Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- Spending expectations
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Overall shopping participation
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Where BTS shoppers shop
- What you want to know
- What we see
- When BTS shoppers shop
- What you want to know
- What we see
- What consumers plan to buy
- What you want to know
- What we see
- Shopping influencers
- What you want to know
- What we see
- What consumers want from retailers and why
- What you want to know
- What we see
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Spending expectations for 2019 were high, but fell below 2018
- Majority of BTS budgets spent on clothes and electronics
- Youth population shrinking
- Macroeconomic factors bode well for BTS, at least for now
- Enrollment levels have not recovered from the 2011 peak
Market Size
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- Fewer shoppers in the market led to a reduction in spend for 2019/20
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- Figure 1: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2014-19
- College spending represents two thirds of the total
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- Figure 2: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2014-19
- Many factors could impact spend for 2020/21 but expenditures should go up slightly
Market Breakdown
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- Expectations for 2019 per-household spending reached new heights
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- Figure 3: Consumers’ expected back-to-school (elementary-high school) and back-to-college average spending per household, in current dollars, 2014-19
- Most money is spent on clothing and electronics
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- Figure 4: Expected back-to-school (K-12) household share of spend, by category, 2019
- Figure 5: Expected back-to-college household share of spend, by category, 2019
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- Figure 6: Consumers' expected back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending per household, by primary category, in current dollars, 2019
Market Factors
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- The population
- Households with children drop below 30%
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- Figure 7: Share of households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
- Number of school-aged kids set to shrink
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- Figure 8: Population school-aged children, by age, 2013-23
- More children living in atypical arrangements
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- Figure 9: Living arrangements of children under age 18, 2008 and 2018
- The economy
- Positive economic climate should help to bolster upcoming BTS season
- Consumer confidence high, unemployment low
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- Figure 10: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-November 2019
- Median household income returns to pre-recession levels
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- Figure 11: Median household income, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2007-18
- Figure 12: Current financial situation, by marital status by parental status of under 18 children, May 2019
- Education
- Parents need to be careful about budgeting as raising kids isn’t cheap
- School enrollment up year over year, but down since the 2011 peak
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- Figure 13: Share of school enrollment of the population 3 years old and over, by level, 2018
- Figure 14: Average published charges (enrollment weighted) for full-time undergraduates, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Online course offerings increase; online students get more local
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Celebrities, catchy tunes and visualization tools all a part of 2019/20 campaigns
- Don’t forget the teachers
- Generation Z is a complex and dynamic bunch
What Happened in 2019/20?
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- How the big three won the season
- Advertiser comparison
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- Figure 15: Top three retailers shopped in 2019/20, digital advertising spend and impression comparison – all devices and formats, July – August 2019
- Figure 16: Top three retailers shopped in 2019/20, digital media mix comparison based on share of impressions – all devices and formats, July-August 2019
- Walmart
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- Figure 17: Walmart video ad, September 2019
- Figure 18: Walmart Facebook ad, July 2019
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- Figure 19: Walmart Facebook post, targeted to college students, June 2019
- Figure 20: Walmart video ads, targeted to college students, July 2019
- Target
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- Figure 21: Target video ad, July 2019
- Figure 22: Target Facebook carousel post, targeted to parents, July 2019
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- Figure 23: Target video ad, first day of kindergarten, August 2019
- Figure 24: Target Facebook carousel post, targeted to college students, August 2019
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- Figure 25: Target product-specific Facebook ads, July/August 2019
- Amazon
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- Figure 26: Amazon :30 video ad, July 2019
- Figure 27: Amazon Facebook ad, July 2019
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- Figure 28: Amazon :15 video ad - English, July 2019
- Figure 29: Amazon :15 video ad - Spanish, July 2019
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- Figure 30: Amazon Prime Day video ad, July 2019
- Figure 31: Amazon digital ads for Amazon Student Prime, August 2019
- Other retailer examples
- Famous Footwear
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- Figure 32: Famous Footwear Facebook ad, July 2019
- Office Depot
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- Figure 33: Office Depot video ad, “Ready For This,” July 2019
- Figure 34: Office Depot promotional video ad featuring Sabrina Carpenter, July 2019
- American Eagle
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- Figure 35: American Eagle video, July 2019
- Sandy Hook Promise
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- Figure 36: Sandy Hook Promise, “Back-to-School Essentials” video public service announcement, July 2019
What to Watch
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- Teachers are an opportunity target
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- Figure 37: Walmart Facebook post, July 2018
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- Figure 38: Target Facebook post, July 2019
- Figure 39: Staples Twitter post, July 2019
- Understanding Gen Z values
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- Figure 40: Best ways for brands to represent values, any rank, March 2019
- Sustainability
- Leading with conviction
- Cause marketing
- Understanding Gen Z subcultures
