Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Resources used for Consumer sections
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- In a nutshell
- Restaurant industry in recession
- Fast casual restaurants weather economic storm well
- Region is the great demographic differentiator
- Playing to strength
- Sales momentum lies with bread-based and ethnic chains
- For bread-based chains, breakfast innovation is paramount
- Chipotle: a case study in excellence
- Other leading chains
- Other notable trends
- Snacking innovation: a QSR killer?
- Dinner: to participate, or not to participate?
- The need for speed
- Catering to the masses; it’s a bread-based thing
- The internet is for everyone
- Advertising and promotion
- Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart
- Decision criteria regarding fast casual restaurants
- Fast casual restaurant selection factors
Insights and Opportunities
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- Do you know where your menu opportunity gap is?
- Key points
- Fresh: on the money
- A call for more healthy meals
- Organic overplayed
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- Figure 1: Change in fast casual menu items versus consumer interest in menu items, by type of item, 2006 vs 2007
Fast Forward Trends
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- Moral Brands
- What's it about?
- Let fast casual carry some of that burden
- Leveraging morality a key to the future
- Sense of the Intense
- What's it about?
- Driving the taste experience
- Driving the entertainment experience
- Who’s doing it?
- Where can it go?
Competitive Context
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- Regional footprint = growth potential; similar, overlapping concepts to suffer
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- Figure 2: Leading ethnic fast casual chains, by state-to-state location and penetration, 2007
- Do you want to be McDonald’s? Or do you want to be “you”?
- Rule #1: Don’t try to be McDonald’s.
- Rule #2: Play to your strengths.
- Competing on value and premium
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- Figure 3: Average price per entrée, family versus fast casual versus QSR, Q1 2007 and Q1 2008
Market Size and Forecast
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- Market size
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. systemwide sales of leading fast casual chains, at current and inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-09
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- Figure 5: Selected fast casual restaurant same-store sales, 2005-07
Segmentation Performance
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- Introduction
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- Figure 6: U.S. systemwide sales of leading fast casual chains, segmented by menu type, 2005 and 2007
Segment Performance: Bread-Based Chains
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- Figure 7: U.S. systemwide sales of top bread-based fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007
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- Figure 8: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading bread-based fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007
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Segment Performance: Traditional Chains
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- Figure 9: U.S. systemwide sales of top traditional fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007
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- Figure 10: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading traditional fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007
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Segment Performance: Ethnic Chains
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- Figure 11: U.S. systemwide sales of top ethnic fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 12: U.S. systemwide units and sales per unit of leading ethnic fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007
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Market Drivers
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- Restaurant industry in recession
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- Figure 13: Restaurant performance index: all-items, current situation, and expectations, January 2006-June 2008
- Fast casual restaurants weather economic storm well
- Consumers under pressure
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- Figure 14: Consumer Price Index, key consumer items, January 2006-June 2008*
- Discretionary income under attack; but upper-middle income families feel less pain
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- Figure 15: Percentage of income spent on key consumer expenditures, by HH income quintile, 2006*
- Good news for fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 16: Usage and mean use of fast casual, family and quick-service restaurants, by HH income, 2007*
- Rising farm products costs pressure foodservice margins
- Stirring the melting pot
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- Figure 19: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
Leading Companies
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- Figure 20: U.S. systemwide sales of top fast casual chains, 2005 and 2007
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Restaurant Analysis: Panera Bread
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- The environment
- The menu
- Pulling Crispani signals entrée shift out of dinner daypart
- Bakery items, soups and salads rule the menu
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- Figure 21: Panera Bread, new menu introductions, food, by menu course, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
- Growth trajectory: positive, but same-store sales a trouble spot
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- Figure 22: Panera Bread same-store sales, 2005-07
- Moving forward
Restaurant Analysis: Buffalo Wild Wings
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- The environment
- The menu
- Dinner and late-night dayparts set concept apart
- Aggressive and innovative advertising and promotions
- Growth trajectory: positive
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- Figure 23: Buffalo Wild Wings, average weekly sales, 2003-Q1 2008
Restaurant Analysis: Chipotle
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- The environment
- The menu
- An ingredient innovator
- Growth trajectory: positive, on heels of best-in-class branding
Restaurant Analysis: Steak n Shake
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- Menu on a health kick?
- The milkshake conundrum
- Leveraging the drive-thru
- Growth trajectory: neutral
Restaurant Analysis: Boston Market
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- The menu
- Growth trajectory: neutral
Restaurant Analysis: Zaxby’s
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- The experience
- The menu
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- Figure 24: Zaxby’s, food menu items, by cuisine type, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
- Snacking innovation
- An Asian twist
- Growth trajectory: positive
Restaurant Analysis: Pei Wei
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- The menu
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- Figure 25: Pei Wei, food menu items, by cuisine type, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
- Figure 26: Pei Wei, top five food menu items, by ingredient, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
- Growth trajectory: positive, but significantly slower growth ahead
Restaurant Brand Qualities: Chipotle Case Study
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- Keeping it simple, but catering to choice
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- Figure 27: Fast casual selection factors—value, variety, convenience, May 2008
- Balancing the quality/freshness/healthfulness bar
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- Figure 28: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, May 2008
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- Figure 29: Chipotle, food menu items, by ingredient claim, Q1 2007-Q2 2008
- Drilling down: “Food with Integrity” melds quality with healthfulness
- A 700-chain locavore
- All of which enhances the value proposition
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- Figure 30: Fast casual selection factors—value, May 2008
- Bottom line: one heck of a branding story
Innovation and Innovators
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- Daypart innovation
- Breakfast—for bread-based chains, innovation is paramount
- Snacking innovation—a QSR killer?
