Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Key issues covered in this Report
- Definition
- Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
- COVID-19: US context
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast with best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2016-26
- Impact of COVID-19 on American Lifestyles
- Redefining work life
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- Figure 2: Post-pandemic work life, by employment, 2021
- Reprioritizing spending
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- Figure 3: Financial stability, 2021
- Refocusing on health and wellness
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- Figure 4: Outlook on mental wellbeing, 2021
- Opportunities and challenges
- Cleaning and sanitation practices will be crucial for post-pandemic brand experiences
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- Figure 5: Outlook on germs, 2021
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- Figure 6: Outlook on brands, 2021
- Different outlooks on post-COVID life provide brands with multiple messaging strategies
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- Figure 7: Outlook on post-COVID life, 2021
America Today – What You Need to Know
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- Wellness and identity take center stage as the country grapples with COVID and the climate crisis
- US population ages and reduces in size, growing importance of immigration
- Economic recovery continues, but with a few bumps in the road
America Today – What Is Impacting 2021
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- “Prepare for the worst” mentality reignited
- COVID-19
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- Figure 8: Coronavirus exposure concern in the US, January 2021- August 2021
- Climate change
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- Figure 9: Outlook on sustainability, 2021
- Corporate trust and accountability
- Rethinking work
- New standards for working from home
- Commute and traffic
- 2021 Trend to Watch: Wellbeing and Identity
- Introduction to Trend Drivers
- Wellbeing and Health Undefined
- Identity and Coming Together
America Today – The People
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- American population trends
- Population growth continues to slow
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- Figure 10: Annual growth rate of the us population, 2010-20
- Declining births and the importance of immigration
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- Figure 11: Annual births and general fertility rate, 2010-20
- Deaths are up and life expectancy is declining
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- Figure 12: Number of deaths, 2010-20
- Figure 13: Life expectancy at birth, 2010-20
- Changing American households
- Fewer married couples and families with kids
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- Figure 14: Households, by number of members, 2010 and 2020
- Figure 15: Households, by presence of related children, 2010-20
- Figure 16: Married share of the population, 2010-20
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- Figure 17: Median age at first marriage, 2010-20
- Variations in households by race and Hispanic origin
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- Figure 18: Households with related children under 18 in the household, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2020
America Today – The Economy
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- Economic recovery
- GDP surpasses pre-pandemic high
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- Figure 19: GDP change from previous period and consumption expenditures, Q1 2010-Q2 2021
- Unemployment remains elevated, but recovery continues
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- Figure 20: Unemployment, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2010-January 2021
- Labor shortages restrain the economic recovery
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- Figure 21: Labor force participation rate (detailed), January 2010-January 2021
- Inflationary fears are realized
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- Figure 22: Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), January 2010-January 2021
- Select states push minimum wage up, inflation erodes federal minimum wage buying power
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- Figure 23: 2020 minimum wage – Select states, August 2021
- Figure 24: Real value of the US federal minimum wage in 2009 dollars, 2009-2020
- Consumer impact
- Consumer confidence takes two steps forward, one step back
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- Figure 25: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2010-July 2021
- Homeownership spike appears to be over as pandemic wanes and prices remain high
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- Figure 26: Homeownership rate for the us, percent, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted, Q1 2010-Q2 2021
- Figure 27: Median sales price of houses sold for the us, dollars, quarterly, not seasonally adjusted, Q1 2010-Q2 2021
- Consumers see improving financial situations, overall
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- Figure 28: Change in financial situation, 2021
- Consumers are looking to utilize their pandemic savings, particularly on travel
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- Figure 29: Future spending behaviors, 2021
Total Market Overview
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- Spending in consumer categories to resume pre-pandemic growth pattern
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- Figure 30: Total US retail sales and forecast with best- and worst-case scenarios, at current prices, 2016-26
- Largest categories of spending: housing, healthcare, transportation
- Housing
- Healthcare
- Transportation
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- Figure 31: Consumer spending by category, at current prices ($bn), 2021
- Fastest growing categories, next five years
- Leisure and Entertainment
- Foodservice
- Vacations and Tourism
- Slowest growing categories, next five years
- In-home Food
- Health and Vision
- Household care
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- Figure 32: Market growth by category, 2021-26
Category Review – Healthcare
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- Market overview
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- Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of healthcare products and services, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19: Healthcare Services
- Impact of COVID-19: Healthcare Products
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Transportation
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- Market overview
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- Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of transportation, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Home and Garden
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- Market overview
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- Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of home and garden market, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Dining Out
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- Market overview
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- Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places*, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – In-home Food
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- Market overview
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- Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of in-home food, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Leisure and Entertainment
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- Market overview
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- Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Vacations and Tourism
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- Market overview
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- Figure 39: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of vacations and tourism, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Clothing and Accessories
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- Market overview
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- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Beauty and Personal Care
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- Market overview
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- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2016-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Alcoholic Beverages (Away from Home)
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- Market overview
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- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of away from home alcoholic beverages, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Alcoholic drinks (In-home)
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- Market overview
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- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of alcoholic drinks (in-home), at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Non-Alcoholic Beverages
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- Market overview
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- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales non-alcoholic beverages, at current prices, 2021-25
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Household Care
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- Market overview
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- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of household care products market, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
Category Review – Technology
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- Market overview
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- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast value sales of technology hardware and communications, at current prices, 2021-26
- What you need to know
- Impact of COVID-19
- Challenges
- Opportunities
- Meet the expert
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- The past year included changes and challenges, but also achievements