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Intended participation levels for upcoming year show signs of retraction
- Balanced approach to shopping
- Parents start shopping in June
- Mass merchandisers and Amazon win the season
- Most shopping occurs in the store
- Clothes and supplies most likely to be purchased new
- Recommendations from others drive purchasing decisions
- BTS shopping is fun
- Elevating the convenience factor, while being competitive on price
Shopping Participation
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- Key highlights
- Intent to participate tracking below 2019
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- Figure 41: Shopping participation – Parents versus college students, 2019/20 compared to 2020/21, November 2019
- Parents
- For the 2019 school year, nearly all parents participated with most shopping conducted for younger children
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- Figure 42: Shopping participation for 2019/20 – Parents, by gender, November 2019
- For the 2019 school year, a majority of parents bought new
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- Figure 43: Shopping approach for 2019/20 – Parents, November 2019
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- Figure 44: Shopping approach for 2019/20 – Parents, by household income, November 2019
- Milestone years could signify additional needs
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- Figure 45: Shopping approach for 2020/21 – Parents, November 2019
- College students
- Full-time undergraduate students represent majority, tend to spend more
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- Figure 46: Current college student type, November 2019
- College students bought fewer new items for the current school year
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- Figure 47: Shopping approach for 2019/20 – College students, November 2019
- On campus students slightly more likely to participate in 2020
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- Figure 48: College student living arrangements, by intent to participate in 2020/21, November 2019
Shopping Timeframe
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- Key highlights
- Parents start shopping sooner
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- Figure 49: Shopping timeframe – Parents versus college students, November 2019
- The impact of Amazon Prime Day
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- Figure 50: Amazon Prime day impact – Parents versus college students, November 2019
- Tax-free holidays give shoppers a break
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- Figure 51: Amazon geo-targeted email, 2018
- Parents
- Millennial parents get a jump on things
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- Figure 52: Shopping timeframe – Parents, by generation, November 2019
Retailers Shopped
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- Big three win again
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- Figure 53: Top three retailers shopped – Parents versus college students, November 2019
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- Figure 54: Repertoire of retailers shopped, November 2019
- Parents
- So many stores, so little time
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- Figure 55: Retailers shopped – Parents, November 2019
- Dads value simplicity while moms do heavy lifting at clothing retailers
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- Figure 56: Retailers shopped – Parents, by gender, November 2019
- Competition fierce for high-income earners; opportunity to win more suburban shoppers
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- Figure 57: Retailers shopped – Parents, by household income, November 2019
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- Figure 58: Retailers shopped – Parents, by area, November 2019
- Black consumers head to dollar and discount stores
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- Figure 59: Retailers shopped – Parents, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2019
- College students
- Students favor retailers that cater to their budgets
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- Figure 60: Retailers shopped – College students, November 2019
- Target winning with collegiate crowd
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- Figure 61: Retailers shopped – College students, by gender, November 2019
- May be worth it to have a store near a college campus
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- Figure 62: Retailers shopped – College students, by living arrangements, November 2019
Shopping Method
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- Key highlights
- Online and mobile shopping gain ground
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- Figure 63: Multichannel versus single-channel shopping – Parents versus college students, November 2019
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- Figure 64: In-store buying – Parents versus college students, November 2019
- Parents
- 40% consolidate all shopping to the store
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- Figure 65: Shopping method – Parents, November 2019
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- Figure 66: Shopping method – Parents, by generation, November 2019
- College students
- More researching done online
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- Figure 67: Shopping method – College students, November 2019
Items to Purchase
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- Key highlights
- Parents plan to buy more new items than do college students
- Parents
- Future outlook looks good as intent to purchase trends up
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- Figure 68: Items to purchase – Parents, November 2019 and 2018
- Moms take the lead, but dads aren’t far behind
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- Figure 69: Items to purchase – Parents, by gender, November 2019
- If they look good, we look good
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- Figure 70: Attitudes regarding shopping approach – parents, by generation, November 2019
- College students
- Fewer new purchases planned
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- Figure 71: Items to purchase – College students, November 2019 and 2018
- Men and their toys; women and their beauty supplies
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- Figure 72: Attitudes regarding shopping approach – College students, by gender, November 2019
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- Figure 73: Purchasing responsibility – College students, by gender, November 2019
- It’s all about thriftiness unless the parents are paying
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- Figure 74: Items to purchase, by purchasing responsibility – College students, November 2019
- Electronics remain important; smart speakers and wearables on the “want” list
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- Figure 75: Electronics to purchase – College students, November 2019
Shopping Influencers
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- Key highlights
