Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
-
- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
-
- CSD market shows moderate growth, but FDMx sales continue to fall
- Carbonated drinks declining in FDMx, seltzer is growing
- Market leaders are struggling in FDMx
- Encroaching competition and bad press hurting sales, but inspiring innovation
- Health trends negatively impact sales
- Innovations will drive sales
- New products emerge but manufacturers need to protect flagship brands
- Coca-Cola and PepsiCo are trying to balance new products while leveraging key brands
- Key demographics influencing market: youth, gender, and ethnicity
- Teens and young adults are core demographic, but declining
- Current pressures on the teen market include:
- Income related to CSD consumption
- Women are leaving the category, but men are migrating to diet sodas
- Ethnicity key factor in consumption and brand choice
- Nutrition does not sell CSDs of any type
Insights and Opportunities
-
- The challenge
- What are manufacturers doing?
- What should manufacturers be doing?
- Protect the core brand
- Remind consumers why they like your product
- Don’t mess with success
- Take control of brand perceptions
- Entice new consumers by taking steps toward a healthier soda
- Eliminate high-fructose corn syrup and move to natural, but less, sugar
- Go after new consumers for healthy (and yes, diet) drinks
Fast Forward Trends
-
- Consistency
- What's it about?
- What we've seen
- How does consistency apply to carbonated beverages?
- Play Ethic
- What's it about?
- What we've seen
- How does this play ethic apply to carbonated beverages?
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Key points
- Health concerns and desire for new products are key factors for decline
-
- Figure 1: Total U.S. sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
-
- Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of carbonated beverages at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
- Wal-Mart sales
Competitive Context
-
- Key points
- U.S. consumers want healthier beverages
- Energy and health/function—competition and innovation driver
- PepsiCo poised for success
- Evaporated cane juice, caffeine, and natural flavor changing landscape
- Increase the natural
- And the less natural
- CSDs no longer available in schools
- Competitive beverages
-
- Figure 3: U.S. sales and forecast of non-alcoholic beverages, at current prices, by segment, 2002-12
Segment Performance
-
- Key points
- CSD segments are changing
-
- Figure 4: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
- Figure 5: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2002-12
- Sales of carbonated beverages, by segment
-
- Figure 6: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of carbonated beverages, at current prices, by segment, 2002-12
Segment Performance—Regular Carbonated Beverages
-
- Key points
- Regular sodas blamed for many health problems
- Competition getting stronger
- Growth depends on appealing to Hispanics, blacks, teens and adults aged 18-24
- And targeting consumers who will age out of the energy drink segment
- Sales of regular carbonated beverages
-
- Figure 7: U.S. sales and forecast regular carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
Segment Performance—Diet Carbonated Beverages
-
- Key points
- Fear and scepticism towards artificial sweeteners is a road-block to popular acceptance
- Health benefits of diet soda are questionable
- Consumers like flavor and caffeine in diet sodas
- Sales of diet carbonated beverages
-
- Figure 8: U.S. sales and forecast of diet carbonated beverages, at current prices, 2002-12
Segment Performance—Seltzers
-
- Key points
- Bubbles without guilt
- Sales of tonic, seltzer, and club soda
-
- Figure 9: U.S. sales and forecast of tonic, seltzer, and club soda, at current prices, 2002-12
Retail Channels—Supermarket, Drug and Other Stores
-
- Key points
- Discount and supercenters continue to take share from supermarkets
- Decreased consumption reflected most in supermarkets
- Drug stores and other channels show robust growth
-
- Figure 10: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages, by retail channel, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 11: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages at supermarkets, 2002-07
- Figure 12: U.S. sales of carbonated beverages at drug stores, 2002-07
Retail Channels—Convenience Stores
-
- Key points
- Convenience stores growing in carbonated drink sales
-
- Figure 13: Carbonated beverage sales in convenience stores, 2005-07
Retail Channels—Natural Channel/Spins
-
- Key points
- Natural stores showing growth
-
- Figure 14: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated beverages, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
- Natural channel sales by segment
-
- Figure 15: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated beverages, by segment, 2005 and 2007
- Natural supermarket channel sales soda
-
- Figure 16: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sodas, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
