Table of Contents
Introduction and Abbreviations
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- Definition
- Consumer research
- ACORN
- Advertising data
- Abbreviations
Premier Insight
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- Greater market segmentation is required
- New approach to healthy snacking, taking crisps out of the ghetto
- From food minus to food plus
- Crisps need to be repositioned as medium Glycaemic Load
- New product formats
- More seasonality in products needed
- Manufacturers need to keep a beady eye on the trans-fats issue
Executive Summary
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- Obesity issue having a stinging impact
- Niche sectors are seeing growth
- Market segmentation
- Walkers Snack Foods Ltd dominates
- Advertising critical to target children
- Multiple grocers’ stranglehold tightening
- Penetration levels remain high
- A market at a crossroads?
Market Drivers
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- Shrinking number of 15-24-year-olds providing a challenging market
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- Figure 1: UK population breakdown, by age, 2000 and 2005
- Slimming and dieting issue
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- Figure 2: Adults who have felt overweight in the last year, by gender, 2004
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- Figure 3: Adults who are trying to slim, by gender, 2000-04
- Potential consumption occasions are declining
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- Figure 4: Methods consumers would use to lose weight, January 2005
- Crisps’ declining popularity amongst adults as a snack
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- Figure 5: Foods eaten between meals in the preceding month, 2000-04
- Premiumisation is a factor too
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- Figure 6: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2000-04
- A sharp rise in childhood obesity
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- Figure 7: Agreement with statements about eating, 11-14s, 2001-04
- Government White Paper on health – November 2004
- Increase in disposable income for kids
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- Figure 8: Average weekly income of children aged 7-14, by gender and age, 2001-04
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- Figure 9: Average monthly income of children aged 15-16, by gender and age, 2001-04
- Children’s weekly spend increasing with hyper-parenting
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- Figure 10: Average weekly spend, 11-14-year-olds, 2004
- NPD
Market Size and Trends
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- Did 2003 mark a turning point?
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- Figure 11: UK retail volume and value sales of crisps and snacks, 2000-05
- Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of crisps and snacks, by sector, 2000-04
Market Segmentation
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- Crisps
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- Figure 13: UK retail volume and value sales of crisps, 2000-05
- Launch of Sensations helped to establish a premium segment
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- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of crisps, by type, 2000-04
- Sales of low-fat crisps have failed to see significant take-off
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- Figure 15: UK retail sales of lower-fat potato snacks*, 2000-05
- Trend in packaging towards larger bags
- Crisps by flavour
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of standard/regular crisps, by flavour, 2002 and 2004
- Snacks
- Snack sector has spearheaded market decline
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- Figure 17: UK retail volume and value sales of snacks, 2000-05
- Stacking sector increasingly focused on dipping occasions
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- Figure 18: UK retail sales of stacking chips, 2000-05
- Child-specific vs general
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- Figure 19: UK retail sales of savoury snacks in the UK, by type, 2000-04
The Supply Structure
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- Overall market share
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- Figure 20: Manufacturer shares in the UK crisps and snacks market, by value, 2002 and 2004
- Crisps
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- Figure 21: Company shares in the UK crisps market, by value, 2002 and 2004
- Snacks
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- Figure 22: Manufacturer shares in the UK snacks market, by value, 2002 and 2004
- Companies and brands
- Walkers
- KP
- Golden Wonder/Snack Factory
- Procter & Gamble
- Kettle Foods
- Red Mill Snack Foods
- Intersnack
- Quaker Oats
- Seabrook
- Burts
- Jonathan Crisp
- Tayto Ltd
- Tyrells
- Other companies and brands
- Own-label
New Product Development
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- Introduction
- Health-inspired developments
- Low-carb
- Low-fat
- Low-calorie
- Low-salt
- Low-cholesterol
- Higher protein
- Flavour trends
- Cuisine-led
- Premiumisation and greater variety
- Organic
- Packaging
- Targeting men and the adult consumer
- Seasonal/limited editions
- The future
- New Product Briefs
- December 2004
- November
- October
- September
- August
- July
- June
- May
- April
- March
- February
- January
Advertising and Promotion
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- Rising media spend
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- Figure 23: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps and snacks, 2000-04
- Declining market size could see advertisers rein in their spend
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- Figure 24: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps and snacks, 2000-04
- Walkers accounts for almost half of the total spend
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- Figure 25: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on crisps and snacks, by manufacturer and retailers, 2002-04
- Walkers
- Procter & Gamble
- KP
- Golden Wonder
- Why is advertising so important?
