Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Forecast
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2006-16
- Market factors
- UK obesity levels steadily rising
- Consumers look to enjoy indulgent treats more often
- Low consumer confidence of benefit to snack-at-home categories…
- …With price starting to prevail over loyalty
- Rising raw material prices a threat to keeping salty snacks affordable
- Population changes create both opportunities and threats
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- Figure 2: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Pepsico remains the dominant market force
- Potato crisps and supermarkets drive innovation in the market
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- Figure 3: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by top companies, 2007-11*
- Healthy claims fall as NPD looks to keep its options open
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- Figure 4: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by claims, 2010 and 2011*
- Adspend looks set to fall in 2011
- The consumer
- Falling numbers of snackers in the market
- Standard potato crisps remain the most popular type…
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- Figure 5: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
- …With snacking at home dominating
- Price grows in importance as a choice factor when buying crisps
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- Figure 6: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks or nuts, November 2011
- Consumers show keen interest in flavour and resealable packaging
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards crisps and salty snacks, November 2011
- Health considerations come to the fore for consumption of nuts
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards nuts, November 2011
- Overpricing a major barrier to popcorn usage
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards popcorn, November 2011
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can the market arrest falling numbers of users?
- How can over-55s be encouraged to try new types of crisps and salty snacks?
- How can the sharing bags market boost their market share further?
- How can manufacturers draw more men into the salty snacks market?
Future Opportunities
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- Extend my Brand
- A Simple Balance for Health
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Fewer Brits claim to be snacking in 2011
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- Figure 10: Snacking between meals, 2009-11
- Rising UK obesity levels put pressure on snack manufacturers
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- Figure 11: Body mass index segments, 2007-11
- Increasing numbers of consumers are looking for indulgent treats
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- Figure 12: Agreement with health-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- Consumers becoming more price-conscious and less brand-loyal
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- Figure 13: Agreement with cost-related lifestyle statements, 2007-11
- Trend for staying at home benefiting affordable indulgences
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- Consumers to remain conservative with limited value market growth
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- Figure 14: Consumer confidence index, monthly, January 2007-December 2011
- The UK’s changing demographic profile presents challenges and opportunities
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- Figure 15: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
- An ageing population a threat to the crisps market, but a potential boon for nuts
- Conversely, growing numbers of 25-34-year-olds may have the opposite effect
- Changing social patterns are also likely to lead to fragmented growth
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- Figure 16: Projected trends in the UK population, by socio-economic group, 2011-16
- C2s may hold the key for the crisps and nuts markets…
- …With ABs also likely to play a central role
- Declining numbers of D users a threat to crisps
- Rising raw material prices put pressure on manufacturer margins
Competitive Context
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- Key points
- Crisps, salty snacks and nuts face a wide variety of competition
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- Figure 17: Retail sales in selected markets competing with crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2006-11
- Healthy snacking being encouraged, but consumers still look for treats
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- Figure 18: Trends in attitudes towards selected healthy lifestyles, December 2008-October 2011
- Confectionery benefits from strong on-the-go positioning
- Growth of bag formats remains a threat to crisps and salty snacks
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Crisps NPD outstrips the market
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- Figure 19: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by sub-category, 2007-11*
- Supermarkets up the ante in NPD
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- Figure 20: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by top companies, 2011*
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- Figure 21: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by label, 2007-11*
- Healthy claims fall in 2011
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- Figure 22: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by claims, 2010 and 2011*
- NPD returns to the tried and tested
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- Figure 23: Product launches within the UK crisps, salty snacks and nuts market, by flavour, 2011*
- Key themes
- Supermarkets heat up competition in premium crisps segment
- Crisp brands highlight their use of local produce
- Smaller bags but big flavour
- Popcorn NPD booms in 2011
- Nuts tackle expensive image with economy launches
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Market size for crisps and salty snacks
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- Figure 24: UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2006-11*
- Market size for nuts
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- Figure 25: UK retail sales of nuts, 2006-11
- Forecast
- Forecast for crisps and salty snacks
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- Figure 26: UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks, 2006-16*
- Figure 27: Forecast of UK retail sales of crisps and salty snacks*, by value, 2006-16
- Forecast for nuts
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- Figure 28: UK retail sales of nuts, 2006-16
- Figure 29: Forecast of UK retail sales of nuts, by value, 2006-16
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Crisps remain the largest individual type of snack
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- Figure 30: UK retail value sales of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by type, 2009-11
- Nuts segment posts growth despite brand woes
- Snacks represent just under half of the market
- Child-friendly snacks remain a potentially lucrative market
Market Share
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- Key points
- Walkers continues to dominate the crisps market
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- Figure 31: Leading brands’ value shares in crisps and salty snacks, 2009-11
- Mixed fortunes for PepsiCo’s brands
- New sub-brands add competition
- Doritos driving the success of tortilla chips
- Interest in retro brands remains strong
- Pringles struggles as takeover talks appear to impact on sales
