Table of Contents
Introduction
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- Definition
- Abbreviations
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Price inflation fuels value growth despite falling volume sales
- Tubs are still the largest segment
- Forecast
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2006-16
- Market factors
- Conflicting attitudes to healthy eating pose challenges and opportunities
- Local and global factors affect ice cream
- Demographic changes set to support demand for ice cream
- Companies, brands and innovation
- Unilever leads in both tubs and handhelds
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ value shares in tubs and pots segment, 2010
- Figure 3: Leading brands’ value shares in handheld ice cream, 2010
- Brands dominate new product development
- Ad spend posts rapid growth in 2009 and 2010
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- Figure 4: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on ice cream, 2006-10
- The consumer
- Handheld formats see usage rise
- Supermarkets are key channel for ice cream purchases
- Ice cream is first and foremost eaten as a treat
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- Figure 5: Occasions for eating ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
- Favourite flavour holds the lead among choice factors
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- Figure 6: Choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
- Half of users stock up on ice cream on promotion
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards ice cream, sorbets and frozen yogurt, May 2011
- What we think
Issues in the Market
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- How can brands compete on grounds other than price?
- How much potential is there for frozen yogurt in the retail channel?
- Can 'light' variants help to drive demand?
- What factors are most important to consumers when choosing ice cream?
Future Opportunities
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- Trend: Simple Balance for Health
- Trend: Brand Review
Internal Market Environment
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- Key points
- Impulse sector reliant on warm weather
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- Figure 8: Summer sunshine and rainfall trends, 2004-10
- Recession boosts indulgent eating
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- Figure 9: Trends in eating desserts/treats, 2006-10
- Rise in obesity levels keeps healthy eating on the nation’s agenda
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- Figure 10: Trends in obesity, 2006-10
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- Figure 11: Trends in healthy lifestyles and eating habits, 2006-10
Broader Market Environment
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- Key points
- The definition of ice cream dampens NPD in lighter variants
- Rising commodity prices put pressure on manufacturers
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- Figure 12: UK farmgate price of milk, UK, January 2008-February 2011
- Figure 13: Price of refined granulated sugar, UK, January 2007-February 2011
- Storage space is growing with more fridge freezers
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- Figure 14: Household ownership of freezers (separate from refrigerator) and combined fridge/freezers, 2006-10
- No rebound in consumer confidence in the short term
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- Figure 15: GFK NOP consumer confidence index, January 2006-April 2011
- Premium ice cream set to benefit from the rising number of ABs
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- Figure 16: Projected trends in the UK population, by socio-economic group, 2011-16
- Growth in the number of 5-9-year-olds will support demand
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- Figure 17: Projected trends in the UK population, by age group, 2011-16
Strengths and Weaknesses
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- Strengths
- Weaknesses
Competitive Context
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- Key point
- Ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt face competition from healthier and indulgent treats
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- Figure 18: UK retail value sales in current terms for selected categories competing with ice cream, 2006-10
- Growth in fresh fruit sales fuelled by rising prices
- Healthy eating trend is putting pressure on chocolate consumption
- Biscuits offer a cheap treat
- Yogurt enjoys a rare position as a healthy treat
Who’s Innovating?
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- Key points
- Ice cream desserts dominates new product launches
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- Figure 19: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2006-11*
- Branded players lead in NPD
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- Figure 20: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt – branded vs. own label, 2006-11*
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- Figure 21: Top ten companies in ice cream sorbet and frozen yogurt, by NPD, 2008-11*
- Vegetarian, no additives/preservatives and environmentally friendly packaging feature strongly among new launches
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- Figure 22: Most common claims in NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, January 2010-June 2011
- Allergen-free launches become increasingly common
- Smaller portion sizes cater for moderation
- 100% natural ingredients
- Chocolate brands continue to extend into the ice cream market
- What’s your flavour?