- Dinner: to participate, or not to participate
- Standing out in a crowd
- The entertainment factor
- The need for speed
- Outreach and efficiency through catering and technology
- Catering to the masses; it’s a bread-based thing
- The internet is for everyone
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
- A low bar: un-hip, low-budget advertising
- Non-TV media
- Television ads
- Boston Market
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- Figure 31: Boston Market: the argument, 2008
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- Figure 32: Boston Market: the argument, revisited, 2008
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- Figure 33: Boston Market, the argument, Round Three, 2008
- Buffalo Wild Wings
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- Figure 34: Buffalo Wild Wings, “The Boss,” 2008
- Fazoli’s
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- Figure 35: Fazoli’s, “Deal Days,” 2008
- Steak n Shake
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- Figure 36: Steak n Shake “mixing up flavor,” 2008
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- Figure 37: Steak n Shake, “we can do that,” 2008
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- Figure 38: Steak n Shake, Double Steakburger Festival, 2008
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- Figure 39: Steak n Shake, shake focus, 2008
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- Figure 40: Steak n Shake, kids’ shakes, 2008
Usage of Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Key points
- Usage of fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 41: Fast casual order purchases in past month, by gender, age, HH income and race/ethnicity, June 2008
Usage of Fast Casual Restaurant Brands
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- Key points
- Usage of fast casual restaurant brands
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- Figure 42: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, June 2008
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- Figure 43: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by HH income, June 2008
- Usage of fast casual restaurant brands—supplementary view
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- Figure 44: Usage of eight leading fast casual restaurant brands, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
- Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart
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- Figure 45: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart, June 2008
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- Figure 46: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart, by age, June 2008
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- Figure 47: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart, by number of people in household, June 2008
Decision Criteria Regarding Fast Casual Restaurants
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- Key points
- Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, June 2008
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- Figure 49: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by age, June 2008
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- Figure 50: Competitive attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by income, June 2008
Fast Casual Restaurant Selection Factors
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- Key points
- Section methodology
- General food attributes
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- Figure 51: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, June 2008
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- Figure 52: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by age, June 2008
- Figure 53: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by income, June 2008
- Value and variety
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- Figure 54: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, June 2008
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- Figure 55: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by gender, June 2008
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- Figure 56: Fast casual selection factors—value and variety, by age, June 2008
- Where and what?
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- Figure 57: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, June 2008
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- Figure 58: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, by gender, June 2008
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- Figure 59: Fast casual selection factors—where and what, by age, June 2008
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- Figure 60: Fast casual selection factors—general food attributes, by income, June 2008
- Specific food choices
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- Figure 61: Fast casual selection factors—specific food choices, June 2008
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- Figure 62: Fast casual selection factors— specific food choices, by age, June 2008
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- Figure 63: Fast casual selection factors— specific food choices, by ethnicity, June 2008
Food Options Fast Casual Users Want to See
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- Key points
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- Figure 64: Food options fast casual and QSR users want to see more of, June 2008
Custom Focus: Urban, Suburban, and Rural Consumers
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- Key points
- Urban, suburban, rural tastes and preferences analysis
- Decreased restaurant spend may have pronounced effect on restaurants in rural areas
- Chicken and fish use on the rise, more so in urban and suburban areas
- Food knowledge important to 20%, across areas
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- Figure 65: Fast casual dietary habits, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
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- Figure 66: Fast casual beverage tastes, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
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- Figure 67: Fast casual dietary habits, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
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- Figure 68: Meals eaten at fast casual restaurants, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
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- Figure 69: Fast casual food procurement methods and quality beliefs, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
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- Figure 70: Basis of selecting fast casual restaurants, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
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- Figure 71: Fast casual restaurant choices, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
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- Figure 72: Fast casual restaurant choices, by proximity to urban center, June 2008
Custom Focus: Dietary Motivations
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- Key points
- Beverage tastes
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- Figure 73: Fast casual consumer beverage tastes, by dietary motivation, June 2008
- Daypart usage
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- Figure 74: Meals eaten at fast casual restaurants, by dietary motivation, June 2008
- Fast casual food procurement methods and quality beliefs
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- Figure 75: Fast casual food procurement methods and quality beliefs, by dietary motivation, June 2008
- Basis of selecting fast casual restaurants
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- Figure 76: Basis of selecting fast casual restaurants, by dietary motivation, June 2008
- Fast casual consumer eating habits
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- Figure 77: Fast casual consumer eating habits, by dietary motivation, June 2008
- Fast casual restaurant choices
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- Figure 78: Fast casual restaurant choices, by dietary motivation, June 2008
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- Figure 79: Fast casual restaurant choices, by dietary motivation, June 2008
Cluster Analysis
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- Fresh, enthusiastic activists
- Opportunity
- Who they are
- Budgeting babes
- Fast casual contrarians
- Opportunity
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- Figure 80: Fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Figure 81: Fast casual dietary habits, by fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
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- Figure 82: Fast casual beverage tastes, by fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Figure 83: Fast casual dietary habits, by fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
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- Figure 84: Usage of fast casual restaurant brands, by daypart, by fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Figure 85: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants, by fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
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- Figure 86: Fast casual restaurant selection factors, by fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
- Figure 87: Food options fast casual users want to see more of, by fast casual restaurant user clusters, June 2008
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- Figure 88: Fast casual restaurant user clusters, by gender, June 2008
- Figure 89: Fast casual restaurant user clusters, by age group, June 2008
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- Figure 90: Fast casual restaurant user clusters, by income group, June 2008
- Figure 91: Fast casual restaurant user clusters, by race, June 2008
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- Figure 92: Fast casual restaurant user clusters, by Hispanic origin, June 2008
Appendix: Trade Associations
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