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- Figure 26: Agreement with statement ‘I like to buy things seen in adverts on TV’, 7-10 and 11-14s, 2001-04
- Attitudes towards television advertising not so positive amongst adults
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- Figure 27: Agreement with lifestyle statements on advertising, 2001-04
- Below the line
- Multibuy promotions dominate
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- Figure 28: Share of promotions in the savoury/salty snacks market, by type, January-December 2004 (multiple grocers only)
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- Figure 29: Instant win promotions, January-December 2004
- Impulse sales in the independents are critical
Distribution
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- Figure 30: UK retail sales of crisps and snacks in the UK, by type of outlet, 2002 and 2004
- Figure 31: UK retail sales of crisps and snacks in the UK, by type of outlet and product, 2004
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The Consumer – Consumption Trends
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- Potato crisps and potato snacks, and other savoury snacks
- Consumers cutting down on potato crisps and potato snacks
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- Figure 32: Weight of consumption of potato crisps and potato snacks, 2002-04
- Other savoury snacks are spearheading market decline
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- Figure 33: Weight of consumption of other savoury snacks, 2002-04
- Detailed demographics – potato crisps and potato snacks
- All users
- 35-44-year-olds are the greatest users, then usage declines with age
- Retired, older consumers eschew potato crisps and snacks
- Presence of children is a strong discriminator
- Widespread usage throughout GB
- Heavy users
- Men are the heaviest users and heavy usage declines with age
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- Figure 34: Heavy usage of potato crisps and potato snacks, by age, 2004
- Presence of children drives heavy usage
- North/South divide
- Family and pre-/no family lifestages are the heaviest users
- Medium users
- Men are most likely to eat crisps two or three times a week
- AB consumers least likely to be medium users
- The presence of children is not as great an influence
- Low propensity for medium users in London but high in the provinces
- Light users
- Women are most likely to be weight-conscious
- Better-off socio-economic groups are light users
- Childless households are most likely to be light consumers
- Smaller households most likely to be light users
- Londoners are light users
- ABC1 third age and ABC1 retired are most likely to be light users
- Detailed demographics – other savoury snacks
- All users
- Women are more likely than men to consume other savoury snacks
- Other savoury snacks are a mass-market product
- Three quarters of those living in families eat other savoury snacks
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- Figure 35: Consumption of other savoury snacks, by presence children in household, 2004
- Other savoury snacks users are found in the provinces
- Heavy users
- Children are the most important factor
- Medium users
- 22% are medium users
- Household size is again a major factor
- Light users
- Women are most likely to be light users
- ABs are the lightest users
- Concentration in one-person households in South East/East Anglia
- Retireds show a low propensity to be light users…
- …because they are most likely to be non-users
- Product types
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- Figure 36: Crisps and savoury snacks purchased in the last three months, January-February 2005
- The power of brands
- No clear trend towards healthier products
- 17% of consumers purchased a multipack
- Low-fat crisps have a strong feminine appeal
- Pan-fried/hand-cooked crisps appeal to AB consumers
- Biscuit-based snacks popular with younger adults
- Children are a key driver of corn-based snacks
- DVDs and videos drive popcorn sales
- Families drive multipack usage
The Consumer – Usage: Detailed Demographics
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- Weight of usage
- Crisps and potato snacks
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- Figure 37: Penetration of potato crisps and potato snacks, by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, marital status, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
- Other savoury snacks
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- Figure 38: Penetration of other savoury snacks, by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, marital status, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, 2004
- Product type
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- Figure 39: Crisps and savoury snacks purchased in the last three months, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January-February 2005
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- Figure 40: Crisps and savoury snacks purchased in the last three months, by presence of children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January-February 2005
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- Figure 41: Crisps and savoury snacks purchased in the last three months, by working status and household size, January-February 2005
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- Figure 42: Crisps and savoury snacks purchased in the last three months, by region and ACORN category, January-February 2005
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- Figure 43: Crisps and savoury snacks purchased in the last three months, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, January-February 2005
The Consumer – Attitudes and Behaviours
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- Figure 44: Attitudes and behaviour towards crisps and savoury snacks, January-February 2005