- COVID-19 has revolutionized the American workforce
- Consumers plan to be financially cautious and spend selectively
- Around 16% of Americans do not plan to get a COVID vaccine
- Extra clean and sanitation will be key for post-pandemic brand experiences
- The post-pandemic world offers the chance to resume normal life or start fresh
Life Events in the Past Year
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- Despite a turbulent year, some Americans still experienced personal achievements
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- Figure 47: Life events experienced, 2021
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- Figure 48: Life events experienced, by race and Hispanic origin, by financial status, 2021
- Despite reports of mass relocations, it remains a small percentage of Americans who moved in the past year
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- Figure 49: Life events experienced, relocations, 2021
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- Figure 50: Life events experienced, relocations – by residential type, 2021
- Gen Z and Millennial adults are the most likely to have relocated in the past year
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- Figure 51: Life events experienced, relocations – by generation, 2021
- Nearly six in 10 people experienced burnout in the past year, and one in 10 started therapy
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- Figure 52: Outlook on mental wellbeing, 2021
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- Figure 53: Life events experienced – Starting therapy/counseling, by generation, 2021
- Looking ahead to 2022, Americans expect more relocations and less pet adoptions and retirements
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- Figure 54: Expected life events, 2021
Impact of COVID-19 on Work
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- Employed Americans are now split between working from home and working on-site
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- Figure 55: COVID-19 employment, 2021
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- Figure 56: Work-from-home expectations, by COVID-19 employment, 2021
- Americans expect their work to continue to be more flexible moving forward
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- Figure 57: Post-pandemic work life, by employment, 2021
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- Figure 58: Dressing for your hybrid life – Ann Taylor, 2021
Impact of COVID-19 on Finances
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- Nearly four in 10 people feel less financially stable compared to pre-pandemic
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- Figure 59: Financial stability, 2021
- Gen Z adults and people residing in urban areas are more likely to feel a financial decline due to COVID-19
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- Figure 60: Financial stability, by generation and residential type, 2021
- Hispanic Americans have experienced unique financial struggles during COVID-19
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- Figure 61: Financial stability, by race and Hispanic origin, 2021
- Seven in 10 people received at least one COVID-19 stimulus check
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- Figure 62: Stimulus check receipt, 2021
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- Figure 63: Stimulus check usage, 2021
- The majority of Americans plan to be cautious with their spending post-COVID
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- Figure 64: Post-pandemic spending, 2021
- Over the next year, Americans plan to use their extra money on saving for the future and travel
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- Figure 65: Planned spending for the next year, 2021
- Likelihood to use extra money toward financial planning varies by generation and gender
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- Figure 66: Planned spending for the next year – Financial planning, by generation, 2021
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- Figure 67: Planned spending for the next year – Financial planning, by gender, 2021
Outlook on COVID-19 Vaccines
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- About 16% of Americans do not plan to get vaccinated
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- Figure 68: Vaccination status, 2021
- Gen Z adults, women and Black and Hispanic Americans are the populations least likely to be fully vaccinated
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- Figure 69: Vaccination status, by generation, 2021
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- Figure 70: Vaccination status, by gender and by ethnicity and Hispanic origin, 2021
- More than five in 10 people fear the country will never achieve herd immunity
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- Figure 71: Outlook on vaccinations, 2021
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- Figure 72: Outlook on vaccinations, by vaccination status, 2021
Brand Experiences Post-COVID
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- The majority of Americans want brands to continue extra COVID cleaning and consider vaccination requirements
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- Figure 73: Outlook on brands, 2021
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- Figure 74: Outlook on brands, by vaccination status, 2021
- The pandemic has made six in 10 people more concerned about exposure to germs
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- Figure 75: Outlook on germs, 2021
- Half of consumers agree there are certain things they don’t see themselves doing post-pandemic due to health concerns
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- Figure 76: Post-COVID habits, 2021
Outlook on Life Post-Pandemic
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- Americans are divided on whether the pandemic has changed the way they plan to live their life
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- Figure 77: Outlook on post-COVID life, 2021
- For some, a new life path post-COVID may involve social awareness or activism
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- Figure 78: Outlook on post-COVID life, by gender, by ethnicity and Hispanic origin, 2021
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- Figure 79: Social inequities, by gender, by ethnicity and Hispanic origin, 2021
- Most Americans will prioritize reconnecting with friends and loved ones post-pandemic
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- Figure 80: Outlook on socializing, 2021
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- Figure 81: Outlook on socializing, by generation, 2021
- The majority of Americans will prioritize traveling over spending time in their local community
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- Figure 82: Outlook on travel, 2021
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of total market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 86: Total US retail sales and forecast of housing, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of health, OTC and vision, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 88: Total US retail sales and forecast of health, OTC and vision, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 89: Total US retail sales and forecast of transport, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 90: Total US retail sales and forecast of transport, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 91: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 92: Total US retail sales and forecast of personal finance, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 93: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communication, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 94: Total US retail sales and forecast of technology and communication, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 95: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 96: Total US retail sales and forecast of home and garden, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 97: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 98: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, at inflatioin-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 99: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 100: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-home food, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 101: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 102: Total US retail sales and forecast of leisure and entertainment, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 103: Total US retail sales and forecast of vacations and tourism, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 104: Total US retail sales and forecast of vacations and tourism, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 105: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 106: Total US retail sales and forecast of clothing and accessories, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 107: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 108: Total US retail sales and forecast of beauty and personal care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 109: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (out of home), at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 110: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (out of home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
- Figure 111: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (in home), at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 112: Total US retail sales and forecast of alcoholic beverages (in home), at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 113: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic beverages, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 114: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-alcoholic beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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- Figure 115: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at current prices, 2016-26
- Figure 116: Total US retail sales and forecast of household care, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2016-26
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