- Sugar-sweetened versus fruit juice-sweetened soda
-
- Figure 17: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sodas, by type of sweetener, 2005 and 2007
- Organic soda sales
-
- Figure 18: Natural product supermarket retail sales of organic sodas, 2005 and 2007
- Natural supermarket channel sales of sparkling water
-
- Figure 19: Natural product supermarket retail sales of sparkling water, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
- Brand sales
- Carbonated beverages
-
- Figure 20: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, 2005 and 2007
- Sparkling water
-
- Figure 21: Manufacturer brand natural supermarket sales of sparkling water, 2005 and 2007
- Figure 22: Natural product supermarket retail sales of carbonated beverages, at current and constant prices, 2005-07
Market Drivers
-
- Health concerns
-
- Figure 23: New diabetes cases, by age, 2005
- Figure 24: Percentage of U.S. population over the age of 20 who are obese, 2001-07
-
- Figure 25: Prevalence of overweight among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1999-2004
- Figure 26: Reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago, February 2007
- Healthy lifestyles
- Demographics and changing tastes
-
- Figure 27: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
- Figure 28: Population, by age, 2003-13
Leading Companies
-
- Key points
- Leading companies diversifying into non-carbonated beverages to counter declining FDMx sales in carbonated drinks
-
- Figure 29: Sales of leading carbonated beverage companies at FDMx, 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—Regular Carbonated Beverages
-
- Key points
- Coca-Cola sees growth with Fanta and Seagram’s
- PepsiCo flag brands also falling but Mug and Sierra Mist do well
-
- Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of regular carbonated beverages in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—Diet Carbonated Beverages
-
- Key points
- Coca-Cola’s diet brands are holding steady, but growth comes from male-oriented Coke Zero
- Pepsi One was less successful but Diet Mountain Dew is going strong
- Cadbury Schweppes/Dr Pepper Snapple Group sees modest declines in FDMx sales
- What can manufacturers do to grow this segment?
- Growth requires new markets—look to men
- Persuade consumers these are safe…build a better product
- Innovation occurring among major manufacturers
-
- Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of diet carbonated beverages in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Share—Seltzers
-
- Key points
- Seltzer on the verge of trendy
-
- Figure 32: FDMx brand sales of seltzers in the U.S., 2005 and 2007
Brand Qualities
-
- Key points
- Helping consumers re-embrace brands
- Mountain Dew and Dr. Pepper focus on youth
- Coke Zero and Diet Pepsi Max battle it out over young male demographic
- Cadbury licenses beverage brands to food companies…
- …and focuses on Hispanic market
Innovation and Innovators
-
- Key points
-
- Figure 33: New carbonated drink products in the U.S., by company, 2002-08
- Figure 34: New non-alcoholic drink products in the U.S., by company, 2002-08
- Pepsi's widening carbonated beverage portfolio
- Mountain Dew Touts “Game Fuel”
- Coconut and pomegranate current flavor trends
- Less plastic, less waste
Advertising and Promotion
-
- New media even for older demographic
-
- Figure 35: 7UpTelevision ad, 2007
-
- Figure 36: Coca-Cola Zero Television ad, 2007
- Figure 37: Dr. Pepper Television ad, 2007
-
- Figure 38: Pepsi Diet MaxTelevision ad, 2007
Consumption Trends—Adult Consumers
-
- Regular colas
- Diet colas
- Other “regular” carbonated beverages
- Other “diet” carbonated beverages
- Regular soda
- Diet soda
- Key points
- Health concerns drive consumers away from carbonated drinks
- Perpetual dieting
- Women are leaving the category
-
- Figure 39: Trended consumption of regular and diet soda—adults, 2002-07
-
- Figure 40: Trended consumption of regular and diet cola—adults, by gender, 2002-07
-
- Figure 41: Mean number carbonated beverages consumed in past seven days, by gender, age, race/ethnicity and household income, January-November 2007
-
- Figure 42: Regular soda consumption current vs. one year ago, March 2008
-
- Figure 43: Diet soda consumption current vs. one year ago, March 2008
-
- Figure 44: Reasons for drinking less regular soda, March 2008
Income a Key Differentiator in Consumer Choice
-
- Key points
- Healthy living is easier with higher incomes
-
- Figure 45: Consumption of carbonated beverages, by type and income, May 2006-June 2007
-
- Figure 46: Volume of consumption of carbonated beverages, by type and income, May 2006-June 2007
Teen Consumption
-
- Key points
- Teens continue to be top CSD demographic
- The youngest consumers don’t drink much, but they learn fast
-
- Figure 47: Consumption of carbonated drinks—children, teens and adults, by age, May 2006-June 2007
- Figure 48: Trended consumption of regular and diet soda—teens, 2002-07
- The big drinkers in the category are moving away
-
- Figure 49: Trended mean number of glasses of soda consumed per week—teens, 2002-07
- Teen brand preferences
-