- UB has success in growing value share of key brands
- Seabrook consolidates its position in the market
- Premium sales for premium crisps
- New entrants help to drive popcorn sales
- KP the only major brand to post growth in 2011
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- Figure 32: Leading brands’ value shares in nuts, 2009-11
- Peperami and Mattessons drive sales of meat snacks
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- Figure 33: Leading brands’ value shares in meat snacks, 2009-11
Companies and Products
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- Diamond Foods
- Procter & Gamble
- PepsiCo
- Seabrook
- Tyrrells
- United Biscuits (UB)
- The Dormen Food Company
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 34: Attitudes towards and usage of brands in the crisps and salty snacks sector, November 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 35: Attitudes, by crisp and salty snacks brand, November 2011
- Brand personality
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- Figure 36: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – macro image, November 2011
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- Figure 37: Crisps and salty snacks brand personality – micro image, November 2011
- Brand experience
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- Figure 38: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, November 2011
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- Figure 39: Satisfaction with various crisps and salty snacks brands, November 2011
- Figure 40: Consideration of crisps and salty snacks brands, November 2011
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- Figure 41: Consumer perceptions of current crisps and salty snacks brand performance, November 2011
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- Figure 42: Crisps and salty snacks brand recommendation – net promoter score, November 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 43: Crisps and salty snacks brand index, November 2011
- Figure 44: Crisps and salty snacks brand index vs. recommendation, November 2011
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 45: Target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 46: Crisps and salty snacks brand usage, by target groups, November 2011
- Group One – Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – Individualists
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend looks set to decline in 2011
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- Figure 47: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, 2007-11*
- Walkers ramps up its adspend and tightens its grip on the market
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- Figure 48: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by top-spending companies in 2011, 2008-11
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- Figure 49: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by top ten brands, 2011*
- TV remains the dominant advertising medium despite a slight fall
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- Figure 50: Main monitored media advertising spend on crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by media type, 2008-11*
Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Multiple grocers strengthen their dominance in the market
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- Figure 51: Retail distribution of crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by outlet type, 2009-11
- Exclusivity still plays a small role in the market
- Crisps and salty snacks remain a part of the pub experience
Consumer – Trends in Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts
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- Key points
- Crisps and salty snacks suffer decline in user numbers
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- Figure 52: Usage of potato crisps, tortilla chips and corn snacks, 2007-11
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- Figure 53: Types of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks used most often, 2007-11
- Nuts also see numbers of users fall
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- Figure 54: Usage of nuts and dried fruit, 2009-11
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- Figure 55: Types of nuts and dried fruits used most often, 2009-11
- Nuts usage pattern almost the complete opposite of crisps
Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Type
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- Key points
- Standard crisps remains the most popular snack type
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- Figure 56: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
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- Figure 57: Most likely gender and age group to eat different types of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, November 2011
- Standard crisps remain dominant in consumers’ preferences
- Premium crisps continue moving into the mainstream
- Usage of tortilla chips grows rapidly
- Healthier crisps show signs of growth
- Popcorn is the star performer in 2011
- Roasted nuts are the second most widely eaten salty snack
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- Figure 58: Consumption of nuts in the last six months, by type, by age, November 2011
- More consumers expanding their crisps and salty snacks repertoires
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- Figure 59: Repertoire of usage of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, November 2011
Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Location and Occasion
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- Key points
- Home use dominates consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts
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- Figure 60: Locations for eating crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
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- Figure 61: Percentage point change in what consumers spend extra money on, November 2009 against October 2011
- Evening snacking dominates use of crisps, salty snacks and nuts
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- Figure 62: Occasions for eating crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Key points
- Price and flavour dominate as the main choice factors
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- Figure 63: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
- Consumers increasingly considering price but not special offers
- Consumers move towards their favourites and away from experimenting
- Trust important for three in five consumers
- Have sharing bags peaked?
- Over-55s look for health and quality ingredients
- Summary of choice factors by types of crisp and salty snacks
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- Figure 64: Choice factors, by top three types of snack, November 2011
Consumer – Attitudes towards Crisps and Salty Snacks
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- Key points
- Resealable packaging and flavour dominate consumer attitudes
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- Figure 65: Attitudes towards crisps and salty snacks, November 2011
- Resealable packaging may help refresh sharing bags
- Flavour more important than health for the majority of consumers…
- …But healthy crisps may be on the rise
- Brands still lead the way on taste
Consumer – Attitudes towards Nuts and Popcorn
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- Key points
- Health considerations come to the fore for consumption of nuts
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- Figure 66: Attitudes towards nuts, November 2011
- Roasted nuts benefits from a healthy image...