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- Figure 23: NPD in ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, launches by flavour, top 8, 2006-11**
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Ice cream suppliers pass on commodity price rises onto consumer
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- Figure 24: UK retail value and volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2006-11
- Forecast
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- Figure 25: Forecast of UK retail sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by value, 2006-16
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- Figure 26: UK retail value sales and forecast of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2006-16
- Forecast methodology
Segment Performance
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- Key points
- Ice cream sector dominates total market
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- Figure 27: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, 2008-10
- Tubs lead the way
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- Figure 28: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by format, 2008-10
Market Share
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- Key points
- Unilever’s Ben & Jerry’s and Carte D’Or lead in tubs market
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- Figure 29: Leading brands’ value shares in tubs of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by brand, 2008-10
- Unilever’s Magnum is the big hitter in the handheld market
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- Figure 30: Leading brands’ value shares in handheld ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2008-10
Companies and Products
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- Manufacturers and brands
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- Figure 31: Selected leading companies in the ice cream market in the UK and their brands, 2010
- Fredericks Dairies
- General Mills
- Green & Black’s
- Mars
- R&R
- Unilever
Brand Communication and Promotion
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- Key points
- Adspend on ice cream grows rapidly since 2008
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- Figure 32: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on ice cream, 2006-10
- Figure 33: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream market, by product category, 2008-10
- TV dominates adspend
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- Figure 34: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on ice cream, by medium, 2008-10
- Unilever leads in adspend
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- Figure 35: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream market, by company, 2008-10
- General Mills’ Häagen-Dazs was biggest ice cream advertiser in 2010
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- Figure 36: Advertising expenditure in the UK ice cream market, by top ten brands, 2008-10
- Adspend is seasonal and mirrors new product launches
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- Figure 37: Average monthly NPD and adspend for ice cream, cumulative 2008-11*
Brand Research
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- Figure 38: Attitudes towards and usage of ice cream brands, April 2011
- Brand attitudes
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- Figure 39: Attitudes by ice cream brand, April 2011
- Correspondence analysis
- Brand personality
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- Figure 40: Ice cream brand personality – macro image, April 2011
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- Figure 41: Ice cream brand personality – micro image, April 2011
- Brand experience
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- Figure 42: Ice cream brand usage, April 2011
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- Figure 43: Satisfaction with various ice cream brands, April 2011
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- Figure 44: Consideration of ice cream brands, April 2011
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- Figure 45: Consumer perceptions of current ice cream brand performance, April 2011
- Net promoter score
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- Figure 46: Ice cream brand recommendation – Net Promoter Score, April 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 47: Ice cream brand index, April 2011
- Figure 48: Ice cream brand index vs. recommendation, April 2011
- Target group analysis
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- Figure 49: Target groups, April 2011
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- Figure 50: Ice cream brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
- Group One – The Conformists
- Group Two – Simply the Best
- Group Three – Shelf Stalkers
- Group Four – Habitual Shoppers
- Group Five – The Individualists
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Channels to Market
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- Key points
- Multiples dominate the take-home market
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- Figure 51: UK retail value sales of take-home ice cream, by outlet type, 2008-10
- CTNs lead in impulse ice cream
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- Figure 52: UK retail value sales of wrapped impulse ice cream, by outlet type, 2008-10
The Consumer – Trends in Usage of Ice Cream
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- Key points
- Tubs and blocks
- Usage declines in 2010
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- Figure 53: Trends in frequency of use of ice cream in tubs and blocks, 2009-10
- Tubs appeal to older consumers
- Bars, cones, sticks and mini tubs
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- Figure 54: Trends in frequency of eating ice cream bars, cones, sticks and tubs (including mini versions), 2006-10
The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Type
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- Key points
- Standard tubs are top choice
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- Figure 55: Usage of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by type, May 2011
The Consumer – Purchase of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Location
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- Key points
- Supermarkets are the main purchase channel
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- Figure 56: Purchases of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by location, May 2011
- A visit to the ice cream van appeals to families
- The food service channel plays a small role in ice cream
The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Occasion
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- Key points
- Ice cream is first and foremost a treat