- Figure 50: Teen regular cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
-
- Figure 51: Teen regular non-cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
- Figure 52: Teen diet cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
-
- Figure 53: Teen diet non-cola brand preferences, by gender, January-November 2007
Race and Ethnicity
-
- Key points
- Culture makes a difference in carbonated beverage consumption
- Consumption decreasing/following overall trends
-
- Figure 54: Consumption of carbonated beverages, by race/ethnicity, January-November 2007
- Figure 55: Consumption of carbonated beverages—black respondents, 2003-07
- Figure 56: Consumption of carbonated beverages—Hispanics, 2003-07
-
- Figure 57: Mean number carbonated beverages consumed in past seven days, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
Attitudes and Motivations
-
- Health beliefs
- Key points
- Black health beliefs coincide with consumption
-
- Figure 58: health concerns about regular and diet soda, by race/ethnicity, march 2008
- Mothers most concerned about health
-
- Figure 59: Health concerns about regular and diet soda, by moms, march 2008
Consumption of Substitute Beverages
-
- Key points
- Dichotomy: Rise of sugary caffeine and pure water among teens
- Functional beverages are often CSD substitutes
-
- Figure 60: Consumption of selected non-carbonated beverages, by gender, March 2008
- Figure 61: Consumption of selected non-carbonated beverages, by age, March 2008
-
- Figure 62: Trended mean number of glasses of soda and competing drinks consumed per week—adults, 2002-07
- Figure 63: Trended mean number of glasses of soda and competing drinks consumed per week—teens, 2002-07
Cluster Analysis—Weight Watchers, Everyday Soda Drinkers, Soda Enthusiasts
-
- Key points
- Weight Watchers
- Everyday (core) Soda Drinkers
- Soda Enthusiasts
- Cluster tables and demographics
-
- Figure 64: Health concerns and attitudes about soda, by clusters, March 2008
- Figure 65: Which of the following statements describe you?, by clusters, March 2008
- Figure 66: Have you bought any of the following brands of carbonated beverages in the last three months?, by clusters, March 2008
-
- Figure 67: by clusters, March 2008
- Figure 6: For the next question, please think about how much diet soda you drink during a typical week. Compared to a year ago, would you say you drink…?, by clusters, March 2008
-
- Figure 68: Carbonated drinks clusters, by gender, March 2008
- Figure 69: Carbonated drinks clusters, by age, March 2008
-
- Figure 70: Carbonated drinks clusters, by income, March 2008
- Figure 71: Carbonated drinks clusters, by race, March 2008
-
- Figure 72: Carbonated drinks clusters, by Hispanic origin, March 2008
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer Groups
-
- Key points
-
- Figure 73: Custom consumer groups, March 2008
-
- Figure 74: Custom consumer groups and identification and CSDs, March 2008
IRI/Builders Panel Data
-
- Consumer insights—regular and diet carbonated soft drinks
- Carbonated soft drinks
- Regular soft drinks
- Purchase measures—Regular CSD
-
- Figure 75: Key purchase measures for regular soft drinks, sector and major brands, 2007*
- Low-calorie soft drinks
-
- Figure 76: Key purchase measures for low-calorie soft drinks, sector and major brands, 2007*
Appendix: IRI/Builders Panel Data Definitions
Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
-
- Consumption data by key demographics
-
- Figure 77: Trended mean number of glasses of soda consumed per week—adults, 2002-07
-
- Figure 78: Consumption of carbonated drinks, by gender, May 2006-June 2007
- Changes in CSD consumption from a year ago
-
- Figure 79: Changes in consumption from a year ago of regular and diet sodas, by gender, March 2008
- Consumer Regular and Diet Cola Brand Preferences by Ethnicity
-
- Figure 80: Regular cola brand preferences, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
-
- Figure 81: Diet cola brand preferences, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Colas by Age
-
- Figure 82: Regular cola brand preferences, by age, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Colas by Income
-
- Figure 83: Regular cola brand preferences, by income, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Non-Colas by Gender and Ethnicity
-
- Figure 84: Regular non-cola brand preferences, by gender and race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Regular Non-Colas by Age
-
- Figure 85: Regular non-cola brand preferences, by age, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Diet Non-Colas by Gender and Ethnicity
-
- Figure 86: Diet non-cola brand preferences, by gender and race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Sparkling Water, Seltzers, and Natural Sodas by Ethnicity
-
- Figure 87: Sparkling water, seltzer, and natural soda preference, by race/ethnicity, May 2006-June 2007
- Consumer Brand Preferences in Sparkling Water, Seltzers, and Natural Sodas by Income
-
- Figure 88: Sparkling water, seltzer, and natural soda preference, by income level, May 2006-June 2007
Appendix: Trade Associations
Back to top