- …Although consumers are limiting their usage of nuts on health grounds
- Strong interest in newness, fair trade nuts and sharing bags
- Price represents a notable challenge for nuts
- Perceived overpricing a major barrier to popcorn usage
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- Figure 67: Attitudes towards popcorn, November 2011
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Five target groups
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- Figure 68: Target groups for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
- Budgeters (23%)
- Health-conscious (20%)
- Enthusiasts (19%)
- Indulgents (12%)
- Undriven (26%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 69: Reasons for snacking 2009-11
- Figure 70: Trends in current financial situation compared to a year ago, July-October 2011
- Figure 71: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2007-11
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- Figure 72: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011
- Figure 73: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 74: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2011 (continued)
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Appendix – Competitive Context
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- Figure 75: Trends in attitudes towards selected healthy lifestyles, December 2008-October 2011
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 76: Best and worst case forecasts for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2011-16
- Figure 77: Best and worst case forecasts for crisps, salty snacks and nuts, by value, 2011-16
- Figure 78: Best and worst case forecasts for nuts, by value, 2011-16
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 79: Brand usage, November 2011
- Figure 80: Brand commitment, November 2011
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- Figure 81: Brand momentum, November 2011
- Figure 82: Brand diversity, November 2011
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- Figure 83: Brand satisfaction, November 2011
- Figure 84: Brand recommendation, November 2011
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- Figure 85: Brand attitude, November 2011
- Figure 86: Brand image – macro image, November 2011
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- Figure 87: Brand image – micro image, November 2011
- Figure 88: Profile of target groups by demographics, November 2011
- Figure 89: Psychographic segmentation by target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 90: Brand usage by target groups, November 2011
- Figure 91: Brand index, November 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Trends in Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts
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- Figure 92: Reasons for snacking, 2009-11
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- Figure 93: Usage of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks, by demographics, 2011
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- Figure 94: Types of potato crisps, tortilla and corn snacks used most often, 2007-11
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- Figure 95: Usage of nuts and dried fruit, by demographics, 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Type
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- Figure 96: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 97: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 98: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 99: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months by type, by repertoire, November 2011
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- Figure 100: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Usage of Crisps, Salty Snacks and Nuts by Location and Occasion
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- Figure 101: Locations for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks: by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 102: Occasions for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Choice Factors
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- Figure 103: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 104: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 105: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by demographics, November 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 106: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011
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- Figure 107: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011 (continued)
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- Figure 108: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type, November 2011 (continued)
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes towards Crisps and Salty Snacks
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- Figure 109: Attitudes towards crisps, salty snacks and nuts, November 2011
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- Figure 110: Agreement with the statements ‘I prefer the taste of branded crisps/salty snacks to own-label ones’ and ‘I only buy premium crisps / salty snacks when they are on offer’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 111: Agreement with the statements ‘I am prepared to pay more for branded crisps/salty snacks’ and ‘I prefer crisps made from UK-sourced potatoes’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 112: Agreement with the statements ‘Healthy crisps are tastier than they used to be’ and ‘I buy more sharing bags than I used to’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 113: Agreement with the statements ‘Flavour is more important to me than calorie content’ and ‘I always try to buy healthy crisps/salty snacks’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 114: Agreement with the statements “I would like to see resealable packaging for large sharing packs of crisps/salty snacks” and “I like to buy retro crisps / salty snacks”, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Attitudes towards Nuts and Popcorn
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- Figure 115: Attitudes towards nuts and popcorn, November 2011
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- Figure 116: Agreement with the statements ‘Roasted nuts are a good source of protein and vitamins’ and ‘I limit the amount of roasted nuts I eat because they are unhealthy’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 117: Agreement with the statements ‘Roasted nuts are healthier than crisps/other salty snacks’ and ‘I would prefer to buy nuts in a large sharing bag’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 118: Agreement with the statements ‘I like trying new brands and flavours of nuts’ and ‘Nuts are cheap when compared to other snacks’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 119: Agreement with the statements ‘I only buy nuts when they are on special offer’ and ‘I would buy more nuts if the salt content was lower’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 120: Agreement with the statements ‘I would be more likely to buy healthier nut options’ and ‘I would like to buy more fair trade nuts’, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 121: Agreement with the statements ‘Popcorn is healthier than other snacks’ and ‘Popcorn is overpriced’, by demographics, November 2011
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Appendix – Consumer – Target Groups
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- Figure 122: Target groups, by demographics, November 2011
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- Figure 123: Consumption of crisps, salty snacks and nuts in the last six months, by type; by target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 124: Locations for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 125: Occasions for eating crisps, nuts and salty snacks; by target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 126: Most important factors when choosing crisps, salty snacks and nuts; by target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 127: Attitudes towards eating crisps and salty snacks, by target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 128: Attitudes towards eating nuts and popcorn, by target groups, November 2011
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- Figure 129: Healthy lifestyles, by target groups, November 2011
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