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- Figure 57: Occasions for eating ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
- …but enjoys limited appeal for serving on special occasions and to guests
The Consumer – Choice Factors in Buying Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt
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- Key points
- Favourite flavour is key choice factor for two in three
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- Figure 58: Choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, May 2011
- Flavour comes first
- Price and promotions play a key role in the market
- Brands matter to a sizeable minority, low-fat is of niche interest
The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt
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- Key points
- Quality trumps calories for half the nation
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- Figure 59: Attitudes towards ice cream, sorbets and frozen yogurt, May 2011
- Nearly half of users stock up on ice cream on promotion
- Half of users are interested in new flavours
- Quality of ingredients trumps calories for half of users
Consumer – Target Groups
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- Key points
- Five target groups
- Loyalists (20%)
- Price Conscious (22%)
- Quality Enthusiasts (17%)
- Weight Watchers (24%)
- Purists (17%)
Appendix – Internal Market Environment
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- Figure 60: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2010
- Figure 61: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2010
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- Figure 62: Ownership of freezer/combined fridge/freezer, by demographics, 2010
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Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 63: UK retail value sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, best and worst case forecast, 2011-16
- Figure 64: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt (litres), 2006-16
- Figure 65: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, 2006-16
- Figure 66: UK retail volume sales of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, best and worst case forecast, 2011-16
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Appendix – Brand Research
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- Figure 67: Brand usage, April 2011
- Figure 68: Brand commitment, April 2011
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- Figure 69: Brand momentum, April 2011
- Figure 70: Brand diversity, April 2011
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- Figure 71: Brand satisfaction, April 2011
- Figure 72: Brand recommendation, April 2011
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- Figure 73: Brand attitude, April 2011
- Figure 74: Brand image – Macro image, April 2011
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- Figure 75: Brand image – Micro image, April 2011
- Figure 76: Profile of target groups, by demographics, April 2011
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- Figure 77: Psychographic segmentation, by target groups, April 2011
- Figure 78: Brand usage, by target groups, April 2011
- Brand index
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- Figure 79: Brand index, April 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Ice Creams
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- Figure 80: Frequency of use of ice cream in tubs and blocks, by demographics, 2010
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- Figure 81: Trends in frequency of eating ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions), 2006-10
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- Figure 82: Frequency of eating ice cream bars, cones, tubs and sticks (including mini versions), by demographics, 2010
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Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Type
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- Figure 83: Most popular types of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 84: Next most popular types of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Purchase of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Location
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- Figure 85: Most popular locations to purchase ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 86: Next most popular locations to purchase ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Usage of Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt by Occasion
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- Figure 87: Most popular usage of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt by occasion, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 88: Next most popular usage of ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt by occasion, by demographics, May 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Choice Factors in Buying Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt
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- Figure 89: Most popular choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 90: Next most popular choice factors in buying ice cream, sorbet and frozen yogurt, by demographics, May 2011
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Appendix – The Consumer – Attitudes Towards Ice Cream, Sorbet and Frozen Yogurt
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- Figure 91: Agreement with the statements ‘I stock up on ice cream when it’s on promotion’ and ‘I usually buy whichever brand is on offer’, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 92: Agreement with the statements ‘I have switched to a cheaper brand/own-label ice cream to save money’ and ‘I like to try new flavours rather than stick to one all the time’, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 93: Agreement with the statements ‘I’m interested in exotic/unusual flavours’ and ‘I would buy products with superfood ingredients (eg baobab, green tea etc)’, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 94: Agreement with the statements ‘I would buy products with added health benefits (eg probiotic, antioxidants etc)’ and ‘I pay attention to calories when buying ice cream’, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 95: Agreement with the statements ‘High quality ingredients are more important than calories’ and ‘“Light” ice cream doesn’t taste as good as regular’, by demographics, May 2011
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- Figure 96: Agreement with the statements ‘I’d like to see a bigger selection of frozen yogurts at the supermarket’ and ‘I’d like to see a bigger selection of sorbets at the supermarket’, by demographics, May 2011
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Appendix – Target Groups
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- Figure 97: Target groups, by demographics, May 2011
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