- Shoppers lean on others’ recommendations when making decisions
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- Figure 76: Influence of recommendations and media – Parents versus college students, November 2019
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- Figure 77: Influence of media – Parents versus college students, November 2019
- Parents
- Children are the top influencer by far
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- Figure 78: Target back-to-school Facebook post, targeted to parents, August 2019
- Figure 79: Target back-to-school Facebook video post, targeted to kids, July 2019
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- Figure 80: Ryman Stationery Twitter post, July 2019
- Figure 81: Shopping influencers – Parents, November 2019
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- Figure 82: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping – Parents, November 2019
- Everybody loves a good deal, but brand familiarity instills confidence in consumers when deals aren’t available
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- Figure 83: Influence of promotions/coupons – Parents, by household income, November 2019
- Dads actively seek guidance
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- Figure 84: Select shopping influencers – Parents, by gender, November 2019
- College students
- For the college crowd, what their friends think and do matters
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- Figure 85: Shopping influencers – College students, November 2019
- TikTok emerges onto the social media scene
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- Figure 86: Twitter post about TikTok’s new ecommerce features, November 2019
- Figure 87: Social media influence, by social media sites visited daily – College students, November 2019
Attitudes toward Back-to-School Shopping
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- Key highlights
- BTS time conjures a range of emotions that marketers can play to
- Parents
- Parents and kids bond while shopping
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- Figure 88: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping - Parents, by generation and race and Hispanic origin, November 2019
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- Figure 89: Attitudes toward time spent with children during bts - Parents, by generation and race and Hispanic origin, November 2019
- Hustle and bustle of BTS season not embraced by all
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- Figure 90: BTS is stressful – agree, Parents, by household income and number of children in the household, November 2019
- College students
- Female students love to shop for BTS
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- Figure 91: Attitudes toward back-to-school shopping – College students, by gender, November 2019
Desired Improvements
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- Key highlights
- Parents want to save time; college students want to save money
- Parents
- Convenience in all aspects will resonate with busy parents
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- Figure 92: Desired improvements - Parents, November 2019
- Dads appreciate tools and guidance that help them shop for their kids
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- Figure 93: Desired improvements - Parents, by gender, November 2019
- Winning Millennial parents with tech and service
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- Figure 94: Desired improvements - Parents, by generation, November 2019
- Working parents also opt for convenience in all forms
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- Figure 95: Desired improvements - Parents, by employment status, November 2019
- Parents want to get the right items fast
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- Figure 96: TURF Analysis on desired improvements - Parents, November 2019
- College students
- Bring on the discounts
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- Figure 97: Desired improvements – College students, November 2019
- Women more vocal than men about wanting some improvements at retail
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- Figure 98: Desired improvements – College students, by gender, November 2019
- Saving money and getting their online orders quickly are what college kids want
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- Figure 99: TURF Analysis on desired improvements – College students, November 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- TURF Methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 100: Consumers' planned total back-to-school spending (K-12 and college), in current dollars, 2014-19
- Figure 101: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) spending, in current dollars, 2014-19
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- Figure 102: Consumers' planned back-to-school (K-12) spending, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2014-19
- Figure 103: Consumers' planned back-to-college spending, in current dollars, 2014-19
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- Figure 104: Consumers' planned back-to-college spending, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2014-19
- Figure 105: Household spending by category, K-12, 2012-19
- Figure 106: Household spending by category, back-to-college, 2012-19
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- Figure 107: Consumers' expected back-to-school (K-12) and back-to-college spending per household, by category, in current dollars, 2019
- Figure 108: School enrollment of the population 3 years old and over, by level, 2008-18
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 109: In-person versus online student status, November 2019
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- Figure 110: College student living arrangements, November 2019
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- Figure 111: Shopping timeframe – College students, by gender, November 2019
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- Figure 112: Retailers shopped, by shopping method - Parents, November 2019
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- Figure 113: Retailers shopped, by shopping method – College students, November 2019
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- Figure 114: 2020/21 shopping approach, by items to purchase - Parents, November 2019
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- Figure 115: 2020/21 Retailers shopped, by items to purchase - Parents, November 2019
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- Figure 116: 2020/21 Retailers shopped, by items to purchase – College students, November 2019
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- Figure 117: Table - TURF Analysis of desired improvements - Parents, November 2019
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- Figure 118: Table - TURF Analysis of desired improvements – College students, November 2019
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- Figure 119: Tax-free holidays by state, 2019
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