, December 2012
Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Hispanics over index cookie consumption
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- Figure 79: Cookie and cookie bar consumption, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2012
- Hispanics sensitive to quality and nutrition
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- Figure 80: Buying attitudes toward cookies, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2012
- Hispanics most likely group to use private labels
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- Figure 81: Brand buying habits, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2012
- Hispanics over index purchase of nearly all health-related attributes
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- Figure 82: Health-related attributes that characterize products purchased, by race/Hispanic origin, December 2012
Cluster Analysis
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- Cluster 1: Afterthoughts
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster 2: Cookie Connoisseurs
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster 3: Traditionalists
- Demographics
- Characteristics
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristic tables
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- Figure 83: Target clusters, December 2012
- Figure 84: Cookie and cookie bar consumption, by target clusters, December 2012
- Figure 85: User groups of cookie and cookie bar consumption, by target clusters, December 2012
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- Figure 86: Eating occasions for cookies and cookie bars, by target clusters, December 2012
- Figure 87: Eating habits, by target clusters, December 2012
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- Figure 88: Baking habits, by target clusters, December 2012
- Figure 89: Buying attitudes toward cookies, by target clusters, December 2012
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- Figure 90: Attitudes toward cookies, by target clusters, December 2012
- Figure 91: Interest in new cookies products, by target clusters, December 2012
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- Figure 92: Nutritional label reading habits, by target clusters, December 2012
- Figure 93: Shopping behavior, by target clusters, December 2012
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- Figure 94: Brand buying habits, by target clusters, December 2012
- Figure 95: Health-related attributes that characterize products purchased, by target clusters, December 2012
- Cluster demographic tables
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- Figure 96: Target clusters, by demographic, December 2012
- Cluster methodology
IRI/Builders – Key Household Purchase Measures
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- Consumer insights on key purchase measures—cookies
- Brand map
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- Figure 97: Brand map, selected brands of cookies buying rate, by household penetration, 2012*
- Brand leader characteristics
- Key purchase measures
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- Figure 98: Key purchase measures for the top brands of cookies, by household penetration, 2012*
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
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- Household usage of cookies and age
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- Figure 99: Household usage of cookies, by brands, by age, August 2011-August 2012
- Cookie consumption and age
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- Figure 100: Cookie and cookie bar consumption, by age, December 2012
- Cookie consumption and presence of children in household
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- Figure 101: Cookie and cookie bar consumption, by presence of children in household, December 2012
- Interest in new cookie products and age
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- Figure 102: Interest in new cookies products, by age, December 2012
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- Figure 103: Household frequency usage of cookies in the past 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, August 2011-August 2012
Appendix: Market Drivers
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- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 104: University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment (ICS), 2007-13
- Food cost pressures
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- Figure 105: Changes in USDA Food Price Indexes, 2010 through 2013
- Obesity
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- Figure 106: U.S. Obesity, by age group, 2008 and 2012
Appendix: Social Media – Cookies and Cookie Bars
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- Brand usage or awareness
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- Figure 107: Brand usage or awareness, January 2013
- Figure 108: OREO usage or awareness, by demographics, January 2013
- Figure 109: Chips Ahoy! usage or awareness, by demographics, January 2013
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- Figure 110: Keebler usage or awareness, by demographics, January 2013
- Figure 111: Nilla Wafers usage or awareness, by demographics, January 2013
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- Figure 112: SnackWell’s usage or awareness, by demographics, January 2013
- Figure 113: Pepperidge farm usage or awareness, by demographics, January 2013
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- Figure 114: Nonni’s Biscotti usage or awareness, by demographics, January 2013
- Activities done
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- Figure 115: Activities done, January 2013
- Figure 116: OREO—Activities done by demographics, January 2013
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- Figure 117: Chips Ahoy!—Activities done by demographics, January 2013
- Figure 118: Keebler—Activities done by demographics, January 2013
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- Figure 119: Nilla Wafers—Activities done by demographics, January 2013
- Figure 120: SnackWell’s—Activities done by demographics, January 2013
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- Figure 121: Pepperidge farm—activities done by demographics, January 2013
- Figure 122: Nonni's Biscotti–Activities done by demographics, January 2013
- Online conversations
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- Figure 123: Percentage of consumer conversation by selected cookies and cookie bar brands, Tier 1 brands, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Figure 124: Percentage of consumer conversation by selected cookies and cookie bar brands, Tier 2 brands, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Figure 125: Online mentions, selected cookies and cookie bar brands, by day, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Figure 126: Mentions by page type, selected cookies and cookie bar brands, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
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- Figure 127: Mentions by type of conversation, selected cookies and cookie bar brands, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Figure 128: Major areas of discussion surrounding cookies and cookie bar brands, by day, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
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- Figure 129: Major areas of discussion surrounding cookies and cookie bar brands, by page type, Jan. 26, 2013-Feb. 25, 2013
- Figure 130: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
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- Figure 131: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2008, 2013, and 2018
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- Figure 132: Households with children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
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- Figure 133: Population, by age, 2006-16
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- Figure 134: Households, by presence of own children, 2002-12
- Unemployment
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- Figure 135: U.S. Unemployment rate, by month, 2002-13
- Figure 136: U.S. Unemployment and under-employment rates, 2007-13
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- Figure 137: Number of employed civilians in U.S., in thousands, 2007-13
Appendix: SymphonyIRI Builders Panel Data Definitions
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- SymphonyIRI Consumer Network Metrics
Appendix: Trade Associations
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