- Brand loyalty high
- Snack avoidance as a route to weight loss
- Women are eating fewer bagged snacks to lose weight
- Older age groups that seem the most keen to cut down
- Cutting out bagged snacks as the best way to lose weight
- ABC1 pre-/no family believe it is the best way
- Children, diet and health
- Ethics and morality
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- Figure 45: Terminal education age of those consumers who agree it is wrong to market these products (crisps and snacks) to children, January-February 2005
- Food literacy plays a major part
- Education levels have a significant impact on childhood obesity levels
- Dissonance in consumers’ beliefs and purchasing behaviours
- Multipacks appeal most to consumers with children aged 5-9
- Better value multipacks appeal to budget shoppers
- Crisps and snacks for adult sharing
- ABC1 families and retired offer crisps when entertaining
- Loyalty and premiumisation
- Younger consumers buy the best crisps available
- Assessing key target markets – consumer typologies
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- Figure 46: Consumer typology groups for attitudes towards crisps and snacks, January-February 2005
- Group 1: Snacking Slim (19%)
- Group 2: Crisp Conscious (4%)
- Group 3: Apathetic (52%)
- Group 4: Brand Loyals (25%)
- Snacking Slim and Crisp Conscious have similar purchases
- Opportunities for healthy branding
- A fifth of Apathetics do not buy bagged snacks
- Brand Loyals five times as likely to buy branded crisps
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- Figure 47: Consumer typologies, by type of crisp purchased, January-February 2005
- Half of Brand Loyals have only purchased one or two crisps/snacks types
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- Figure 48: Consumer typologies, by number of crisps types purchased in the last three months, January-February 2005
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The Consumer – Attitudes and Behaviours: Detailed Demographics
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- Figure 49: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January-February 2005
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- Figure 50: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by presence of children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January-February 2005
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- Figure 51: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by working status and household size, January-February 2005
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- Figure 52: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by region and ACORN catgeory, January-February 2005
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- Figure 53: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, January-February 2005
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- Figure 54: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January-February 2005
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- Figure 55: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by presence of children in household, lifestage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January-February 2005
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- Figure 56: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by working status and household size, January-February 2005
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- Figure 57: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by region and ACORN catgeory, January-February 2005
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- Figure 58: Attitudes and behaviours towards crisps and savoury snacks, by media usage, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, January-February 2005
- Detailed demographic breakdown – Consumer typologies
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- Figure 59: Consumer typologies, by gender, age and socio-economic group, January-February 2005
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- Figure 60: Consumer typologies, by ACORN category, lifestage, region, presence of children in household, media usage and Mintel’s Special Groups, January-February 2005
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- Figure 61: Consumer typologies, by commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, January-February 2005
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The Future
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- The future heralds a change of zeitgeist
- Decline in children aged 0-14 will offer manufacturers a challenge
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- Figure 62: Forecast population of children, 2005-10
- Opportunities must reposition crisps and snacks on a healthy platform
- Manufacturers will increasingly turn to the adult market
- Greater opportunities for segmentation
- Limited editions will remain important
- Legislative issues remain unclear
Forecast
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- Market set to see torpid growth
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- Figure 63: Forecast of the crisps and snacks market, by value, 2005-10
- Figure 64: Indexed growth rates of the crisps and snacks market in the UK, AT 2005 prices, 2005-10
- Added-value propositions will aid crisp sales
- Bad news for the market
- Strategies for the market
- Volume sales will lead decline
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- Figure 65: Forecast of the crisps and snacks market, by volume, 2005-10
- Healthier varieties are key
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- Figure 66: Forecast of the crisps and snacks market, in percentage terms, 2005-10
- Factors used in the forecast
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